Inventory·The most valuable hot spots of the week
This week, crude oil and PTA started roller coaster mode, another 600,000-ton polyester project was put into production, H&M’s sales in China fell by 28%, and spandex prices are still rising!
Let’s take a look at what’s new this week!
Crude oil and PTA start roller coaster mode
2021 On the evening of July 6, the Biden administration held talks with officials from Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates, hoping to reach an agreement to increase production to prevent oil prices from rising too quickly. The market was worried about the potential risk of a price war among OPEC+ oil-producing countries due to differences, and international oil prices hit a record high. The biggest drop since late May. NYMEX crude oil futures 08 contract fell by US$1.79/barrel to 73.37; ICE Brent oil futures 09 contract fell by US$2.63/barrel to 74.53, a drop of 3.41%, the largest decline since mid-May.
And what followed was the collapse of the big brother of polyester, PTA. After the domestic futures market opened on July 7, PTA prices opened lower and moved lower, closing at the lower limit. That night, international oil prices fell again, with BRENT crude oil futures hitting a low of $72.6/barrel, and PTA futures leading the market decline in the night, with a drop of more than 4%.
The editor has something to say: The price of crude oil and PTA has dropped, coupled with the current textile off-season , does this mean that polyester yarn will also be on sale in the near future?
Another 600,000-ton polyester project was put into production
Xinfengming, one of the three domestic polyester filament giants, July 4 An announcement was issued on the evening of the same day that the 600,000-ton intelligent, functionally differentiated polyester fiber project invested and constructed by the wholly-owned subsidiary Dushan Energy has reached the conditions for production and was officially put into production on July 4.
It is understood that the project introduced German Barmag high-speed winding equipment, which is made in China Supporting equipment and public engineering equipment, using advanced technologies such as large-capacity flexible polymerization, polyester melt direct spinning, copolymer blending online addition, intelligent manufacturing and green manufacturing, 2 sets of polyester production equipment and 20 spinning production lines have been built. Form an annual production capacity of 600,000 tons of intelligent, functionally differentiated fibers. After the project is put into operation, Xinfengming Group’s polyester production capacity will reach 6 million tons!
Xinfengming expects to maintain approximately 600,000 tons of filament yarn per year in the future Based on the speed of production capacity launch and combined with its production status, in the next three to five years, we will promote the planning and construction of a total of 4 million tons of PTA production capacity, and ultimately achieve the construction goals of “two 10 million tons” of polyester and PTA.
The editor has something to say: With Xinfengming, the two phases will produce 2.2 million tons each With the smooth commissioning of the PTA project, Xinfengming has extended the industrial chain upward to the PTA link. Although the PTA segment is currently at a low point due to the industry’s expansion cycle, the company’s PTA production capacity is the latest technology in the industry, and it is expected to form a synergistic support with downstream polyester production in the future, reducing costs by transmitting thermoelectricity to downstream polyester, and in the industry boom There is still a strong competitive advantage at the low point.
H&M China sales fell 28%
Swedish clothing and cosmetics sales group “H&M”, in March this year, in order to cooperate with the West on China Xinjiang Cotton has spread rumors and slanders and issued a statement, citing so-called “forced labor” as an excuse to refuse to cooperate with any garment manufacturing factory in Xinjiang, China, nor to purchase products and raw materials from the region.
This farce of Western clothing companies boycotting raw materials is essentially the United States suppressing China One of Xinjiang’s industrial political tactics has extremely sinister intentions. Nearly four months have passed. How is the Xinjiang cotton that has been boycotted by clothing companies such as “H&M” now?
Sales data in the financial report released by H&M show that its sales in the last quarter The loss was approximately US$74 million. The main loss in the second quarter came from the Chinese market, with sales falling 28% from US$263 million to US$189 million.
The editor has something to say: H&M’s sales in China fell by only one-third First, they say they are in trouble. How can that be enough? How can it live up to its values if it has not dropped by 90%?
Spandex prices are still rising!
As of Friday, 40D spandex is mainstream on the market The reference quotation is 72,000-78,000 yuan/ton, which is 2,000-4,000 yuan/ton higher than a week ago.
According to the market trend, elastic fabrics will become the mainstream product in the market in recent years, and some old varieties and imitation silk fabrics without superior conditions will be eliminated by the market , It is precisely because of this that spandex, as a raw material for elastic fabrics, can increase in price unscrupulously. According to statistics, downstream spandex consumption in 2020 will be around 720,000 tons, an increase of nearly 10% compared with 2019. With the epidemic causing damage to the global economy, the demand for spandex is growing. The global economic recovery this year will inevitably bring greater demand, which will be evident in the period after the year.
Another point is that the rate of new spandex production capacity is slow. In 2020, domestic spandex production capacity will reach 890,000 tons, with a year-on-year growth rate of 3.5%.
The editor has something to say: According to the current situation, the price of spandex has not dropped at all. Perhaps, with the hot sales of autumn and winter fabrics in the second half of the year, four-way stretch will be even more popular, and the price of spandex may continue to rise
Market Review
Polyester: PTA prices rose first and then fell this week. Due to differences in the extent of crude oil production increase and the benchmark quantity, the market is worried that the United Arab Emirates may withdraw from OPEC and profit-taking, crude oil continues to fall sharply. PTA also began to fall sharply after the price increase. The current mainstream quotation of PTA is 4950-5030 yuan/ton.
In terms of polyester filament, the price of polyester filament increased steadily this week. On Monday and Tuesday, as international oil prices strengthened, polyester prices also experienced general increases. Subsequently, national oil prices fell, polyester raw material prices fell sharply, and polyester factory quotations stabilized. The downstream stocks have been relatively sufficient recently, and the mentality has returned to a cautious wait-and-see attitude. The polyester yarn trading volume has declined compared with the previous period.
In terms of profit, PX suffered a larger loss this week It expanded slightly last week, and its current loss potential reaches US$119/ton. In terms of PTA, the loss has shrunk this week, and its current loss is around 37 yuan/ton. In terms of ethylene glycol, the loss expanded this week, and the current loss is US$50/ton. In terms of polyester filament, the overall price of polyester filament increased steadily this week, but the cost fell sharply and profits began to increase; FDY profit expanded to 203 yuan/ton; POY 150D profit increased, and the current profit is 339 yuan/ton; DTY 150D turned a profit , the current profit is 83 yuan/ton.
In terms of operating rate, the PTA weekly average this week The operating rate was concentrated at 71.8%, down 2.1% from last week; the real-time operating rate was 73.6%, and the real-time effective operating rate was 81.4%. In terms of polyester, the average load of polyester this week was concentrated at 92.8%, which was the same as last week. In terms of weaving, the weaving operating rate has recently risen to around 67%.
In terms of production and sales, polyester yarn transactions in the market this week The atmosphere is relatively light. Due to the end of the price reduction promotion, polyester yarn prices continue to rise this week. Most downstream companies are waiting and watching, with weak purchasing enthusiasm. The overall performance of polyester yarn production and sales is average, mostly maintained at around 20-60%.
In terms of inventory, statistics from China Silk Capital Network According to the data, the overall inventory of the polyester market is now concentrated at 13-24 days; in terms of specific products, POY inventory is around 10-20 days, FDY inventory is around 13-15 days, and DTY inventory is around 16-26 days .
Weaving: From the Shengze Index of the Ministry of Commerce It can be seen that the overall transaction atmosphere in the textile market has tended to be stable in the recent stage. Downstream fabric orders have further decreased as the off-season deepens. Only some autumn and winter fabrics such as nylon and four-way elastic are selling well. In addition, in terms of raw materials, due to the sharp rise in international oil prices, polyester, nylon, spandex and other products have also started to rise, especially spandex, which has increased by more than 2,000 yuan/ton compared with the same period last week. High raw material prices have led to a significant increase in production costs for downstream weaving companies. Some hot-selling fabrics have begun to increase prices. Now the operating rate in Shengze has rebounded to around 67%. In addition, due to the good sales of some hot-selling products, the overall gray fabric inventory has now dropped to About 38.8 days.
Printing and dyeing: The activity level of the printing and dyeing market this week Generally, not much changed from last week. The quantity of gray cloth entering the warehouse has not changed much, and the operating rate is still temporarily stable at 72%. Recently, the orders received in the domestic market have been flat with little fluctuation, and the foreign trade market has also been relatively stable. Therefore, the overall changes in printing and dyeing factories have not been big, and the number of warehouses has also shown a stable trend, which is the same as last week.
The market has truly entered the off-season stage, the number of orders is limited, and the entire market maintains stable operation. Printing and dyeing factories are generally busy.
In terms of products, we still use elastic fabric, nylon silk, pongee, etc. Mainly, other fabrics lack highlights. In terms of delivery time, there are still partial production restrictions, and the reduction of gray fabrics with long production times such as four-way elastic, so the delivery time has begun to ease, and the overall delivery time is about 9 days.
Outlook
Crude oil and PTA rose this week Ups and downs, raw material prices may fall in the later period, the off-season atmosphere is strong, and the market conditions will continue to fall…
, the startup rate is still temporarily stable at 72%. Recently, the orders received in the domestic market have been flat with little fluctuation, and the foreign trade market has also been relatively stable. Therefore, the overall changes in printing and dyeing factories have not been big, and the number of warehouses has also shown a stable trend, which is the same as last week.
The market has truly entered the off-season stage, the number of orders is limited, and the entire market maintains stable operation. Printing and dyeing factories are generally busy.
In terms of products, we still use elastic fabric, nylon silk, pongee, etc. Mainly, other fabrics lack highlights. In terms of delivery time, there are still partial production restrictions, and the reduction of gray fabrics with long production times such as four-way elastic, so the delivery time has begun to ease, and the overall delivery time is about 9 days.
Outlook
Crude oil and PTA rose this week Ups and downs, raw material prices may fall in the later period, the off-season atmosphere is strong, and the market conditions will continue to fall…
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