An article from a U.S. industry research institute believes that although the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s July supply and demand forecast has raised U.S. cotton exports, this is not realistic. From the mid-to-late period, hidden worries about international cotton prices have always existed.
Judging from the supply and demand forecast of the US Department of Agriculture in July, China’s imports have been reduced by 1 million bales, but US cotton exports have been increased by 800,000 bales. This is completely unexplainable. The only reason is that The possible reason is that US cotton production has been increased by 800,000 bales, which has increased export supply. However, the increase in export supply does not mean that the export target can be achieved. China has just started the rotation of cotton reserves, and the current transaction volume is very active. The total rotation volume is expected to be around 600,000 tons. Under this circumstance, China’s cotton imports in 2021/22 are in doubt.
In the past year, China has been the “engine” of global cotton imports. However, in recent weeks, China has almost disappeared from the list of U.S. cotton exports. So far this year, China’s response to 2021 The cumulative contract volume of US cotton in 2022 was only 239,000 bales, which was the lowest value for the same period since 2015/16 (when China was rotating out large-scale cotton reserves), and it was more than 1 million bales less than the same period last year. Affected by China’s reduction in imports, the number of U.S. export contracts in 2021/22 dropped by 35% year-on-year.
The first phase of the Sino-US agreement has supported U.S. cotton exports to China in 2020/21. However, the Sino-US agreement is about to expire at the end of 2021, and it is unknown what will happen after that. . Moreover, the COVID-19 epidemic has not disappeared after all, and mutant strains in some countries have led to blockades, casting a shadow on the outlook for cotton demand.
From the current point of view, the economic recovery of various countries has led to inflation. If central banks of various countries begin to stop economic stimulus, its impact on global money supply and economic recovery will have a negative impact on cotton price trends. bring significant impact. </p