Looking back at the trend of cotton prices in the past six months, the main contract price of Zheng cotton has risen from around the equilibrium line of 15,000 yuan/ton to a high of 17,000 yuan/ton. The increase of nearly 2,000 points is already quite large compared to other varieties. . There are many reasons for such a bullish market in cotton prices. At this time, no amount of analysis is in vain. The market has ended. The focus now is, how will the cotton market perform in the future?
It is not easy to answer this question, because there are many influencing factors, and the main contradiction is supply and demand. Cotton prices will not rise or fall for no reason. There is always an invisible hand behind it. Either consumption increases or supply decreases. Judging from the global cotton production and demand data, it is basically in a balanced state, which means that the world is not short of cotton. In contrast, in China, although there is a certain gap between production and demand, it has reserves and imports to protect it, and there is no shortage of markets. This round of cotton price rise is mainly due to the partial imbalance between supply and demand.
Although there is a large amount of spot resources in the domestic market and it seems that the supply is relatively sufficient, in fact most of them are hedging resources. Cotton prices continue to rise and there is no suitable basis price. These resources cannot be circulated to the market. It seems that the transaction price of reserve cotton is constantly rising, but in fact, companies have their own accounts. If the transaction is not cost-effective, the auction of reserve cotton will not be so fierce.
Since the epidemic, a large number of foreign orders have been transferred to China, resulting in a shortage of cotton yarn. This situation will continue in the short term, especially when the traditional production peak season is about to enter, and textile enterprises have insufficient inventories. Being down low is the best proof of that. In addition, cotton yarn production is highly profitable, companies have a strong desire to produce, and workshop operation rates remain high, resulting in increasing demand for cotton and creating a tight supply situation in the short term. Even if the price of downstream cotton yarn does not increase, textile companies can still bear the continued rise in cotton prices, because the yarn profit is sufficient to support it, indicating that the downstream industry has the ability to accept the increase in raw material prices.
As for the cotton output in the new year, it seems that the market has gradually formed a consensus that the opening price of seed cotton in the new year will reach more than 8.0 yuan/kg. There are two reasons for such high expectations. : First, the cotton output this year is lower than last year, and second, new cotton processing production lines have been added in Xinjiang, so the rush to buy seed cotton will only become more intense. Now that the futures price is lower than the spot price, there is limited room for Zheng cotton to continue to fall. There is a high probability that it will fluctuate upward in the future. Of course, it is not ruled out that other extreme events will cause cotton prices to fall sharply. </p
