International oil prices have continued to maintain high volatility recently. In comparison, the overall performance of Shanghai SC crude oil yesterday was relatively strong, with the main 2109 contract closing up 0.78% at 450.5 yuan/barrel.
Yang An, head of energy and chemical R&D at Haitong Futures, said that SC crude oil rebounded sharply yesterday and was once significantly stronger than international oil prices. There are two main reasons: On the one hand, SC’s early decline was significantly greater than international oil prices. , the cross-regional price difference has reached a new low this year, and there is a strong demand for repair from the perspective of price difference. After the international oil price stabilized and rebounded, SC crude oil also continued to rise, gradually repairing the price difference; on the other hand, during the early plunge, domestic funds were relatively Generally speaking, the mentality is more pessimistic. The market sentiment has improved recently. SC crude oil has begun to correct the early oversold market and has sufficient upward momentum.
“Recently, risk appetite in the crude oil market has returned again. The rise in U.S. stocks and the depreciation of the RMB exchange rate have also driven the center of gravity of crude oil prices upward, and the internal SC crude oil has recently been stronger than the external market.” Everbright Futures Zhong Meiyan, research director of the Institute’s Energy and Chemical Industry Department, said.
From the perspective of driving factors for the increase, Zhong Meiyan believes that on the one hand, the market has regained confidence in OPEC+’s control of the supply rhythm, and the next meeting will start on August 31, which increases market certainty; On the other hand, the overseas epidemic situation is generally under control, and market concerns have eased. It is believed that the overseas market may not return to blockade policies in the future, and demand is showing a steady and rising pace. In addition, in terms of inventories, API inventory data this week showed that crude oil and gasoline inventories fell more than expected, and the overall inventory is still conducive to boosting market confidence.
“Although oil prices have experienced a sustained and rapid rebound recently and the trend is picking up, oil prices are still in a high oscillation range, and bulls have a slight advantage.” Yang An said that the current tight supply and demand situation in the crude oil market is still there It is difficult to reverse in the short term, but at the same time, factors such as the epidemic will hit market expectations from time to time and have a certain impact on crude oil demand. In addition, in terms of macro factors, regarding liquidity expectations, both bulls and bears continue to swing with economic data, which also makes it more difficult for investors to judge the future direction of oil prices.
In Zhong Meiyan’s view, the current oil price as a whole should be treated as a rebound, and the resistance at the previous high position has begun to increase. “The logic of many parties is: supply is controllable, demand maintains steady growth, and Iranian supply will not come back to impact the market in the short term, and oil prices are still on an upward trend. The logic of short parties is: the marginal growth rate of supply is accelerating, and the gradual increase in production will not be effective by the market As a result, crude oil storage will gradually accumulate, and coupled with the recurrence of the epidemic, oil prices will be under overall pressure,” she said.
It should be noted that the current spread of the highly contagious Delta virus variant threatens travel that has just begun to recover. What impact will this have on the international crude oil market?
In this regard, Yang An said that we have also learned about the power of the Delta variant virus from the domestic Nanjing epidemic. It is understood that as of July 27, Nanjing has reported a total of 153 local confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia, including There are 4 severe cases and have spread to areas outside Nanjing, involving a total of 5 provinces and 10 cities.
“Although the impact on global crude oil demand is relatively limited at this stage, as time goes by we have to consider that the re-spread of the epidemic may eventually force some countries to adopt blockade measures, thus affecting the recovery process of crude oil demand. If the epidemic If it worsens to the point of triggering market panic again, the risk of significant fluctuations in oil prices cannot be ruled out.” Yang An believes that at present, it is difficult to estimate the specific impact of repeated epidemics on crude oil demand, and the market’s rough assessment may affect 1 million barrels per day. demand for crude oil has recovered. However, judging from the results of the European epidemic blockade and the Indian epidemic outbreak on crude oil demand in the first half of this year, they were both smaller than expected when the epidemic broke out. The specific impact also depends on the development of the epidemic. </p
