In recent trading days, the Zheng Cotton CF2109 contract has dropped from 17,835 yuan/ton to 17,030 yuan/ton (the lowest point in the session). Some cotton textile mills and middlemen took the opportunity to increase price point and basis purchasing. The “fixed price” performance is relatively deserted.
Several cotton trading companies in Henan, Hubei, Shandong and other places said that since last Friday, some pending orders and low basis Xinjiang cotton resource transactions have been relatively smooth. Inland warehouses 3128/3128 ( The 2020/21 cotton with a breaking ratio and strength index of 27-28CN/TEX has been “swept out”, and textile companies are more enthusiastic about starting to replenish their raw material stocks at low prices.
Cotton processing companies, traders and cotton textile mills generally believe that after a short period of correction, consolidation and momentum, Zheng Cotton will still run on the strong side and will still challenge 17500- The range is 18,000 yuan/ton, so cotton-consuming companies should buy goods sooner rather than later when they find bargains. The author’s opinion is that prices below 17,200 yuan/ton are opportunities to gradually build positions.
So how should textile companies purchase cotton? The author briefly summarizes the following four points for reference only.
First, high-count yarn spinning enterprises receive warehouse receipts from Zheng Cotton. In the past two days, the 31-level “Double 28” Xinjiang machine-picked cotton in Xinjiang’s supervision warehouse has been quoted at 17650-17850 yuan/ton (or 3129, the specific indicators are different and the warehouses are different), even after deducting one month’s financial costs and transactions For delivery fees and other expenses, the cotton futures price is still “upside down” at 300-400 yuan/ton; in addition, warehouse receipt cotton is generally stored and the transportation conditions are good. According to statistics, as of July 30, there were 13,491 Zheng cotton warehouse receipts, a significant decrease of 3,152 from the end of June, a decrease of 18.94%, and the outflow of warehouse receipts has accelerated significantly.
Second, enterprises spinning medium and low-count yarns continue to participate in the auction of reserve cotton, purchasing reserve cotton or going to the port to “purchase” low-priced foreign cotton. For yarn mills spinning counts of 40S and below, apart from slightly larger losses (gray fabrics should be tube-dyed rather than strip-dyed), the use of reserve cotton is not much different from the use of 2020/21 cotton; and due to traders’ bidding Most of the cotton reserves are 100% hedged. Therefore, Zheng cotton has plunged and fallen, and some traders are likely to lower the basis and hurry up shipments.
Thirdly, as the 700,000 tons of cotton import quotas with sliding-scale tariffs are issued in batches, the quotations of foreign cotton that have been cleared at the port may have to fall. The price of Xinjiang cotton of the same quality as that of mainland warehouses The price difference widens, and the bargaining power and space of cotton spinning mills increase.
Fourthly, in August, cotton processing enterprises in Xinjiang have entered a critical period of machine maintenance, raising acquisition funds, and repaying loans. Some ginners that still have a small amount of lint in stock may be liquidating their warehouses. , shipments, the probability of “missing” in the supervision warehouse of textile enterprises in Xinjiang is relatively high. </p
