From July 18th to 24th, with the strong support of Zhengzhou Commercial Exchange, Futures Daily organized the “2021 Xinjiang Cotton and Red Dates Market Research by Senior Analysts of Zhengzhou Commercial Exchange”. Through in-depth industry research, analysts have improved their understanding of the regional resource endowments and development needs of listed varieties, which is conducive to giving full play to the functions of cotton and jujube futures markets and promoting “insurance + futures”, “seed cotton loans”, “rights-inclusive trade” and “basis points”. Promotion of innovative businesses such as “price” in cotton and red date producing areas. At the same time, it has built a bridge between the industry and the financial market, which will actively promote the transformation and upgrading of the cotton and red date industries. It will help the cotton and red date futures and options markets to better serve the majority of cotton farmers, date farmers and industrial enterprises, and revitalize the industry and rural areas. Wait for the work to be implemented.
Xinjiang’s cotton planting area and output are in a leading position in the country and have a direct impact on the domestic market price trend. A reporter from Futures Daily found that as models such as “point price and basis trading” based on cotton futures and options markets have become the mainstream of the market, the textile industry and other industries have moved to Xinjiang, and the added value of downstream industries has increased. focus.
The normal planting area of cotton in the new season has decreased
In On the way to the place of residence, the driver started chatting when he learned that the reporter was coming to Xinjiang to investigate cotton growth. “Many of the passengers on the bus came from the mainland to Xinjiang to plant cotton on private land. I heard from them that cotton is growing well this year, and the planting area has decreased, so the expected price may be relatively high.” The driver said that now the relevant departments in Xinjiang have strengthened their efforts The management of Gobi wasteland, water grassland and land on both sides of the Tarim River has strengthened the comprehensive management of water resources utilization. Part of the land that was not suitable for growing cotton was replanted with other agricultural and forestry crops. The cotton planting area changed from the stable and increasing trend in previous years to a slight decrease.
“Are you doing cotton market research? I have many friends who grow cotton. Could you please tell me how the cotton price will go this year?” A new coronavirus patient who just entered Korla City At the pneumonia epidemic prevention and control registration station, a staff member saw the cotton market research information in the reporter’s hand and quickly asked.
“The party’s policies are good, and the income from cotton planting is stable. My son and I have hired 2,400 acres of land to grow cotton this year, and the expected income is relatively optimistic.” In Hutubi County, the reporter met When I arrived at Zhu Ning, a fellow from Henan who planted cotton on a piece of land here, she told reporters: “There have been few natural disasters this year, and the cotton I planted is growing well. I estimate that the yield per unit area will not be low. In addition, everyone said that the purchase price of seed cotton can reach 7 yuan/kg. The above is worth the effort.”
The reporter learned during the investigation that Xinjiang has become the most important main cotton producing area in my country. As the cotton planting area in the mainland has continued to decline in recent years, Xinjiang cotton accounts for more than 80% of the country’s total cotton output. At present, the overall growth of cotton in Xinjiang is good, and the yield and total output are expected to be close to normal levels.
From the perspective of the cotton growth process in Xinjiang this year, except for the adverse weather such as strong winds, cooling, hail and other adverse weather conditions encountered in some areas during the cotton planting and emergence period from April to May, the weather in other areas was relatively poor. Normally, the cotton seedling replanting rate in Xinjiang has dropped a lot this year. However, due to low temperatures in many areas of Xinjiang before the end of May, the growth and development period of cotton this year has been extended. In some areas, cotton has grown slowly, and the development period is expected to be delayed by about 10 days. But the good news is that since late June, hot weather has increased in various parts of Xinjiang, which is conducive to cotton growth.
The reporter saw in the cotton fields of Hutubi County, Shihezi City, Tiemenguan City, Xinhe County, Aksu City and Alar City that the cotton uniformity was good this year. , there are more peaches at the bottom, and cotton is in full bloom.
It is understood that the decrease in cotton planting area is mainly due to the following reasons: First, the relevant departments have adjusted the agricultural planting structure and implemented measures to “guarantee grain and quality cotton”. In some areas, farmers have been guided to Grain crops have been planted instead, so the planting area of wheat and corn in Xinjiang has expanded this year. Second, due to the combined effects of various factors, cotton planting in some areas did not keep up with the previous time, and farmers had to switch to other crops. For example, due to the long duration of low temperature weather at the beginning of the year, some farmers missed the timely planting of cotton and had to Do not switch to other crops such as corn, zucchini, carrots, etc. Third, water control, water conservation and land management work have been strengthened on both sides of the Tarim River and other places. In addition, the conversion of farmland to forest and grassland and the development of animal husbandry require the conversion of forage grass, resulting in a decrease in cotton planting area. Some cotton purchasers in Xinhe County told reporters that the cotton planting area in the county last year was 950,000-1 million acres, and this year it was around 860,000 acres. The main reason for the decline is that some cotton farmers switched to wheat. The cotton planting area in Shaya County last year was 2 million to 2.1 million acres, and this year it is about 1.9 million acres, mainly because some land on both sides of the Tarim River was converted into forests. The cotton planting area in Kuqa County this year is expected to be 1.8 million acres, a year-on-year decrease of about 100,000 acres.
A variety of factors have combined to influence the cost of planting to rise slightly
” Although the purchase price of seed cotton in Xinjiang in recent years has been ‘sesame blossoms are rising steadily’, the growth in planting costs has also been obvious, especially this year’s growth rate is relatively large.” Some cotton farmers in Hutubi County, Alar City and other places told reporters, The comprehensive cotton planting cost in some areas has reached 2,500 yuan/acre, including land transfer fees,He would drive the car to the fields and sleep in the car all night. “Since late June, he has slept in the car for more than a month, mainly because he was afraid that the water would be stolen, that fertilizers would not be applied properly, and that the workers would not manage well. After sleeping in the car for more than a month, he originally A fair and fat young man lost about 20 pounds.” Zhu Ning told reporters.
Chen Zhiman, who investigated with reporters, said that a bumper yield, a bumper harvest and a good price for seed cotton on the market are the simplest wishes of cotton farmers represented by Zhu Ning.
Towards the end of July, domestic cotton futures spot prices are still rising. As of July 28, this year, the main cotton futures September contract has increased by about 15%. Cotton futures prices continue to strengthen, strengthening the optimistic expectations of cotton farmers and industry entities for the listing price of seed cotton.
Tianfeng Futures soft commodity researcher Chen Xiaoyan, who participated in the survey with the reporter, believes that after entering July, the rise in domestic cotton prices began to accelerate. The trading logic of the current market mainly has two expectations: one is the expectation that ginners will “rush to harvest” seed cotton, and the other is the expectation of the autumn and winter peak seasons. Generally, August to October each year is the peak season for downstream autumn and winter order placing and production, and May to July is the off-season. If after 2-3 months of textile off-season, the downstream textile inventory has not accumulated significantly and is still at a low level, and the profits are still at a high level, then before the peak season comes, the downstream will definitely increase the purchase of raw materials to stock up in advance.
The reporter learned during the investigation that the number and production capacity of Xinjiang ginneries have grown rapidly in the past two years. When demand is relatively good, there is a high probability that seed cotton will still appear.” The phenomenon of “grasping”.
Chen Zhiman said that in the past two years, the number of new ginning factory production lines in Xinjiang has increased by hundreds compared to previous years based on production capacity. He calculated an account for reporters. The annual cost of a ginning factory in terms of employee expenses, equipment depreciation, financial expenses, etc. is at least nearly one million yuan. After the production capacity increases, each ginner is ready to “rush to harvest” in order to obtain more seed cotton resources. After the seed cotton comes on the market this year, it is expected that the competition in the acquisition market will be very fierce. Due to the strong market “rush to harvest” expectations, it is expected that even if the purchase price of seed cotton rises to 8-10 yuan per kilogram this year, there will still be ginning factories to harvest it. In this case, the higher the acquisition price, the greater the market risk.
Ginning production capacity has not decreased but has increased business and expanded into the planting field
According to a reporter’s survey, no matter what the future demand for cotton and its downstream products is, for the majority of cotton farmers, their biggest concern is how to improve cotton yield and quality. For a long time, my country’s cotton production has been unable to meet domestic demand, and ginners have serious overcapacity. Cotton farmers have no worries about selling the seed cotton they produce. As the new production capacity of ginners across Xinjiang reaches a higher level this year, cotton farmers expect that seed cotton can be sold at a good price. Therefore, most cotton farmers expect that the price of seed cotton will be higher, and they have the mentality of “not selling if the price is low”.
For ginners, the high purchasing price of seed cotton and low selling price of lint have made life difficult for them in recent years. However, when the prices of seed cotton and lint cotton often do not match, we have not seen a large number of gins closing down. There is even a very strange phenomenon in the market: not only does the production capacity of gins not decrease, but it continues to increase every year. With the growth, even the old ginning mills that have not been in operation for many years are being invested and contracted. Why does such a strange thing happen? This has a lot to do with the changes in the social functions of cotton gins.
Wang Yuansu, general manager of Xinjiang Yide Zhongcheng Products Co., Ltd., told reporters that as an “old cotton”, for more than ten years, he found that too many things have happened in the domestic cotton market With the changes, the existing cotton planting, picking, processing and sales models, as well as cotton circulation and payment recovery methods, are completely different from the original ones. In the past, gins only purchased seed cotton and sold lint, earning a processing fee. Now, due to the massive involvement of leading industry companies and social capital, gins have become a basic entity that collects cotton market resources.
“With the continuous expansion of the cotton futures and options market, especially the continuous launch of related innovative financial services, as well as the on-site and off-site financial derivatives business of Zhengzhou Commercial Exchange With the diversified docking, there are already many leading cotton companies carrying out business across the entire industry chain. Even if the purchase price of seed cotton is high, the risk can be resolved through futures and options tools.” Wang Yuansu said that the upstream resources of the cotton market are becoming more and more important. Concentration, more diverse changes in the policy environment, the new development pattern of internal and external dual circulation, changes brought about by the Internet platform, the diversified use of financial instruments, the development of new agricultural cooperation entities, etc., have all given the cotton ginning factory more social functions .
During the investigation, the reporter found that due to the widespread expansion of cotton machine harvesting in recent years, the way gins purchase seed cotton has also undergone major changes. The original door-to-door sales of cotton farmers have been replaced by Replaced by ginning factory field procurement. At the same time, some large ginners have expanded their business into cotton planting, directly transferring large amounts of land to cotton farmers and providing agricultural supplies and machinery services. They only require that the cotton produced by cotton farmers is not sold outside. Overall, the integration between cotton farmers and ginners has become closer, and their interests have become more consistent, which is very conducive to the development of large-scale, improved varieties and standardized quality of the cotton industry. In addition, the concentration of cotton upstream materials is also conducive to the integration of industry and finance.
��. In addition, the concentration of cotton upstream materials is also conducive to the integration of industry and finance. </p
