According to customs statistics, since 2020/21 (2020.9-2021.6), my country has imported a total of 2.5163 million tons of cotton, a year-on-year increase of 91.60%. Cotton imports in May and June 2021 were 173,200 tons and 172,000 tons respectively. The year-on-year growth rates reached 147.39% and 90.64% respectively. In the second quarter of 2021, the year-on-year growth of cotton imports remained strong, with no signs of slowing down or braking. Domestic cotton textile companies and traders have strong demand for foreign cotton.
USDA’s latest report shows that China’s total cotton imports in 2020/21 are approximately 2.722 million tons (2020.8-2021.7, slightly different from China’s cotton year); China Cotton Association predicts that 2020 China’s cotton import volume in 2019/21 is approximately 3 million tons (only 1.6 million tons in 2019/20). Judging from feedback from several international cotton merchants and large and medium-sized import companies, domestic buyers were still relatively active in inquiries and purchases of port bonded cotton and foreign cotton for immediate shipment in July and August. U.S. cotton, Indian cotton, Brazilian cotton, The transaction situation of Australian cotton and others is slightly better than expected. Therefore, the author estimates that China’s total cotton imports in 2020/21 are expected to be between 2.9 and 3 million tons, and it is unlikely to exceed 3 million tons.
First, since the 700,000-ton cotton import quota with sliding-scale tax was issued on July 21, a few cotton textile companies have placed actual purchase orders (with advance “overdraft” of sliding-scale tax) quota phenomenon); second, domestic cotton futures prices have risen sharply since late July, while the main ICE cotton futures contract continues to consolidate at 88-91 cents/pound, and the price difference between domestic and foreign cotton continues to expand under the 1% tariff and sliding tax. The stronger competitiveness of foreign cotton is conducive to cotton imports; third, affected by heavy rains, typhoons and epidemics, cotton yarn transportation, cotton yarn production and sales have been affected in stages. Not only the ordering/arrangement of high-count yarns of 60S and above is smooth , the demand for OE yarn and low-count spinning yarn also bottomed out, and the consumption of low-quality and low-grade foreign cotton increased; fourth, the RMB exchange rate appreciated slightly or was basically stable in July and August, which is conducive to the import of cotton yarn. After monthly depreciation in June, the spot exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar slightly appreciated by 0.08% (52 basis points) in July; on July 30, the Political Bureau of the CPC Central Committee held a meeting to set the tone and proposed to maintain the RMB exchange rate at a reasonable and balanced level. Basically stable. </p
