The COVID-19 epidemic has once again become the focus of the market’s greatest attention.
Market analysts pointed out that the epidemic situation in the United States has worsened again recently, the mutant strain “Delta” is not far away, and the new strain “Lambda” has appeared in the United States. Thousands of cases, with the average daily number of new COVID-19 cases in the United States exceeding 100,000.
Market participants pointed out that the surge in the fourth wave of epidemic infections in the United States has become an indisputable fact, and this factor will also become one of the main factors affecting the trend of crude oil in the short term. U.S. oil fell by about 7.7% last week, the largest weekly decline since the week of October 2 last year; Brent oil fell by nearly 6.3%. On the 9th, oil prices continued to plummet! Yesterday afternoon, when the domestic futures market closed, crude oil in the previous period fell by more than 2%, and US oil and cloth fell by nearly 4%, a new low since July 20. Internal futures opened at night, with the main Shanghai crude oil contract falling nearly 3%. As of the morning close on the 10th, the main Shanghai crude oil futures contract closed down 2.32% in night trading at 416.5 yuan/barrel. WTI September crude oil futures closed down 2.63%, and Brent October crude oil futures closed down 2.35%, both hitting new closing lows for major contracts since July 19.
Over a thousand cases of “Lambda” have been reported in the United States
Highly contagious and resistant immunity has spread to Asia
According to the latest data from the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC), as of last Saturday, the number of new cases of new coronavirus in the United States in a single day The number of confirmed cases has exceeded 100,000 for the fourth consecutive day. Last Friday, the number of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases in the United States exceeded 120,000 in a single day, the highest record in six months.
Statistics from Johns Hopkins University in the United States show that on August 6, the number of newly confirmed cases in the United States in a single day was 254,000, more than double the CDC statistics , reaching the highest single-day increase record since January 9 this year.
According to US media reports, as of August 8, there were an average of 506 new deaths per week in the United States over the past week, an increase of 89% from 14 days ago. Hospitalizations nationwide have risen 40% in the past week. In addition, Florida has set a record for the number of hospitalizations due to COVID-19 for eight consecutive days. Yesterday, Iran reported 40,808 new confirmed cases of COVID-19 and 588 new deaths, both hitting record highs.
There is no doubt that Delta has become the main strain of the global epidemic. However, the alarm about the Delta variant has not yet been lifted, and the variant known as “Lambda” has begun to emerge again. U.S. media reported that as the epidemic spreads, thousands of cases of infection with the “Lambda” strain first reported in Peru in December last year have appeared in the United States. Some experts said that the “Lambda” strain is also a mutated strain that they are paying close attention to.
Senior U.S. health officials have expressed their opinions on this situation. Fauci, director of the U.S. National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said that the average daily number of new confirmed cases exceeding 100,000 is a “bad turn.” Unrestricted spread of the virus will increase the probability of virus mutation.
Researchers from the University of Tokyo and Osaka University in Japan said that the spike protein of the lambda variant is highly contagious, and the “culprit” responsible for this high contagion is the The virus has two mutations, T61 and L452Q, which change the binding properties of this variant to the angiotensin-converting enzyme 2 (ACE2) cellular receptor. Although the study has not been peer-reviewed to date, it is certain that the Lambda variant is no less active in infecting cells than the Delta variant – which is currently considered one of the most contagious strains in the world.
According to the Japan Broadcasting Association website, a woman was found to be infected with a new strain of the virus at the quarantine station at Tokyo Haneda Airport in August and July, and has now been confirmed to be infected. The case is a mutated strain of Lambda. This is the first time a case of infection with a mutated Lambda strain has been confirmed in Japan.
Mutant viruses drag down crude oil demand
Polyester price drops are gradually transmitted
The United States, which has not yet achieved herd immunity, does not take lockdown measures despite an increase of 200,000 confirmed cases every day, and the risk posed by the Delta variant virus will increase. Come bigger. In addition, the global blockade measures adopted in response to the third round of the epidemic have had a negative impact on crude oil demand. For example, due to the spread of the epidemic in Nanjing, at least 46 cities in China have advised residents to avoid non-essential travel. The interference of the epidemic on the recovery of travel demand has affected the outlook for oil demand. Overcast again.
Zheng Mengqi, an energy researcher at Hizheng Futures, said that the U.S. non-agricultural data released last Friday exceeded expectations, so the market began to expect the Federal Reserve to reduce QE this year. Strengthened, the U.S. dollar index strengthened, and the price of crude oil, a commodity, came under pressure. The Delta variant of the virus is spreading, and the Lambda strain has also appeared in many countries and regions. The spread of the epidemic has frustrated the recovery of global fuel demand and intensified concerns about the decline in crude oil demand.
Polyester yarn, which originally lacked rising momentum, dropped its arrogant attitude with the help of the decline in crude oil, ended the continuous rise in prices, and began to return to the weekly trend. discount promotion. Since August, polyester filament has started a downward channel, with an average price reduction of 150-250 yuan/ton.
The polyester market pours another bucket of cold water
grey cloth inventories have climbed to high levels, and a large amount of funds from textile companies have been occupied
“The biggest impact on the textile market at present is the epidemic at home and abroad. If the epidemic eases, there will definitely be more orders One thing, the global epidemic is very serious now, and there will definitely be few orders.�A textile foreign trader said. The epidemic is still the biggest uncertain factor in the current textile foreign trade market. Currently, textile foreign trade orders have been canceled and postponed in the domestic market due to the epidemic.
Vietnam, which imported more than 100 billion yuan of various textiles from my country in 2020, is suffering from the fourth wave of new coronavirus mutant strains, which has currently caused a number of industrial parks and factories to Temporarily closed, production and supply chains in various places were interrupted due to the implementation of social isolation, and the growth rate of Vietnam’s industrial production slowed down. As the world’s second largest textile and apparel exporter, about one-third of Vietnam’s textile and apparel factories have been closed due to the epidemic, and 30% to 35% of the country’s garment factories are currently closed.
Our other important textile exporting countries, India, Japan, Thailand, Malaysia, etc., are also in dire straits of the epidemic. Various countries have continued to implement city closures and curfews, and normal industrial production and shopping consumption have also been hit. This has also led to a lack of confidence among terminal textile and garment enterprises, and the frequency of new orders and inquiries has been slow. Due to the epidemic, foreign trade shipping costs are easy to rise but hard to fall, and export problems have become more difficult. Downstream gray fabric factories are really suffering, so reducing their operating hours and operating in a low-key manner has become the norm.
The lack of orders has caused the inventory of gray fabrics to climb to a high level, and a large amount of funds of textile companies have been occupied. Therefore, most weaving companies have a cautious wait-and-see attitude, which to a certain extent will also give rise to future problems. The price of polyester raw materials has poured cold water on it. </p
