The time has come to the tenth day of the first lunar month. At this time in previous years, the wave of workers returning home has begun. Weaving companies should be having a headache whether they can recruit skilled workers. The market is in full swing. But now the situation is exactly the opposite.
As the new pneumonia epidemic continues to ferment, traditional textile clusters such as Jiangsu and Zhejiang have issued their own emergency plans, requiring local companies to start operations no earlier than February 9 to control spread of the epidemic. Affected by this, the start-up time of textile enterprises is generally delayed until after the Lantern Festival. With the development of the epidemic, it is unknown whether work can really start after the Lantern Festival and how many machines can be turned on.
It can be said that the situation at the beginning of this year is unprecedented for textile people. Under such circumstances, in what direction will the market develop in the future?
Polyester industry: Inventory is about to reach the sky
In 2019, the polyester industry has been plagued by high inventory. The average inventory of polyester factories reached a maximum of 24 days. The inventory situation is unfavorable. As of the Spring Festival holiday, the inventory of polyester factories is still at a high level.
Draged by high inventories, the prices of various products in the polyester industry chain, including PTA, polyester filament, and PX, have fallen to varying degrees. Taking polyester DTY 150D as an example, it dropped from nearly 1,000 yuan/ton at the beginning of the year to 8,850 yuan/ton at the end of the year, a drop of more than 1,000 yuan/ton.
Under the influence of the pneumonia epidemic, weaving companies have postponed their start time, but gathering Although the ester factories have undergone unprecedented maintenance during the New Year this year, not all operations have been stopped after all. A large amount of polyester filament is still being produced continuously every day. When weaving companies really start to resume production, the inventory of polyester yarns in polyester factories will be astronomical.
On the other hand, the textile industry, as a labor-intensive industry, has put forward higher requirements for epidemic prevention work. Therefore, the resumption of work by weaving enterprises may be slower than expected. .
It is foreseeable that under the unprecedented high inventory of polyester factories, in order to reduce inventory, the price of polyester products, which was once considered to have hit the bottom, is likely to further decline. fell.
Textile companies are restricted in starting exports. What’s wrong? Blessed?
In the early morning of January 31, the World Health Organization announced that the new coronavirus epidemic would be classified as a public health emergency of international concern (PHEIC). As a result, China’s trade exports have been hit to a certain extent. , the US Secretary of Commerce even said that “China’s epidemic will help manufacturing return to the United States.”
In recent years, the textile industry as a whole has been shifting from China to Southeast Asia, Africa and other regions. Although affected by factors such as the basic supporting industrial chain and the quality of workers, these regions currently only Can undertake the production of some low-end products.
But on the one hand, the Sino-US trade friction in 2019 has accelerated the transfer of China’s textile industry to Southeast Asia. With the easing of Sino-US trade frictions in early 2020, this transfer momentum was originally expected to ease. However, with the outbreak of the epidemic, a large amount of foreign trade demand exists. If China’s production capacity cannot be supplied, the pace of textile industry transfer is bound to be It will also accelerate.
But it’s not all bad news. On the one hand, due to the poor market conditions in 2019, weaving companies still have a large inventory of conventional products that need to be digested, and these products can alleviate the impact of delayed start-up on the market to a certain extent; on the other hand, affected by the level of technology, , At present, only China can provide high-quality and low-cost options for some textile products in the world, so it is unlikely that these orders will be transferred.
Order Revenge Sexual rebound is likely to exist
The editor believes that retaliatory rebound to a certain extent does exist. China’s reputation as the “world’s factory” is not false. As the world’s largest textile exporter, most of the textiles produced in China are irreplaceable around the world.
In “clothing, food, housing and transportation”, “clothing” is the first. To a large extent, people’s demand for textiles will not decline significantly due to the development of the epidemic, let alone foreign countries. The market has been almost unaffected by the epidemicIt can be said that “rigid needs”, especially the “rigid needs” of foreign trade, still exist.
Therefore, the editor judges that when the production capacity of the textile industry begins to gradually recover and the impact of the epidemic gradually begins to weaken, the textile industry will have a concentrated outbreak period of orders, especially It is foreign trade orders. After several months of backlog, there is a high probability that they will rebound with retaliation.
Editor’s note: The same is inventory. For polyester factories, weaving companies are delayed After the resumption of work, there will be huge pressure to destock in the future; for weaving companies, a large amount of conventional product inventory may be a good buffer in the process of resumption of work. But no matter what, the fight against the new pneumonia epidemic is now the top priority. Textile companies must do a good job in epidemic prevention before starting work. I believe that with everyone’s unity, we will eventually defeat the epidemic.
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