On February 25, the number of newly diagnosed coronavirus cases in China, excluding Hubei, dropped to five. China’s battle against the epidemic has seen the dawn of victory.
But on the other hand, while the epidemic in China was under control, the new coronavirus was quietly spreading around the world. As of February 26, South Korea had been diagnosed There are more than 1,000 people, and the epidemic in Japan, Italy, Iran, the United States, and Singapore is also spreading.
The pneumonia epidemic spreads globally, stocks, Crude oil plunges
As the novel coronavirus spreads further around the world, the sell-off on Wall Street intensifies. On the 25th local time, the U.S. stock market encountered “Black Tuesday”, with the three major stock indexes plummeting for two consecutive trading days.
As of the close of the day, the Dow Jones Index fell more than 880 points, or 3.15%, to 27,081.36 points. It plummeted by more than 1,900 points in two days; the S&P 500 Index fell. 97.68 points, a drop of more than 3%, to 3128.21 points; the Nasdaq Composite Index fell 255.67 points, or 2.77%, to 8965.61 points.
International oil prices also fell for three consecutive years. As of February 25, WTI fell by 1.53 to $49.90/barrel; Brent fell by 1.35 to $54.95/barrel. The main force of China SC crude oil futures fell 3.8 yuan/barrel in 2004 to 397.4 yuan/barrel.
For polyester products, crude oil is the most basic raw material, and its price fluctuations play an important role in the price changes of polyester products. Now that the woven polyester market has not yet recovered from the epidemic, the drop in international oil prices has undoubtedly made it worse.
High inventory, low production and sales, polyester filament “priceless” Market”
In 2019, under the joint influence of overcapacity in the weaving market and Sino-US trade friction, the textile market can be said to be the best in recent years. Worst of all, the gray fabrics produced by a large number of weaving companies cannot be sold, and the phenomenon of dumping and selling goods due to excessive inventory accumulation is not uncommon. The downturn in the weaving market has also directly led to the weakness of the polyester market, and the recent epidemic has caused delays in the opening of factories, which has caused a further blow to the polyester market.
In terms of price, the price of polyester filament continued to fall in 2019, and some of the failed speculation methods in the past have lost their effect. After the outbreak, polyester filament yarn prices have continued to fall. The price of silk began to fall slightly again. By February 26, the price of polyester FDY15D had dropped to 7,400 yuan/ton, POY150D had dropped to 6,980 yuan/ton, and DTY150D had dropped to 8,700 yuan/ton, which were once again close to the lowest in early January. point.
In terms of inventory, statistics from China Silk Capital Network Judging from the above, the overall inventory of the polyester market is now concentrated at 31-41 days; in terms of specific products, POY inventory is around 25-31 days, FDY inventory is around 26-32 days, and DTY inventory is around 32-41 days. It has far exceeded the peak in 2019.
In terms of production and sales, although weaving companies have begun to resume production one after another, due to the impact of the epidemic, the degree of resumption of production is far lower than expected. At present, the operating rate of weaving companies has only returned to about 30%, while the production and sales of polyester factories It has basically remained at a low level of 20-30%.
The only thing that is better is the profit. At present, polyester Although the profits of various filament products dropped slightly from the beginning of the month, they still exceeded 600 yuan/ton. However, the current high profits of polyester yarns are due to the sharp fall in the price of raw material PTA. On the other hand, there are few weaving companies resuming work. Polyester yarns are in a “price but no market” situation. The more important reason is that the price does not fluctuate much. Maybe no one is buying it.
The global fermentation of the epidemic will affect polyester What impact will the market have?
PX production capacity is affected by Threat, prices may rise
Japan and South Korea are currently the two places with the most serious outbreaks of the new coronavirus outside China, which has a great impact on the polyester industry Generally speaking, these two countries are also the most important importers of PX.
In 2019, China imported 6.0407 million tons of PX from South Korea, accounting for more than 40% of the country’s imports. China also imported 2.0972 million tons from Japan. South Korea and South Korea accounted for more than 60% of the total PX imports in 2019.
Although with recentRecently, leading refining and chemical companies such as Hengli and Zhejiang Petrochemical have launched refining and chemical integrated enterprises, and my country’s PX production capacity has made a complete leap. But everything is in progress, and it will take time for PX to be almost completely localized like PTA.
Although the PX production capacity in South Korea and Japan may not be greatly affected in the short term, the panic caused by the epidemic may still drive up the price of PX. When the price of PX rises, the price of PTA, which has been in a weak stage, may also rise to a certain extent.
Confidence is damaged, polyester yarn may not rise but Fall
Unlike PX and PTA, which may rise, the probability of polyester filament falling next is greater.
In fact, the price of polyester yarn has been declining slowly in recent days, but the decline is as small as only a few dozen yuan per day. But when weaving companies resume work one after another, the disadvantages of high inventory in polyester factories will be concentrated to a large extent.
On the one hand, due to the spread of the epidemic abroad, the textile market’s view of the foreign trade market, which was originally given high hopes, began to change, and there is pessimism in future expectations; on the other hand, The profit of polyester filament is still relatively high at this stage, and there is a large room for decline.
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