In recent days, the global epidemic situation has become increasingly severe. The number of confirmed cases in South Korea exceeds 2,000, the vice president of Iran is diagnosed, Italy has 250 new cases in one day, and the Netherlands and Northern Ireland have confirmed their first cases of new coronary pneumonia…
Under the influence of the intensifying epidemic, the three major U.S. stock indexes plunged more than 4%, and the Dow Jones Index plunged another 1,191 points. , the Dow Jones Industrial Average plummeted 11.13%, losing 3,226 points in the last four trading days, and the value of the U.S. stock market has evaporated by 33 trillion yuan in the past four trading days.
International oil prices have also begun It collapsed, falling sharply for five consecutive days, with a cumulative decline of up to 12%. As of the close on February 27, U.S. WTI crude oil April futures closed down $1.53, or 3.16%, at $46.86/barrel, with a maximum of $48.53/barrel and a low of $45.87/barrel; Brent crude oil April futures It closed down US$2.04, or 3.82%, at US$51.38/barrel, with an intraday high of US$53.24/barrel and a low of US$50.94/barrel.
Affected by this, The price of polyester raw materials has also begun to decline at an accelerated pace.
In terms of PTA, as of the close at 15:00 on February 28, the closing price of the main 2005 contract of PTA futures was 4252 points, a decrease of 96 points from the previous trading day. At 2.21%, this is the fifth consecutive day of decline for PTA futures, with a cumulative decline of nearly 300 points in five days.
In terms of polyester filament, in recent years The price of polyester filament has also continued to fall in Japan. Over the past week, the cumulative decline of various polyester products has ranged from 100-500 yuan/ton.
The unprecedented epidemic has triggered a market situation that has been rare in decades
Before the epidemic spread globally, it had already had a huge impact in China. The start of business operations across the country was delayed, and textile companies took an unprecedented holiday. This also caused textile workers to face an unprecedented market situation after the start of work.
Enterprises are stuck in a “labor shortage” and resumption of work is slow
Affected by the epidemic, this year Both weaving companies and printing and dyeing finishing companies have fallen into a “labor shortage”. Although various places have racked their brains for this, some areas have even adopted methods such as “chartered flights” and “chartered trains” to introduce labor. However, compared with the huge In view of the employment gap, this method is still insufficient.
According to data monitoring from China Silk City Network, the current operating rate of looms in Shengze has only returned to 40-50%, while the production capacity of printing, dyeing and finishing Recovery is even slower.
Polyester raw materials fell , polyester filament is “priced but not marketable”
Due to the low startup rate of looms, polyester filament is currently in a state of “priced but not marketable”, with an average Production and sales basically remain at 20-30%. Due to the extended holiday period, polyester factory inventories have reached a historical high of nearly 38 days. Under the pressure of high inventory, polyester prices have been in a slow decline.
However, international oil prices have begun to “divide” recently, and the prices of polyester raw materials such as PX, PTA, and MEG continue to fall, which is likely to accelerate the growth of polyester filament yarns. The speed at which prices fall.
The epidemic is spreading globally. Doubts in the foreign trade market
As the epidemic gradually spreads abroad, textile people can’t help but wonder whether the future foreign trade market will be affected.
Take Japan and South Korea, which had the worst outbreak outside China at the beginning of this epidemic, as an example. In 2019, my country’s textile exports to Japan reached 19.9 billion U.S. dollars. It is the fourth largest textile exporter outside ASEAN and the United States. The Korean market is smaller than Japan, but from January to June 2019, China also exported US$2.74 billion in textile exports to South Korea.
Once the epidemic is not effectively controlled, the economies of these countries will be hit, and the demand for textiles will naturally be affected. But the exact extent of the impact is still unknown.
Demand exists, but the market is still waiting to see
As major textile markets across the country gradually open, the demand that had been pent up due to the epidemic has begun to be released. Therefore, at the current stage, when the prices of polyester filament and nylon filament continue to fall, The prices of some conventional products have not fallen but have risen.
On the other hand, because the recovery of printing, dyeing and finishing production capacity is too slow, it is currently difficult for cloth bosses to The biggest problem is that we are not sure about the order delivery date and dare not take orders.
After the epidemic, everything will be fine!
But everything is turning around!
From SARS in 2003 to this year’s new coronavirus, in the face of such emergencies, Academician Zhong Nanshan It has always been like a “miracle needle”.
On the 27th, Academician Zhong Nanshan said at a special press briefing for epidemic prevention and control at Guangzhou Medical University, “According to our team After adding influencing factors based on the traditional model, strong national intervention and the elimination of the return peak after the Spring Festival, the predicted peak should be in mid-February close to the end of February. By February 15th, the numbers really came down. We are closer to the predicted values from foreign authorities. We are confident that the situation will be basically under control by the end of April. ”
Academician Zhong Nanshan’s remarks are undoubtedly a shot in the arm for the market. I believe that by then, everything will be fine.
It happens to be the peak season. Market demand explodes
In previous years, the textile market prices in the first half of the year tended to explode from late March to early April. Before the peak season broke out, cloth bosses did Most of the work is basically preparing stocks for this wave of market conditions.
The start of weaving enterprises this year is generally delayed. After the start of work, production capacity is not released quickly, so The progress of stocking up will also be slower than in the past.
The editor believes that because the epidemic has delayed the “timetable” of the entire society, the traditional customs in the first half of this year The peak season may be slower than in previous years. I believe that by the end of April, as judged by Academician Zhong Nanshan, the pent-up market demand will be detonated, and the market will definitely get better this year.
The market has received a “boost”
Confidence in the market may seem illusory, but for businessmen, it is often visible and tangible. For example, the recent plunge in the stock market and international oil prices is a direct manifestation of the lack of confidence in foreign markets in the subsequent control of the epidemic. .
While the epidemic is still raging, textile workers have certain doubts whether they are taking orders, stocking up or producing. After all, cash is king at this time. , I am afraid that if I make a wrong judgment on the market, my money will be wasted.
Academician Zhong Nanshan’s judgment is undoubtedly a “boost in the arm” for the market. , with authoritative people making such judgments, textile workers will have the confidence to do whatever they do next. Let’s not talk about the foreign trade market, the domestic trade market is at least stable. Traders will become more determined to stock up, and after the weaving machine is started We are not afraid that it will turn into inventory and pile up in warehouses like last year. The price of polyester filament is also expected to stabilize.
What can’t defeat me can only make me stronger !
When you encounter difficulties, every time you muster the courage to face it and overcome it, it is a test of life.
In the face of this epidemic, the people of China have become one, showing unspeakable cohesion and erupting into something never imagined. energy.
The new coronavirus epidemic is a disaster faced by the whole Chinese people, but we have not been defeated. Instead, we have concentrated our efforts on doing big things and used our strength to do big things. Positive means defeated it.
It is a blessing in disguise. For textile workers, although the epidemic has caused some monetary losses, on the other hand, it has gained a valuable wealth in life.
When you encounter difficulties in doing business in the future,
Think about now,
Such a difficult epidemic can be overcome,
What is there that cannot be overcome? What about?
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