Recently, as weaving companies have resumed work and production, the demand that had been accumulated due to the extended holiday period has begun to be released, and some fabrics have even appeared Price increases.
As of last weekend, the operating rate of looms in Shengze has returned to around 50%, and the printing and dyeing production capacity has returned to 20-30%. As the epidemic is gradually controlled, Workers are accelerating their return to work, and the operating rate will increase even more rapidly in the future.
But in sharp contrast to the fiery textile market, the polyester market is bearish.
Last week, the editor conducted a survey on textile companies’ judgments on future raw material price trends and weaving companies’ raw material purchasing strategies, with 171 textile people participating. conducted this survey.
When asked about the future trend of raw material prices, 10% of textile people believe that raw material prices will rise, and 80% of textile people think that raw material prices will fall. 10% of textile people think it will be stable.
When asked about the strategy for purchasing raw materials, only 7% of textile people chose to stock up at this time, 26% chose to wait and see first, and 67% chose to buy and use as they came.
Academician Zhong Nanshan predicts that China will be able to basically control the epidemic by the end of April , but only 39% of textile people believe that raw materials will rebound by then, but 46% of textile people think that there will be no rebound.
It can be seen that most textile people are not interested in the next step There is no confidence in the polyester market. This lack of confidence is most directly derived from the performance of the polyester market last week.
Last week, affected by the spread of the epidemic abroad, international oil prices rarely fell sharply. The price of light crude oil futures for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange closed at $44.76 per barrel on February 28, with a cumulative decline of 16% in a week; the price of London Brent crude oil futures for April delivery closed at $44.76 per barrel on February 28. It was US$50.52 per barrel, a cumulative drop of 14% in a week, the lowest price since July 2017.
Under the influence of international oil prices, the polyester industry chain has also declined across the board.
In the week from February 24 to February 28, ethylene glycol fell by 115 yuan/ton, and PTA fell by 200 yuan/ton. Polyester FDY150D fell by 200 yuan/ton, POY150D fell by 375 yuan/ton, and DTY150D fell by 150 yuan/ton.
In the past when crude oil fell, the polyester market often “went its own way”, but this time it was so “following the trend” mainly due to the fundamentals. Impact.
The global spread of the epidemic
Beginning in late February, the focus of the epidemic’s growth began to shift from China to foreign countries, including South Korea, Italy, and Japan. , Iran, Singapore, the United States and other countries have successively discovered confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia.
South Korea, Italy and other countries have also taken measures such as closing cities and encouraging working from home due to the serious development of the epidemic.
The continued spread of the epidemic will most likely affect the subsequent foreign trade market, causing certain hidden dangers for the resumption of work in the weaving industry, thus affecting the polyester market. .
High inventory
Compared to the hidden worries in weaving, the excessive inventory of polyester factories is the most direct reason for the price reduction of polyester products.
From the statistical data of China Silk City Network, the overall inventory of the polyester market is now concentrated at 32-42 days; in terms of specific products, POY inventory is up to 26 -32 days, FDY inventory is around 27-33 days, while DTY inventory is around 33-42 days.
In terms of destocking, polyester has recently done Not entirely satisfactory either. Although weaving companies have resumed work one after another, this has not led to an improvement in the production and sales of polyester yarn. Last week, the production and sales of polyester factories basically remained at around 20-30%. This week, production and sales improved slightly, but only remained at around 40-60%. .
Judging from the above research questions, Boss Bu There are many people who are waiting to see the raw materials and buy them as they please. Therefore, in the short term, it is difficult for polyester filament destocking to produce obvious results.
The polyester market is further reshuffled
At present, there is a very obvious polarization in the polyester market. The top six polyester manufacturers in the industry Silk companies Tongkun, Xinfengming, Shenghong, Hengyi, Hengli and Rongsheng account for more than half of the total production capacity, and the industry concentration is increasing at a steady rate every year.
Leading chemical fiber companies have begun to open up the entire industry chain. However, some small and medium-sized chemical fiber companies have old machinery and equipment, and the products they produce have costs compared to those of large manufacturers. and quality gaps.
Although from now on, the profits of polyester filament still exist, but in the case of low production and sales, this price can only be regarded as “price but no market” “.
With no hope of destocking in the short term, higher requirements are placed on the company’s cash flow. Those leading companies have sufficient funds and the confidence to withstand such an impact, but what should those small and medium-sized chemical fiber companies that already have tight capital chains do?
Therefore, the editor judges that the reshuffle of the polyester industry will accelerate in the short term. After the epidemic, the industry’s agglomeration will reach a certain level in a short period of time. A greater degree of improvement.
Editor’s note: Starting this week, US stocks, International oil prices have begun to rebound, but for polyester products, it is difficult for Mr. Bu to buy it when the fundamentals have not changed significantly. Cloth bosses don’t buy it, and the falling prices of polyester raw materials will still be the mainstream in the future.
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