At the beginning of this week, international oil prices swept away the decline last week and began to rebound sharply. But the good times did not last long. As the epidemic continued to spread in various countries around the world, international oil prices began to decline, and Brent oil fell below the integer mark of US$50 per barrel.
On March 6, as further production cuts pushed by Saudi Arabia were boycotted by Russia, the OPEC+ (Petroleum Exporting Countries) meeting held in Vienna Organizations and allies) negotiations to expand production cuts ended in failure. Stimulated by this news, U.S. oil prices plummeted, and oil stocks fell across the board.
As of the close of the day, the global oil market benchmark, London Brent crude oil futures for May delivery, fell by US$4.72 to close at US$45.27 per barrel, a decrease of 9.44%, the highest in 2017. The lowest closing price since June. The price of light crude oil futures (WTI) for April delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell $4.62 to close at $41.28 a barrel, a drop of 10.07%, the largest single-day drop since November 2014.
Under the influence of crude oil, the price of polyester products first rose and then fell this week. As of March 5, The external price of PX dropped by US$26/ton compared with last week, the internal price of PTA increased slightly by 15 yuan/ton, and the internal price of MEG fell by 40 yuan/ton.
Polyester filament is no exception. After a slight increase, it began to fall, with each product falling between 150-600 yuan/ Tons vary.
In terms of production and sales, while the price of polyester filament began to rise, the production and sales of polyester factories have also recovered from last week’s downturn. The average production and sales on the 4th remained at around 80-90%. Among them, the production and sales of some mainstream polyester factories exceeded 100% on the 4th, reaching about 250%. But on the 6th, polyester production and sales fell back to 30-40%.
In terms of operating rate, as of March 6, the operating rate of polyester factories has rebounded slightly from last week, but it is also It has only reached 67.5%, which is far lower than the same period last year. On the contrary, the loom startup rate has increased rapidly and now exceeds 70%.
With polyester production openings so low, although production and sales do not seem high, the increase in raw material prices compared with the past has led to an explosion in production and sales There is also a big difference in the situation between two and three hundred. The inventory of polyester companies is actually slowly decreasing. However, compared with the nearly 40 days of polyester yarn inventory in polyester factories, this decline is obviously a bit slow.
Last week the editor conducted a survey on weaving companies’ raw material purchasing strategies. Nearly 200 companies participated in the survey. The survey shows that only 7% of textile workers will purchase raw materials in large quantities at this time, but two-thirds of textile workers said they will not consider stocking up and will use them as they go.
Combined with the above survey results to analyze the production and sales of this round, which is neither high nor low, the editor tries to find out the production and sales in the near future The reason for this behavior.
First of all, this is because the operating rate of weaving enterprises has increased. Most companies choose the strategy of purchasing raw materials as they are used. As the availability increases, the amount of raw materials consumed daily will naturally increase, which is equivalent to increasing the base of production and sales of polyester factories in the current stage.
Second, because there was less stockpiling last year, weaving companies have incentives to purchase raw materials. A few years ago, the editor interviewed the heads of some weaving companies. Except for a small number of textile people who were reluctant to take orders in 2019, most companies chose to stock up on raw materials for daily use for 15-30 days before the New Year. Because there is less inventory, raw materials need to be purchased more frequently, which has a certain promotion effect on production and sales.
Thirdly, the quantity of raw materials purchased this time is not large. Weaving companies themselves need to purchase raw materials. When they see the price increase of raw materials, they may buy 7-15 days more than usual because of the price increase, but they will not stock up on two or three as soon as they see the price increase like in previous years. The supply of raw materials has been reduced for months, which makes it difficult to see the surge in production and sales of more than 200% in previous years.
Finally, there is still insufficient confidence in the market. The outbreak of foreign epidemics has caused textile companies to have great uncertainty about the future foreign trade market in the recent stage. The poor market situation caused by overcapacity last year also reduced the confidence of textile people in the continued rise of raw materials. Therefore, there will be no “” If you buy it, you will earn it” mentality.
To summarize the above reasons, the editor…��A separate table lists the current status of polyester companies and weaving companies and the problems they may face in the future. I hope it can bring you some help.
Polyester factories want to destock, but weaving companies believe that raw material prices will not continue to rise and are unwilling to buy more. In the future market In the face of uncertainty, textile workers prefer to hold money in their hands rather than purchase raw materials.
Because there is no way to make too much effort in “opening up the flow”, polyester companies are currently focusing their hopes of destocking on “reducing sources”. The editor predicts that the inventory of polyester filament will drop significantly. Previously, there may not be a significant increase in the production capacity of polyester factories in the future.
In terms of price, with upstream raw materials plummeting and downstream weaving companies unwilling to pay for it, polyester filament may also maintain a “fall more than rise” situation. </p
