After the wave of orders accumulated during the New Year passed, the market returned to calmness. , cloth bosses are taking fewer orders, and dyeing factories are not as busy as before.
The editor has been quite bored recently. Because of the epidemic, I can’t go to the market. I can only chat with a few friends online on a daily basis, and the one I talk to the most is The current epidemic abroad.
For textile people, foreign countries account for “half of the entire market.” The blow caused by Sino-US trade friction last year is still fresh in our minds, and this time The global pneumonia epidemic may have far greater impact than the Sino-US trade friction, regardless of the area it affects or the impact it causes.
The editor also made a brief summary of some news that I have seen recently and the local textile market, hoping to bring some help to textile people.
Export volume: The EU is China’s largest textile exporter. In 2019, the cumulative export volume was 472.5 billion, but now this market is being ravaged by the new coronavirus epidemic.
Epidemic status: On March 11, the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in Italy exceeded 10,000, and it began to ask for help from China; and countries such as Germany, France, and Spain are now also It is difficult to protect itself. The cumulative number of confirmed cases exceeds 1,000, medical resources are in short supply, and news even broke out that 240,000 masks in Switzerland were intercepted. The United Kingdom is not immune to the disaster, and even senior officials of the Ministry of Health have also been “trapped”…
Difficulty of prevention and control: Although European countries have developed economies and high medical standards, due to the large-scale transfer of manufacturing industries abroad over the past few decades, the production of basic epidemic prevention materials has become the biggest problem. More importantly, with the exception of Italy, most European countries have not even taken the epidemic seriously, and people wearing masks when going out will be discriminated against.
Extent of impact: This is not good news for textile people. Academician Zhong Nanshan recently said that the global epidemic will be difficult to control before June. Considering the speed of the epidemic in Europe in recent days, the number of orders in the region will decrease sharply in recent months.
Export volume: Due to the Sino-US trade friction, China’s textile exports to the United States declined sharply in 2019. Annual exports to the United States were US$45.21 billion, a decrease of 7.7%. However, even so, the United States It is still China’s third largest textile exporter.
Epidemic status: As of March 11, the number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 in the United States has exceeded 1,000, spreading to more than 30 states, including Washington, California, New York, etc. States have entered states of emergency one after another. Columbia University in New York and Stanford University also announced suspension of classes due to faculty members being infected.
Difficulty of prevention and control: The recent plunge in international oil prices and the sharp fall in U.S. stocks have dealt a serious blow to the U.S. economy. In terms of epidemic prevention, the government has always claimed that to prevent COVID-19, you don’t need to wear a mask, you just need to wash your hands frequently, which is very “Buddhist”. But unlike Europe, the United States is, after all, the world’s most powerful country and has the world’s strongest medical level. If it concentrates its efforts on controlling the epidemic, it should still be possible to control the epidemic within a certain range.
Influence: In the short term, orders from the United States will naturally decrease. But in the long run, the shortage of medical supplies in the United States may contribute to the easing of Sino-US trade frictions in some aspects, and may bring some unexpected benefits to textile foreign trade.
Export volume: In recent years, the bilateral trade relationship in textiles and clothing between China and ASEAN has become increasingly intense. In 2019, the bilateral textile and clothing trade volume reached US$46.38 billion, and is growing steadily every year.
The current situation of the epidemic: I don’t know if the virus is really afraid of heat. The epidemic is not spreading seriously in ASEAN. The number of confirmed cases in major ASEAN countries such as Vietnam and Thailand is small. to 100 people.
Difficulty of prevention and control: Affected by China, ASEAN countries generally pay more attention to the new crown epidemic, so they are prepared for future prevention and control before a large-scale outbreak. Still relatively optimistic.
Extent of impact: Although my country’s textile exports to ASEAN are large, they include a large amount of textile raw materials and fabrics, which are further processed into ready-made garments in Southeast Asian countries before being exported.�Although ASEAN countries themselves have not been greatly affected by the epidemic, their main export countries, Europe, the United States, Japan and South Korea, have been deeply affected by the epidemic, so exports to ASEAN may not be optimistic in the next few months.
Export volume: In 2019, China’s textile exports to Japan reached US$19.9 billion, making it the fourth largest textile export destination after the EU, ASEAN, and the United States.
Epidemic status: The development of the epidemic in Japan is quite miraculous, and there are two voices from the official and private sectors. According to official data, the exact number of infected people has just exceeded 1,000, but there are also other voices saying that the number of nucleic acid tests in Japan is too few, and the actual number of infected people far exceeds this number. Without large-scale testing, we don’t know how many people are sick. It’s really “Schrödinger’s virus.”
Difficulty of prevention and control: Japanese people generally have relatively good hygiene habits, and masks are common supplies, which is beneficial to controlling the epidemic. But on the other hand, the official has not expressed its position on this, and some large-scale events have still not been cancelled. There are huge hidden dangers in this.
Extent of impact: Because the specific situation of the epidemic in Japan is in a “black box” state, no one knows what impact it will have in the future. The editor will take a pessimistic view here. Predicted, but what if the confirmed number of just over 1,000 is true/dog head.
Export volume: The Korean market is smaller than Japan. From January to June 2019, China’s textile exports to South Korea totaled US$2.74 billion.
Epidemic status: South Korea is one of the countries where the epidemic first broke out outside China. Under “Hallelujah”, the epidemic spread rapidly, and now the number of confirmed cases Already more than 7,000 people.
Difficulty of prevention and control: South Korea can be said to have seriously “copied China’s work”. It is the only one in the world to conduct 80,000 nucleic acid tests per day, and it itself The production capacity of 10 million masks per day can basically meet domestic needs. Nowadays, the number of new confirmed cases every day is less than 300, which is only one-tenth of that in European countries. The probability of controlling the epidemic in the future is very high.
Extent of impact: South Korea’s current situation is a bit like China in early February. Production and life have basically come to a standstill. In the short term, exports to South Korea will inevitably be affected. But in the long run, with effective epidemic prevention measures, the epidemic in South Korea may be the first to be controlled among the above-mentioned regions, and exports to South Korea may be the first to recover.
The above content is the editor’s personal opinion and may be mixed. Many personal opinions of the editor are provided for reference only.
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