Unknowingly, more than four months have passed in 2020, and a public health incident has affected the lives of too many people.
It is said that the COVID-19 epidemic is the biggest “black swan event” this year.
Note: In the financial field, “black swan” represents an unpredictable major rare event that is unexpected but changes everything.
The interest rate on U.S. Treasury bonds is inverted, the global manufacturing industry continues to decline, and the yields on government bonds in many countries have reached historical lows… These phenomena have been repeated in today’s world, and the global The economic crisis has evolved from a “black swan event” to a “grey rhino event.”
Note: “Gray rhino” refers to a potential crisis with high probability and huge impact. It is not random or sudden, but occurs after a series of warning signals and signs. high probability event.
The “black swan” incident has quietly evolved into today’s “grey rhino” and has appeared in the textile industry. From crude oil to polyester products PTA to polyester filament, to downstream weaving companies, and even to post-printing and dyeing finishing, the entire industry chain has fallen into a trough.
The decline in polyester products is hard to stop
Since the end of the OPEC+ oil production reduction meeting on April 9, international crude oil Prices kept falling. On Tuesday, oil prices plummeted, with U.S. crude falling below the $20 mark, hitting its lowest closing price in two weeks.
With the fluctuations in the crude oil market, the prices of polyester products have continued to decline and have almost hit bottom. The internal price of PTA is currently around 3,300 yuan/ton, down 860 yuan/ton from the end of March; the internal price of ethylene glycol is currently around 3,360 yuan/ton, down 940 yuan/ton from the end of March.
Chemical fiber raw materials continue to be in the doldrums
Polyester and polyester, both prosper and lose! Polyester filament is also doomed, with prices almost at the lowest level in the past 10 years. FDY 150D was quoted at around 5,600 yuan/ton, down 1,400 yuan/ton from the end of March; POY 150D was quoted at around 4,975 yuan/ton, down 1,525 yuan/ton from the end of March; DTY 150D was quoted at around 6,850 yuan/ton, down 1,600 from the end of March Yuan / ton. In terms of production and sales, the production and sales of polyester filament have continued to be sluggish in recent days, only at 20-40%. Weaving companies are more cautious and wait and see, and mainly purchase for urgent needs.
The weaving market has gradually reduced operations
For the current weaving market The market situation has left most companies extremely helpless. The gray cloth companies that produce market goods have very few shipments every day, mostly small orders of a thousand handfuls of rice, and large orders have disappeared. However, orders from gray fabric companies that produce orders are scarce, and most companies only have enough orders to last for 10-15 days. Especially in the foreign trade market, most companies have almost come to a standstill. A company that produces nylon four-way elastic reported that the current operating rate of hundreds of air-jet looms is only 50%. There are few orders and no inventory, so it has to reduce the operating rate.
When the editor visited the printing and dyeing factory, he saw the accumulation of gray fabrics in the factory. However, this was all an illusion. Entering the workshop, what you see is the dye vats that have stopped production and the empty workshop. The salesperson of the dyeing factory explained that most of the gray fabrics accumulated in the factory were brought into the warehouse by customers in early March. After receiving the notice of order cancellation in mid-March, they have been piled in the factory and have not been taken away. In fact, very few people have entered the warehouse for dyeing recently, the workers have all taken turns, and the machines can only run at most 60%.
The horror of “Black Swan” , just because you can’t predict it. For example, with polyester, can you perfectly avoid the fall? It’s hard. Can it hit the right rise? Harder. How many people buy the lowest price halfway up the mountain, but when a better buying point comes, they have already run out of bullets.
A textile boss recounted his experience: “At the end of last year, as usual and with low prices, we stocked up a lot of raw materials. The epidemic came too suddenly, and after the beginning of the new year, the price of polyester yarn dropped to such a low level that the light I lost 5 million on stocking up on raw materials! Now the price is even lower. Even if I want to buy more, I have no funds. Coupled with the sluggish market, the capital chain is very tight. I really regret it!” The experience of this textile boss is a bloody one Lessons learned, be cautious when buying lows!
However, all the current experiences of the textile market will eventually dissipate when the epidemic is over, the economy recovers, companies resume work, and clothing demand rebounds. The textile market can still be expected. Every black swan event is full of surprises and shocks. But there are no difficulties that are insurmountable, no disasters that will never end, and those quieter years in life will still come.
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