Real-time statistics released by Johns Hopkins University in the United States show that as of about 6:30 on April 27, Beijing time, the cumulative number of confirmed cases worldwide There are 2,964,543 cases of COVID-19 and a total of 206,055 deaths.
The global COVID-19 epidemic continues to spread. The “epicenter” of the United States has been diagnosed with more than 960,000 cases. The total number of confirmed cases in the United States has increased approximately four times in the past month. Europe is still not optimistic. Due to the need for epidemic prevention and control, Italy did not hold a military parade on “National Liberation Day” for the first time in history; at least two members of the Russian State Duma were diagnosed with the new coronavirus.
As the epidemic intensifies, the textile foreign trade market has suffered a huge blow. Foreign trade exports have almost stagnated, and the domestic trade market is not doing well. Everyone is mainly waiting and watching. In the end, the textile company had no orders, the gray fabrics in the weaving factory were piled high and high, and the salesmen in the sales department were free to play cards every day.
However, in such a market situation, there are still many so-called “business opportunities”. Some of them may be true, but most of them are Hype. Today, the editor will briefly take stock of three popular hype concepts recently.
Copying is not the bottom! It’s a routine
International crude oil prices have been falling continuously since early January this year. Under the impact of the COVID-19 epidemic, the demand for oil in various countries has shrunk significantly. In addition, the production reduction agreement between OPEC and non-OPEC oil-producing countries such as Russia came too late and the scale of production reduction was relatively insufficient. It was simply not enough to reverse the sharp decline in international oil prices.
On April 20, the price of the May contract of New York crude oil futures fell to an unprecedented negative value. After that, the June contract was “bloodbathed” again on April 21. , international oil prices are no longer just “cut in half”, but directly cut to “the knees”.
Driven by international oil prices, the prices of various polyester products have also experienced alarming declines.
The historical low prices of polyester products have been refreshed again and again, allowing There was a commotion in the minds of the cloth bosses over and over again. Everyone knows that this year’s low prices are rare in a century, and raw material prices will definitely rise in the future. Therefore, as soon as good news comes out, some cloth bosses become a little “uncontrollable.” Of course, it is okay for weaving companies to buy polyester yarn at low prices. Although they may not necessarily make money, it is unlikely that they will lose a lot at the current price. The biggest problem is that it will occupy a certain amount of working capital. However, some brave people went to buy crude oil, gold and other things that they did not understand, and in the end, the majority of people lost money.
“Outstanding” epidemic prevention supplies, Only for those who are prepared
Under the influence of the epidemic, the demand for most products has almost shrunk, except for anti-epidemic supplies because of the global The anti-epidemic needs have shown “outstanding performance”. Therefore, anti-epidemic supplies have become a new trend in the market, and many textile people have joined in.
In the past two years, domestic functional fabrics have developed rapidly, such as waterproof fabrics, stretch fabrics, and anti-static fabrics. With the epidemic raging, protective clothing fabrics have become a hot commodity on the market. Because some conventional fabrics such as 190T pongee and nylon four-way elastic can have certain protective functions after finishing treatment, they are highly sought after by the market, driving a wave of sales of these fabrics.
But we have to realize that protective clothing fabrics are a niche product after all. A large amount of weaving production capacity was idle during the epidemic, and what is popular this time are some conventional ones. There is no threshold for product and production. As long as the idle machines across the country are fully operational, the actual demand for hundreds of millions of meters will only have two or three days of production capacity, not to mention that most weaving companies have stocks of these products.
Therefore, it is okay to rely on the concept of epidemic prevention to take advantage of a wave of inventory, but it is still a bit overthinking to say that production will be restarted at full capacity. .
Resumption of work in Europe and the United States? Demand is still difficult to pick up in the short term
Recently, news about the resumption of work and production in European and American countries has emerged one after another.
Trump claimed at a regular White House briefing: “I believe some states can lift strict social isolation measures before the end of April, and their economies are expected to recover in May. Restart before March 1.”
The same is true for Italy. On the evening of the 18th local time, Italian Prime Minister Conte continued to communicate with the resumption task force, medical experts, and local governments. Representatives held a video conference to discuss the gradualMatters related to relaxing control measures and resuming production.
The German federal and state governments have reached an agreement on the next national policy to respond to the new coronavirus epidemic. According to the agreement, starting from the 20th of this month, shops with an area of no more than 800 square meters can resume opening under the conditions of meeting cleanliness and personnel restrictions.
The resumption of work and production in European and American countries is indeed good news for Chinese textile companies. Some people use this as a reason to speculate on the prices of raw materials and gray fabrics. . But on the one hand, the epidemic is still not under control. Once work and production are resumed, it means that all previous efforts to prevent the epidemic have been almost wasted; on the other hand, because of the sharp drop in income during the shutdown, highly indebted countries in Europe and the United States will inevitably tighten money for a certain period of time in the future. In clothing and other industries, The consumption of products has been greatly reduced. , therefore, the editor feels that we should be cautiously optimistic about this.
Without being affected by these hype concepts, What issues should textile people focus on?
Looking at the demand, today’s textile market is not good. In the final analysis, there is a problem with demand. If the demand problem is not solved, the market situation will not really improve. Raw materials , the price of gray cloth basically cannot rise. And what do you think about demand? In fact, it is very simple. It just depends on the number of orders in the market. Only when companies can really receive orders and restart the closed machines can the demand really improve.
Secondly, look at the inventory. Under the current market conditions, Both polyester and weaving are in a stage of accumulated inventory. Polyester inventory has reached 33 days, and weaving inventory has reached 43.5 days. Even if there is a small improvement in the market and a wave of goods are sold in the market, considering the stock of conventional gray fabrics on the market, weaving companies and polyester factories can only breathe a sigh of relief at most, but cannot say that they are really alive. Come over. How to control its own inventory and prevent it from threatening its own survival is also an issue that textile companies now need to consider carefully.
Thirdly, look at the capital chain. For most textile companies, they are now in a situation of less input and more output. Even if there are not many losses on the books, the cash flow is still there. Being compressed every second. In the end, it’s a question of who can hold on with the funds on hand. The longer they hold on, the more chance they have of waiting until the market picks up.
Editor’s note: Hype is a double On the one hand, it can indeed drive a wave of sales to a certain extent, but on the other hand, it may also cause market overheating. Under the current market conditions, market overheating will turn some textile people into “takeovers” and consume Valuable working capital in hand. In today’s market conditions, textile companies must keep a clear mind, seek advantages and avoid disadvantages, and make the survival of the company their top priority.
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