It has risen for several days and then fell again!
During the May Day period, the international crude oil market rose strongly, driving the polyester market to rise to varying degrees, especially in terms of polyester filament. Product prices have increased by 100-600 yuan/ton. However, the market enthusiasm has subsided rapidly in the past two days, and the price of polyester yarn has dropped significantly. Among them, FDY and POY products have room for decline of about 80 yuan/ton, while DTY products are relatively stable.
Polyester prices fluctuate significantly, the most important thing is The reason is that the shrinking demand for end-use clothing has made it difficult for the fabric and gray fabric markets to improve, causing polyester prices to be affected. After the spread of the COVID-19 epidemic, global demand has dropped sharply and it has been difficult to place orders. Although some countries in Europe and the United States have recently begun to gradually resume work, the epidemic has severely suppressed the economy and it is still difficult to recover demand. Although clothing is a necessity, you should not buy clothes for a while. There is no big problem.
At present, the entire textile market is still tepid and lacks support from orders. The decrease in terminal demand has made it difficult for polyester filament production and sales to be flat. Only when the crude oil market is strong can it drive a wave of polyester shipments. The rest of the time, production and sales are relatively flat, around 50%. At the same time, polyester inventories are still at a relatively high level.
Weaving is not being purchased, and inventory is high, causing polyester manufacturers to start reducing their load. After the hope of “Gold, Three, Silver and Four” failed, the market situation did not improve significantly after May Day. As of the 8th, polyester manufacturers had reduced the load of polyester filament to about 78.2%.
Whether it is polyester or polyester The ester raw material end is still the gray cloth and fabric market, and the most important factor that determines its life and death is demand! As the load of polyester yarns decreases, the demand for polyester raw materials will naturally decrease. As one of the important raw materials for polyester filament, ethylene glycol will naturally not be spared.
Recently, ethylene glycol has ushered in another wave of centralized overhaul:
On May 7, a 220,000-ton syngas production MEG unit in Shouyang, Yangmei Coal, was shut down for maintenance for about a month.
On May 7, a 220,000-ton syngas production MEG unit in Shenzhou was shut down for maintenance, which lasted about a month.
On May 9, a 420,000-ton/year MEG device in Tiansha was shut down for maintenance. The maintenance is expected to take 1-2 months.
A 340,000-ton/year MEG device in East China has been shut down for maintenance. The device is scheduled to be overhauled in about 45 days.
Tianjin Petrochemical’s 100,000 tons/year ethylene glycol unit has been shut down for maintenance recently, and the maintenance is scheduled to last until June 20.
In fact, in March and April, the ethylene glycol unit underwent a large-scale overhaul. Since the OPEC+ production reduction agreement fell short of expectations and the overall market panic caused by the global spread of the epidemic, international crude oil prices have fallen sharply. The cliff-like plunge in oil prices has brought about the collapse of the cost side of the chemical market. The spot price of ethylene glycol futures once fell below 3,000 yuan/ Ton.
The biggest reason why the market is so weak for ethylene glycol is due to the prominent contradiction between its supply and demand.
In terms of demand, the sluggish demand for polyester has severely restricted the market for ethylene glycol.
On the supply side, starting from 2018, China’s coal-to-ethylene glycol production began to be concentrated, breaking the supply and demand balance of ethylene glycol. In early 2020, the oil production The total production capacity of large-scale plants Zhejiang Petrochemical and Hengli Petrochemical is 2.55 million tons, which is normally supplied to the market, bringing China’s total ethylene glycol production capacity to nearly 14 million tons, an increase of 50% compared to the beginning of 2018, making the supply and demand problem more obvious.
And this time ethylene glycol The device is undergoing maintenance again, which is also related to the weakening of its basic structure.
Ethylene glycol load is low, but stocks are still rising
The most direct impact of the maintenance is to alleviate the pressure of supply and demand. Recently, many ethylene glycol units have maintenance plans, and early unit maintenance has not been restarted. As a result, the recent ethylene glycol load is still at a low level, even lower than the level during the Spring Festival. As of May 8, the load of the ethylene glycol unit has dropped from the previous period to about 61.9%.
The load has dropped, but the inventory remains Climb upward. As of May 8, the inventory of ethylene glycol at the main port in East China was around 1.236 million tons, reaching a high level in the past nine months. Among them, Ningbo has 110,000 tons, Shanghai and Changshu have 83,000 tons, Zhangjiagang has 733,000 tons, Taicang has 165,000 tons, Jiangyin has 75,000 tons, and Changzhou has 70,000 tons.
Before May Day, the volume of ethylene glycol arriving at the port was concentrated. However, due to port congestion, the unloading speed of ships was slow and the inventory slowed down. After the holidays, ethylene glycol stocks increased significantly, and ports were closed due to strong winds, resulting in delays in port shipments and serious cargo stranding at ports.
Postscript
This wave of centralized maintenance of ethylene glycol can also reflect the current status of the polyester market from the side, especially polyester filament, which has been affected by the epidemic. , many domestic and foreign orders have stagnated, and demand recovery is difficult, resulting in polyester yarn being unsatisfactory in terms of price, production, sales, and inventory. Judging from the latest news, the spread of the global epidemic is still serious. Brazil, India, and Russia have lost control one after another. The epidemic in the United States is even more complicated, and even the epidemic has begun to spread within the White House.
It can be seen that when demand will return to normal is still unknown, and the polyester market is under great pressure to reverse.
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