From the end of April to the present, in less than a month, polyester filament has entered a rising channel, and products of various specifications have The prices of polyester FDY and polyester POY increased by nearly 1,000 yuan.
After such a big increase, how the price of polyester will change next has become a matter of great concern to textile people.
One rise and one fall are the rules
Since February 21, when weaving companies have resumed work and production, the price of polyester filament can be roughly divided into two stages:
The first stage is from late February to early April. During this period, due to factors such as the epidemic and the price war between oil-producing countries, market confidence was lacking. During this period, , the price of polyester yarn plummeted;
The second stage is from the beginning of April to the present. During this period, the market is facing the rapid spread of the epidemic around the world. Stimulated by sporadic good news, polyester prices rebounded three times. In early April, it was due to the reduction in crude oil production. In late April, it was due to the resumption of work and production in Europe and the United States. In late May, it was due to the improvement of market orders in early May and the removal of weaving. A part of the company’s inventory.
And the recent wave of polyester prices in late May After rising, will it fall back like the previous two times? The editor will analyze it from several angles.
International oil prices
Driven by the resumption of work and production in Europe and the United States, international crude oil prices have rebounded sharply for four consecutive weeks. This is also the direct reason for the general rise in polyester raw materials this time.
Last week, the main U.S. NYMEXWTI crude oil futures (CL) contract closed at $33.6/barrel on Friday, a weekly increase of 12.83%; the international benchmark ICEBrent crude oil futures (OIL) The main contract closed at US$35.74/barrel, a weekly increase of 9.1%.
However, on the 22nd, international oil prices ended their seven consecutive rises and began to fall.
As of the close of the day, the price of light crude oil futures for July delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by US$0.67 to close at US$33.25 per barrel, a decrease of 1.98%. . The price of London Brent crude oil futures for July delivery fell by 0.93 US dollars to close at 35.13 US dollars per barrel, a decrease of 2.58%.
On May 25, international oil prices rose slightly by about 1%.
Currently, the current upward trend in international oil prices has ended and has begun to enter a volatile range; in the long term, the cumulative number of confirmed cases of COVID-19 worldwide has exceeded 540 Ten thousand people, including more than 1.64 million in the United States, more than 230,000 in Italy, and more than 230,000 in Spain. Under such circumstances, whether the resumption of work and production can be implemented smoothly is also unknown.
Therefore, there is still a risk of a sharp decline in international oil prices in the future.
Inventory
From the statistical data of China Silk City Network, the overall inventory of the polyester market is now concentrated in 23-33 days; in terms of specific products, POY inventory is 15-22 days, and FDY inventory is 15-22 days. Around 16-22 days, while DTY inventory is around 24-34 days.
On the one hand, due to the impact of the epidemic, the operating rate of weaving companies is generally low, and the previous sharp decline has made a large number of weaving companies afraid to stock up on raw materials. Today’s The inventory of polyester factories is definitely higher than the same period in previous years;
But on the other hand, the low operating rate of polyester factories and the start of April Driven by several waves of market conditions, some weaving companies have changed their past strategy of purchasing raw materials as they go, choosing to purchase more raw materials. Some traders in the market have also chosen to stock up on raw materials at bargain prices, passing on the pressure from some polyester companies. .
Therefore, for polyester factories, the current willingness to reduce polyester prices is not as urgent as it was in early April.
Demand aspects
For weaving companies, whether there is order demand from the downstream determines their confidence in the market and whether they have the confidence to purchase a large amount of raw materials at one time.
For polyester factories, only downstream weaving companies buy in can they have the confidence to support the current polyester price.
In the past two weeks, we found that during the period from late April to early May, the market demand was higher than that in March and April. A clear improvement, judging from the order composition, internalThe number of orders is much higher than that of external orders.
However, the good times did not last long. After mid-May, the number of orders began to decrease rapidly. This was mainly because the market entered the traditional off-season. According to the experience of previous years , the off-season generally lasts until the end of August.
In years when the market is not good, weaving companies often choose to reduce operating rates during the off-season in order to reduce inventory and financial pressure. This year’s market can be said to be It has been the worst in more than ten years. It is highly likely that weaving companies will choose to reduce production in the future.
Therefore, the demand for raw materials in the weaving market may not increase but decrease in the next few months, which may put some pressure on the price of polyester filament. .
Postscript
On the one hand, the rising trend of polyester filament yarns should have come to an end. The spread of the epidemic and the arrival of the off-season will also suppress the polyester yarn market to a certain extent. price; but on the other hand, the inventory pressure of polyester factories has been greatly relieved compared with February and March, and the willingness to continue to reduce prices is not strong, so the extent of price reductions may not be as large as cloth bosses expect.
Overall, for a long time in the future, as the market gradually declines due to the impact of the epidemic, and under the impact of waves of market conditions, the demand for polyester filament yarns will The price may be in an upward spiral state of rising sharply, then falling slightly, then rising sharply, then falling slightly again.
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