The recent market can be said to be subject to wind and rain. As soon as there is any disturbance, the market will react immediately! Especially the raw material market, but such an increase has always lacked continuity!
Last week’s battle over the rise in raw materials has quietly faded away. With the basis of this round of price increases – the decline in international oil prices, weaving The market has returned to its former calm! “Originally I thought the market was picking up, but it turned out that it only improved a week ago and the market fell back again.” said the person in charge of a textile company that mainly sells imitation silk fabrics.
Recently, a friend complained to the editor that he went to the market and found that the market was deserted after 10 o’clock, and the entire trade area was no longer as lively as it used to be.
Some people in the industry also tweeted with emotion: In front of a foreign trade company, there was a car parked with thick leaves piled on the front windshield. A Toyota car that had been abandoned by its owner for a long time.
No matter which scene, for textile people, it means that the current market orders are still weak. Affected by the COVID-19 epidemic in 2020, the domestic textile industry has been greatly impacted. The entire industrial chain has been stagnant upstream and downstream for nearly a month, and even for nearly two months in some areas.
In the entire upstream and downstream, Boss Bu can be said to be the most difficult this year. To use a more vulgar word to describe it, it is like “a rat entering the bellows” – suffering from both ends. “It’s really difficult for us now. We still can’t get rid of last year’s inventory. Raw materials have risen in the early stage, so we don’t dare to raise prices. We’re afraid that if the price rises, the remaining orders will be wiped out.” A company mainly sells polyester taffeta. stated by the manufacturer.
The “super large order” has failed, and the market has entered the inventory accumulation stage again!
In the early stage, affected by the public health incident, chemical fiber protective clothing fabrics ushered in a wave of “small climax” in the market. For a time, there were constant shortages, queues, and price increases, but the market situation has also come. In a hurry, it goes in a hurry. After more than half a month, the early super large orders have come to an end. Many manufacturers said that the recent new orders are not ideal, and the inventory of gray fabrics has begun to rise.
“Since this week, we have not received any big orders, but are operating some small orders. In the early stage, due to delivery, all the machines were changed to produce 190T polyester taffeta. However, there have been no orders recently, and we have changed it again. Return to other products.” said a textile boss who owns more than 200 looms and produces polyester taffeta.
In May, driven by raw materials, the fabric market also ushered in a wave of destocking. The price of raw materials rose by more than a thousand yuan at one time, which stimulated the purchasing atmosphere of mid-range traders, especially in markets such as Wuhan and Zhongda. The sentiment of attracting goods at low prices grew. Polyester taffeta, pongee, Oxford cloth, imitation silk, etc. were on the market. Product orders have shown varying degrees of improvement, leading to a slight decline in manufacturers’ inventories.
But in the second half of the year, this wave of enthusiasm seems to be fading. Spring and summer clothing fabrics, especially, have passed the sales season, and the market has taken a turn for the worse. For autumn and winter fabrics, the recovery of end consumption is less than expected, and order expressions are also relatively slow, which has led to the market Supply and demand are out of balance again, and inventories are rising slightly.
It is understood that the inventories of some weaving manufacturers have increased again recently. “The market has only been good for a week. Recently, our inventory has begun to rise again. The factory has been piling up inventory for a month and a half. It’s hard to predict the market situation in the future. It feels like the off-season is coming.” An imitation memory manufacturer said worriedly.
After all, foreign customers canceled a large number of orders in the past, basically in the weaving process, which resulted in a lot of gray fabric inventory, especially some special products customized by customers. If the orders are not restored, they will basically become dead inventory. In addition, The social inventory originally left in 2019 was higher than in previous years, which led to greater pressure on weaving manufacturers to have low inventories this year. According to data from sample companies monitored by China Silk City Network, the current inventory of gray fabrics in Shengze is about 41-42 days, which is an increase of 4-5 days compared with the same period last year.
Textile company owners are worried and beware of the “second shock wave”
Now in 2020 One-third of the year has passed, and the impact of overseas epidemics on the textile market has begun to improve. More than one foreign trade boss has told the editor that recently canceled orders have been returned or orders with delayed shipments are also being prepared for shipment. However, compared with the same period in previous years, the shrinking sales in the first five months of this year will definitely severely damage the vitality of some companies. In the next second quarter, deep repair will become the main theme of the market.
From the perspective of overseas markets, the “epicenter” in Europe and the United States has passed, but there is still great uncertainty in Southeast Asia, and market orders Recovery can also suffer from this. according toWe understand that the recent order situation in the United States, Spain, Italy and other regions has been significantly better than that in Southeast Asian countries such as Vietnam. “Currently, we can have orders on hand until the end of June, but we don’t know what will happen next, and we are still worried about the continuity of orders.” said an export supplier of home textile fabrics.
Some experts said that domestic economic activities were suspended due to the impact of the epidemic in the early stage, but as the first wave of impact has passed, the second wave of impact is on the way, and the second wave of impact is likely to be greater than and longer than the first wave. The wave of shocks is mainly due to the impact of overseas epidemics on China’s import and export.
In fact, every economic activity has a certain cycle. In 1998, the overcapacity in the market was later rescued by the external demand of the World Trade Organization. In the 2008 subprime mortgage crisis, foreign trade demand fell, and was initiated by the country’s 4 trillion yuan. In 2013 Later, the market once again fell into overcapacity and weak demand. Later, a batch of production capacity was eliminated due to environmental protection, safety supervision and other measures, and the market improved again.
The impact of the “black swan” of this year’s epidemic is still continuing. When it is relieved will directly determine the resumption of work and consumption recovery demand of overseas countries’ own enterprises, thus affecting the recovery of the domestic textile industry! </p
