While paying attention to the recent polyester prices, the editor discovered something interesting.
Affected by the epidemic, the price of polyester filament continued to fall, reaching the lowest point in early April;
Throughout April, the price of polyester filament experienced a process of first rising and then falling. By the end of April, it almost fell by the increase at the beginning of the month;
Since May, polyester prices have been fluctuating, but they have risen more and fallen less;
And by May In late March, the price of polyester yarn has become a situation of “it can go up, but it can’t go down”.
It can be seen that the price of polyester filament seems to be rising as time goes by. Why is this happening? Will the price of polyester yarn continue to rise in the future?
Polyester price
On June 2, the price of polyester FDY150D increased by 1,120 yuan/ton compared with April 1. The price of polyester POY150D increased by 720 yuan/ton. The price increase of polyester DTY150D was smaller, but it also increased by 200 yuan. /Ton.
Judging from the increase alone, the increase in polyester filament in the past two months is indeed very huge, but in fact, even at the current price, polyester filament is still At a very low price.
Compared with the same period last year, the price of polyester FDY150D fell by 1,780 yuan/ton, the price of polyester POY150D fell by 2,055 yuan/ton, and the price of polyester DTY150D fell. 2100 yuan/ton.
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In fact, the price of polyester yarn fell to a historical low in early April due to many reasons, among which The most important ones are the epidemic and international oil prices.
Although the epidemic is still developing, Europe and the United States have begun to resume work and production, and international oil prices have returned to above US$35/ton. Under such circumstances If the price is lower, there will be no reason for the polyester yarn to remain at a low level.
Inventory
From the statistical data of China Silk City Network, the overall inventory of the polyester market is now concentrated in 23-33 days; in terms of specific products, POY inventory is 14-21 days, and FDY inventory is 14-21 days. Around 16-22 days, while DTY inventory is around 24-34 days.
We can also see from the inventory monitoring chart that the polyester factory inventory is now around 30 days. Although this inventory quantity is higher than last year’s highest point It is a bit higher, but compared with the highest point at the end of March this year, the overall inventory has dropped for about 10 days, and polyester factories no longer have as much pressure to destock as they did at the beginning of the year.
As we all know, the production capacity of polyester factories has been declining in recent years. Concentration to a few large factories, and this year’s epidemic has further accelerated this concentration, so polyester factories have very strong control over the pricing power of polyester yarn.
Now that there is no great pressure to destock, polyester factories will naturally hope that the price of polyester yarn will rise quickly.
Profit aspect
Finally, it’s about profit . From the polyester profit trend chart, we can see that the changes in polyester profit in 2020 are basically divided into three stages.
The first stage is from early February to mid-March. During this period, although polyester profits fluctuated, they were basically at a high level. , but at this time, companies have just resumed operations from the epidemic, and polyester yarn is basically in a state of price and no market;
The second stage is from late March to In early April, during this period, due to the sharp fall in international oil prices, the price of polyester yarn also fell sharply, resulting in a huge decline in final profits until it fell into a loss dilemma;
The third stage is from the beginning of April to the present. Polyester profits are in a volatile situation, but overall they have rebounded. Among them, FDY profits have rebounded to a relatively greater extent.
However, although polyester profits have rebounded slightly recently, However, POY and DTY still failed to turn losses into profits in the short term, so polyester factories are more willing to raise prices.
Polyester factories want to increase prices, polyester prices can really go up ? The editor starts from the loom start-up rate, terminal demand and blanks.�After analyzing the three aspects of price, I feel that there are still considerable difficulties.
In terms of startup rate, according to data testing from China Silk City Network, as of May On the 29th, the operating rate of water-jet looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang was 75%, down nearly 15% from the same period in previous years.
In terms of market demand, we obtained from recent visits to the market In conclusion, after late May, the number of orders on the market dropped sharply compared with the beginning of May, and foreign trade orders have not picked up for the time being, so most companies have returned to the stage of accumulating inventory.
In terms of cloth prices, due to the weaving at the beginning of the epidemic Enterprises have no orders and can only weave inventory, and the inventory is basically conventional varieties with large market demand and relatively simple technology. This leads to a very large inventory of conventional products in the market. In the case of oversupply, even if the price of raw materials increases, cloth The price cannot go up, which makes the cloth bosses not very accepting of the price increase of polyester yarn.
Every time you buy silk, it is an adventure
For weaving companies, changes in polyester prices have always been a matter of major concern. It directly affects the company’s production and operation strategies and profit margins.
I bought less raw materials. If the price of polyester filament rises sharply like in the summer of 2018, the price of the same cloth will be higher than that of the previous year. If others are higher, the product will be less competitive in the market;
If you buy too much raw materials, if you encounter a sharp drop in polyester prices like at the beginning of this year , which not only means the more you buy, the more you lose, but it also takes up valuable liquidity.
During the epidemic, weaving companies are having a hard time. Insufficient demand, excessive gray fabric inventory, and insufficient cash flow have become common problems for most companies. .
But on the other hand, it is precisely because of this that international oil prices have been suppressed to the extreme, making the price of polyester raw materials close to the lowest price in history, which is as high as 4 Oil prices remained the same last month. Everyone knows that the economy will recover and demand will improve, but we don’t know when exactly it will improve. Everyone knows that the low price of polyester yarn will definitely rise back, but now it is more difficult to operate, and the problem of overcapacity has not been reversed. At this time, buying yarn will occupy the company’s precious cash flow.
So every time the market comes, companies will be extremely cautious. On the one hand, they are afraid of missing out on low-priced raw materials; Mountainside.
However, judging from the current situation, the probability of polyester filament falling in the future is low. If there is a market trend, it may take advantage of the trend to rise slightly; however, terminal demand It has not yet recovered, and the cash flow of weaving enterprises has become increasingly tight, which cannot effectively support the rise of polyester yarn. In the short term, the market does not have room for long-term sustained growth of polyester yarn.
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