If we look at the price of polyester filament from April to now, we can clearly see a rebound trend. With the recovery of international oil prices and the control of the domestic epidemic, good news continues to come out of the upstream and downstream of polyester filament, driving up the price of polyester filament. Keep bouncing back.
But starting from June, the rebound momentum seems to have stopped. Prices occasionally rise and fall, but they are not lasting. In the end, the price often fluctuates by no more than one or two hundred in a week. It just rose this week and fell next. Zhou Ma immediately fell back and fell into a dilemma of “can’t go up and can’t fall down”.
Why can’t the price of polyester filament rise?
Why can’t it fall?
How can this situation change?
Crude oil: Hitting the $40 ceiling
Crude oil is the most source raw material for polyester yarn, although it is not completely It determines the price of polyester filament, but when it fluctuates significantly, it often affects the price changes of various products in the polyester industry chain.
Now that the market is stabilizing, the polyester market lacks other factors to stimulate. The rebound in crude oil prices has become the main factor contributing to the rise in polyester prices.
However, when crude oil approached US$40, the rebound seemed to hit a ceiling. On June 22, WTI crude oil rose above US$40. As a result, oil prices fell back again on June 23, and started again on the 24th. Big fall.
As of the close on the 24th, the price of light crude oil futures for August delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange fell by US$2.36 to close at US$38.01 per barrel, a decrease of 5.85%. The price of London Brent crude oil futures for August delivery fell by US$2.32 to close at US$40.31 per barrel, a decrease of 5.44%.
In the long run, even if oil prices rise again in the future, it will be difficult to rise from 10 US dollars/barrel to 40 US dollars/barrel in a short period of time as it did in the past two months, with a huge amount of 300%. The increase has been mainly due to the macroeconomic impact of the epidemic.
For polyester filament, it will be difficult to rely on a rebound in oil prices to drive up polyester prices in a short period of time.
Demand: When the epidemic encounters the off-season
Upstream crude oil cannot drive, and downstream weaving is not very strong either.
The textile market has entered the traditional off-season since June. In previous years, this was the time when a weaving company had accumulated inventory of gray fabrics. In the first half of this year, due to the impact of the epidemic, foreign trade exports basically stagnated, and there was already a large amount of inventory backlogged in warehouses.
The boss of Youbu joked that if you don’t pile millions of meters of inventory in the warehouse now, you would be embarrassed to tell others that you are in the textile industry.
It can be said that in today’s weaving companies, it is normal for warehouses to be filled with inventory. There is still room for piles of cloth in the warehouse. Either the business is particularly good, or the warehouse is built better than others. Big.
According to data monitoring from China Silk City Network, the average inventory of gray fabrics in weaving enterprises in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has exceeded 43 days, reaching the highest level during the year.
At the same time, the startup rate is not optimistic and has dropped to less than 70%.
Therefore, under such circumstances, it is not surprising that weaving companies have chosen to reduce production and suspend production. If weaving companies stop producing, they will naturally stop buying yarn. It will be even more difficult to increase the price of polyester yarn.
Profit: It has rebounded, and polyester manufacturers are profitable
In addition, profit is also an important factor, which can be clearly seen from the recent profit trend chart of various polyester filament products. It can be seen clearly that from April to now, the profit of polyester yarn has experienced four major fluctuations, and at the end of each fluctuation, the overall profit of polyester yarn will rise slightly. The current situation is approaching the end of polyester profit fluctuations.
The profits of polyester yarn have been fluctuating and rebounding, and according to the current price, polyester manufacturers are still profitable. Therefore, polyester manufacturers have no reason to raise the price of polyester yarn at this stage. .
Can’t fall
Why can’t the price of raw materials fall? Why can’t the price of raw materials fall? The reason is much simpler.
On the one hand, the current prices of raw materials are honestly not expensive. The following is the current price of various specifications of polyester filament this year, last year, and the year before last. It can be seen that the price of polyester filament last year was at least 2,300 yuan/ton higher than this year, and the price of the year before last was even almost 1,000 yuan higher than last year. /Ton.
There is no harm without comparison. Compared with the same period in the previous two years, the polyester price this year has not jumped.”Sale price”, it can also be regarded as a “big discount”.
On the other hand, it is related to the strategy of weaving companies to purchase raw materials. In the past Raw material price reduction promotions can encourage weaving companies to stock up on goods. But now that weaving companies have no money, they have made up their minds to buy and use whatever they want. Maybe when the price of raw materials falls, fewer manufacturers will buy silk.
Under such circumstances, polyester companies will not suddenly think of cutting prices to sell yarn. At most, they will conduct a wave of promotions for a period of time to drive sales. However, it is almost impossible to really reduce the price of polyester yarn. .
When will the “vicious circle” of polyester prices break?
It can be seen that the price of polyester “cannot rise or fall.” It is mainly affected by fundamentals. If the epidemic is not under control, overseas orders are delayed, and terminal demand does not increase, the polyester market will naturally not recover.
And there is no need to put too much hope in it. Oil prices, according to the editor’s opinion, $40 is basically the ceiling for oil prices to rebound under the current economic situation. Unless another “big news” breaks out when OPEC+ holds a production reduction meeting in July, it will be a bit difficult to expect a big rise in a short period of time. Difficult.
To untie the bell, you must tie the bell. The “strange circle” comes from the fundamentals. If you want to break it, you must also do it on the fundamentals. Article.
If you want the market to improve, foreign trade must first recover;
If foreign trade wants to recover, the market must first restore confidence;
And if the market wants to restore confidence, Either the overseas epidemic is controlled or a vaccine is successfully developed.
There is a linear relationship between them.
At 8:01 am on June 20, Dr. Zhang Wenhong Released the latest judgment on the epidemic situation: Regardless of the arrival of a vaccine or not, the global epidemic will not spread until at least the end of the year and the first half of next year.
If here There has been news about the successful development of a vaccine, and market confidence may be restored early. However, in any case, it is difficult for the weak market to undergo fundamental changes before September this year, and it is difficult for polyester yarn to return to the price of the previous two years. </p
