On June 29th, the polyester filament sales will continue!
Holiday + price increase = production and sales are booming, but this time it “failed”!
Before the holidays, polyester filament factories were bleeding again. Some leading manufacturers directly lowered their quotations by 500 yuan, which was almost a 10% discount. Compared with the current cash flow, Look, it should be considered a fire sale at a loss. However, such a large promotional effort did not bring about sustained production and sales. After a one-day market tour, the market returned to calm again!
On the first trading day after the holiday, polyester yarn transactions were also light, with some POY production and sales at 20%, 30%, and 45%; some FDY production and sales at 30%, 20%, and 50%. ; Some DTY production and sales are at 80%, 30%, and 50%. In short: poor!
On the 29th, the promotion of polyester filament continued, and the quotations of mainstream manufacturers fell by 100-200 yuan/ton.
From the past 10 days Judging from the price trend chart, during the week of the Dragon Boat Festival, bulk textile raw materials are “green”!
For polyester manufacturers In other words, giving away profits before various holidays has been a recognized operating mode in the industry. Many weaving manufacturers will choose to replenish more or less goods at this node, but this Dragon Boat Festival holiday seems unusually “calm”. The editor asked I visited several weaving manufacturers, and most of the answers I got were: Don’t stock up, it’s enough!
Why do you feel this way? Because I dare not! To borrow the words of a textile boss: I often stand by the river and my shoes don’t get wet. This year, I basically have to cross the river!
Looking back before the Chinese New Year last year, many textile bosses spent “huge sums of money” to stockpile a lot of raw materials in preparation for production after the new year. However, an epidemic caused the original production to appear in February. The “good start” has turned bad. In March, polyester yarn fell, in April, polyester yarn fell, and in May, polyester yarn went up and down… With each exit and entry, the textile bosses who originally wanted to make money lost a lot.
A raw material salesperson said: “Nowadays, customers are relatively indifferent to raw materials. Before the Chinese New Year, a customer purchased 1,000 tons of raw materials at an unimaginably low price. He thought that the price would increase after the year, but the current price has already fallen below the low price at that time, and no one dares to take the risk!” This mentality continues to this day.
Of course, in the first two months, crude oil prices gradually rose from the bottom of 10 US dollars/barrel to 40 US dollars/barrel, and polyester filament also released clear bottom signals, triggering downstream weaving in succession. Manufacturers’ purchasing desire has brought their raw material inventory to a new high this year, which has reached a new high in the past month or so. However, due to financial constraints, textile companies’ raw material procurement strategies in June were more cautious, mostly consuming early inventory.
According to research, currently Most weaving manufacturers generally have about half a month of raw material inventory on hand. Manufacturers with large stockpiles have successively replenished the raw materials in their factories until late July or even the end of July during the last wave of market conditions. In other words, they are habitually stocking up on raw materials. Many manufacturers already have plenty of raw materials on hand, and those manufacturers that originally purchase as needed and buy some for use will not invest more in raw materials out of consideration for the overall situation.
“Expensive” flour and “cheap” bread, the market is in a dilemma !
In the face of polyester filament manufacturers ignoring the downstream trend and following crude oil prices from time to time, the market is really Is it getting better? The editor thinks, of course not!
Some people in the industry said that polyester filament manufacturers are just bluffing now, and price cuts in the future are still a high probability event.
For example, many polyester filament manufacturers have once again entered the inventory accumulation stage. In addition to the production and sales exceeding 100 on the 23rd, polyester Filament manufacturers have not experienced heavy volume for more than half a month, and most of them have average production and sales of 50% or less.
For example, polyester factories are still operating at high load. Recently, a 250,000-ton polymer spinning filament device producing POY was restarted during the Dragon Boat Festival. The start-up of polyester production increased from 90.9% to 91.3%;
For example, silk prices rose in the early period, but gray cloth prices found it difficult to keep up. In order to reduce inventory, some cloth bosses When it comes to price increases, we can only rely on price wars to sell goods;
For another example, although there are signs of recovery in foreign trade, the contradiction between supply and demand remains unabated, and more and more weaving The boss is beginning to consider the second round of production cuts and holidays. Later, the texturing and weaving markets will face a greater possibility of reduced production.
So, the biggest challenge this year for both raw material factories and weaving factories is how to regain demand. Throughout June, many textile people said that orders were mediocre. Although there were some signs of recovery in domestic and foreign trade, hot products were missing. After all, as terminal demand has not fully recovered, consumers can only consume rationally, and…Clothing is originally a non-essential necessity. People will only consider clothing after filling their stomachs. This also makes it difficult to drive demand recovery unless there are strong discounts and promotions downstream.
Then the polyester and fabrics in the intermediate links are in an awkward situation. On the one hand The rising prices of raw materials force them to increase prices, while falling downstream prices make it difficult for them to increase prices. The entire environment continues to release off-season signals, the contradiction between market supply and demand continues to escalate, and financial pressure will also amplify, so the proportion of raw materials purchased will also shrink.
In addition, the number of cases of the global epidemic has exceeded 10 million, which has had a large negative impact on the entire economy. , Now it seems that a recurrence of the epidemic is inevitable, and foreign demand is still facing greater pressure to return to the state last year. Mr. Wang, who handles foreign trade orders, said: “We can only support workers this year. It has been almost half a year since the beginning of the year, and we have not received a decent order. They are all orders of tens of thousands of meters. It is very difficult to make.” , if the raw materials continue to rise, then we will have a northwest wind!”
The contradiction between “expensive” flour and “cheap” bread can now be seen It will be difficult to neutralize in the short term. However, liquidity is relatively abundant this year. If the cost side rises sharply, it is still very likely to stimulate the downstream to enter the market again to obtain goods and end the “flour” deadlock in advance. However, the reality still depends on the terminal demand ( Changes in the epidemic situation at home and abroad) and the test of upstream (crude oil) price trends!
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