On the 6th, the Shanghai Stock Index continued its strong trend, breaking through the 3200 and 3300 points during the session, closing at a new high since February 2018, successfully achieving the “five Lianyang”. As of the close, the Shanghai Stock Exchange Index rose 5.71% to 3332.88 points, the largest single-day increase in five years; the Shenzhen Component Index rose 4.09% to 12941.72 points; the GEM Index rose 2.72% to 2529.49 points, returning to 2500 points. Brokerage stocks and bank stocks set off a trend of daily limit.
Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges’ full-day turnover reached 1,566.1 billion, exceeding one trillion for three consecutive days. Sentiment in the stock market was hot, and due to the sharp increase in trading volume in the two cities, some brokerage apps even went down.
In stark contrast to the surge in the stock market, In the textile market, both the volume and price of raw materials and gray fabrics fell. Textile people couldn’t help but “complain”: There is no harm without comparison. It is really too difficult!
Raw materials: The price is “floor price”, and production and sales have once again fallen into a vicious cycle of 40%
Since last year, the price of polyester filament has been in a downward trend. Occasionally, good news stimulated the rise, but it did not last. Without substantial positive support from the terminal, it is difficult for polyester prices to improve. Especially now that the textile market has entered the traditional off-season, polyester prices have started to fall again, and the previous increase must be reduced.
Up to now, the price focus of various polyester filament products has fallen sharply. The price of FDY products is around 5,500 yuan/ton, the price of POY products is around 5,100 yuan/ton, and the price of DTY products is around 6,700 yuan/ton. Compared with the peak moment of polyester filament in 2018, the decline is simply embarrassing.
The price has fallen, but it still cannot be sold. Recently, the production and sales of polyester filament have been maintained at around 40%. Weaving manufacturers have a wait-and-see mentality, and manufacturers’ preferential promotion methods have also failed, making it difficult to make breakthroughs in production and sales. As a result, polyester manufacturers fell into a state of difficulty in production and sales, and continued to accumulate inventory. At present, the average inventory of polyester factories has risen to around 26-36 days, and is showing an upward trend.
Polyester prices are largely guided by the news. Today, crude oil prices have reached the $40 mark, but it is still difficult to inject a boost into the polyester market. In addition to the weakening of downstream weaving demand, the most important thing is The reason is the lack of cost support for upstream PTA and ethylene glycol. The prices of PTA and ethylene glycol are already at a low level, but they are still facing production expectations in the later period. The overcapacity situation has intensified, and the probability of price decline is relatively high. For the polyester market, it has also intensified uncertainty.
Grey fabric: The price has dropped so much that there is no “underpants” left, and the inventory has reached a new high
Comparatively, this year’s market situation is probably worse than that of weaving companies.
It forced many companies to go bankrupt and close down. 2019 has been branded by textile people as “the worst year since starting the industry”, but some people say that it may be the best year in the next three years. Therefore, at the beginning of this year, the black swan of the epidemic has impacted the entire global industrial chain, and textile companies cannot be immune. In February, almost the entire textile market was at a standstill. In March, the market began to move, but it was just the orders from the previous year, and there were very few new orders. Especially for foreign trade orders, there were only news of cancellations and postponements.
In the post-epidemic era, the economy has begun to recover slowly, but when it comes to the real feedback to the textile market, demand has no obvious signs of recovery, especially the pressure on foreign trade exports is still very high. .
According to the latest statistics from the General Administration of Customs of China In May 2020, my country’s textile and clothing exports were US$29.554 billion, a month-on-month increase of 38.36%, of which clothing (including clothing and clothing accessories) exports were US$8.9057 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 26.93%. From January to May 2020, my country’s cumulative export volume of textiles and clothing was US$97.965 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 0.80%, of which the cumulative export volume of clothing was US$38.2131 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 22.80%.
In terms of weaving, the order situation is still not ideal, and difficulty in production and sales has become the market norm. At present, the operating rate of looms in Shengze is around 70%. After the Dragon Boat Festival, some manufacturers ended their holidays and the operating rate increased. However, according to interviews, since most companies are already weaving inventory, the operating rate of looms will further decline in the later period and become a major problem. Probabilistic events.
Continuously weaving cloth and failing to sell it, the most direct result is that the inventory of gray cloth continues to rise. According to the sample companies monitored by China Silk City Network, the current inventory of gray fabrics in Shengze has risen to 45 days.Recently, it hit a four-year high.
The price of gray fabrics is the final result of high inventory. Take conventional gray fabric as an example:
210T polyester taffeta is currently quoted at around 1.1 yuan/meter, while in 2018 it was around 1.65 yuan/meter, a decrease of 33.33%;
240T pongee is currently quoted at about 1.9 yuan/meter, while in 2018 it was around 2.6 yuan/meter, a decrease of 26.92%;
380T nylon yarn is currently quoted The quoted price is around 3.1 yuan/meter, while in 2018 it was around 4.9 yuan/meter, a decrease of 36.73%.
It can be seen that due to the high inventory and difficult demand for gray cloth As a result, the current price of gray fabrics has fallen to the bottom, and even losses occur when there is selling. The price is falling year by year, and it is very difficult to rise later.
Conclusion
Closely linked upstream and downstream of the textile industry chain , the view on the textile market outlook is almost unanimously negative. At present, both raw materials and gray fabrics have fallen to a bottom position. There is not much room for decline, but the motivation for rising is missing. Textile products cannot “increase prices at will” like pork. They can only work hard to earn every penny before losses come.
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