Recently, the external market has been unstable.
On the 7th, the US government officially submitted a notification to the United Nations that the United States will withdraw from the World Health Organization starting on July 6, 2021. According to “Capitol Hill” reports, a senior US government official confirmed on July 7, local time, that the White House has officially withdrawn the United States from the WHO. The official said the U.S. withdrawal was effective July 6 and had been notified to the U.N. secretary-general.
On July 6, local time, the Office of the United States Trade Representative announced the sixth batch of products excluded from additional tariffs with extended validity periods (products included in the 34 billion tariff exclusion list). The batch exclusion validity period was originally scheduled to expire on July 9, 2020. The notice decided to extend the exclusion period from July 9, 2020 to December 31, 2020. Starting from July 9, an additional 25% tariff will be imposed on some Chinese products!
Since the beginning of this year, due to the impact of the new crown epidemic, the domestic and foreign trade market conditions have suffered a continuous decline. Especially in foreign trade, the degree of recovery is far less than that of domestic trade. In March and April, foreign trade orders almost came to a standstill, with frequent cancellations and delays. In May, some European and American countries gradually opened up their economic activities, and foreign trade proofing began to increase in the market, but the actual number of orders placed was only a handful.
Recently, a large number of orders have been placed for a sajima fabric for making Arabic robes, with the quantity being about 500,000 to 600,000 meters. As a conventional fabric, Sajima fabric is suddenly selling well. Does it mean that foreign trade orders for conventional products have improved? Has the foreign trade market gradually begun to pick up?
After visiting the market, we found that there are reasons for the improvement of Sajima fabrics, but it is only an example and not universal. It does not mean that the foreign trade market is improving. The current foreign trade situation of most enterprises is still not ideal.
Trader Mr. Sun said: “This year’s foreign trade It seems that the market is difficult to recover. In the past, our company’s foreign trade accounted for 80%, but this year we did not receive a single foreign trade order, and all of them were domestic trade. The domestic trade market is also fiercely competitive, with many people and few orders, and we cannot receive orders. “
Mr. Han, who specializes in nylon spinning and owns 400 looms, also said frankly: “This year’s foreign trade orders are indeed not as satisfactory. There are very few export orders. The same period in previous years was much better. This is obvious from the dyeing factory. , Before May, 70%-80% of the orders for our dyeing factory were for the export of protective clothing. Now there are basically none, and even the export orders for conventional products are very few.”
The lack of foreign trade orders is still due to the serious lack of terminal demand. . From January to May 2020, my country’s cumulative export volume of textiles and clothing was US$97.965 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 0.80%. Among them, the cumulative export volume of textiles was US$59.7517 billion, a year-on-year increase of 21.30%; the cumulative export volume of clothing was US$38.2131 billion, a year-on-year decrease of 22.80%. %.
In July, the traditional textile off-season has arrived, and this year’s off-season may be weaker than any other off-season in previous years. In addition to the worrying prospects of the terminal clothing market, there are still other factors that are restricting the recovery of the foreign trade market.
Marine shipping has suffered a serious warehouse explosion, with container prices in the United States and India soaring by 20% and 475%!
Recently, many sellers have revealed that there is a serious shortage of goods shipped to the United States. Some sellers said that they have dumped containers for seven consecutive weeks since May, “dumping me once a week!”
Not to mention the poor timeliness, the cost of shipping containers is so much The sky skyrocketed. Most freight forwarders said that the average price of shipping containers from May to June was around US$2,500. Since July, the price of containers has risen to more than US$3,000, an increase of about 20%.
In addition, due to the continued escalation of border conflicts between China and India , the voice of boycotting “Made in China” in India is also becoming increasingly noisy: not only DHL and FedEx announced that they will suspend the acceptance of goods from China to India, but it is also revealed that the current sea freight from China to India has increased by about 475% month-on-month. It used to be about 20 US dollars per ton. Now it’s $115.
We all know that since this year, gray cloth, The fabric market has seen both volume and price fall, especially as it is common for weaving manufacturers to have inventories of millions of meters, making it difficult to balance production and sales, resulting in a serious drop in gray fabric prices. In terms of fabric prices, although there has been a certain degree of decline, the decline is not as much as that of gray fabrics. It can be said that there is still a profit margin for fabrics compared with gray fabrics this year, but it will not be huge. There is still a certain gap compared with previous years. At this time, the cost of shipping containers has skyrocketed, and the profit margins of fabrics will be greatly diluted or even lost. This will undoubtedly make the company worse, facing not only freight, but also liquidated damages arising from the goods not arriving on time.
The COVID-19 epidemic is still spreading, and many countries have suspended their economic restart plans
At the same time, the epidemic is still spreading around the world, especially in the United States, where the cumulative number of confirmed cases of COVID-19…The number of cases is close to 3 million, and the epidemic shows no signs of easing. According to data from Johns Hopkins University, in less than 24 hours (from 6:12 on July 7 to 5:33 on July 8), there were nearly 70,000 new confirmed cases in the United States, setting a new high in recent history. . Fauci, the White House’s chief adviser on the epidemic, admitted that the United States is still in the first wave of the epidemic and “the situation is not good.”
Some countries have resumed strict isolation policies, and the level of prevention and control has been raised accordingly. At least 23 states in the United States have announced the suspension of economic restart plans; the Chilean government has extended anti-epidemic quarantine measures for 63 cities and towns for one week; Iranian people must wear masks in public places starting from the 5th. In addition, the economic prospects of some countries are still unclear after restarting: Germany is facing the “worst recession” since the reunification of the two Germanys; months of city closure measures have made the Italian economy struggling.
The textile market has always been in a situation of “30% domestic trade and 70% foreign trade”. However, due to the impact of the epidemic, the global economic recovery has been slow and demand has been severely hit. Between eating well and wearing well, clothing updates have been Not an important choice at this stage. Therefore, when the foreign trade market can recover depends to a large extent on the trend of the epidemic in the second half of the year.
This is the worst of times and the best of times. Crisis and opportunity have always coexisted.
Judging from the current market situation, most textile people are still bearish on the market outlook, and it is difficult to predict the recovery of the foreign trade market. But looking at it from another perspective, if a group of people fall, a group of people will naturally stand up.
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