In 2020, falling prices seem to have become the main theme of the polyester filament market. On July 20, the price of polyester filament fell again!
The price of polyester yarn from Tongxiang No.1 factory is reduced by 100 yuan
The price of polyester yarn from Taicang No.1 factory remains stable, and the discount is extended by 100 yuan
Wujiang polyester factory No.1 The price of yarn has been reduced by 50-100 yuan
The price of some polyester yarns in a factory in Shengze has been reduced
……
The “Three Stages of Polyester Filament in 2020” ”
The price of polyester filament this year can mainly be It is divided into three stages:
The first stage: from the beginning of the year to mid-April, affected by the continuous fermentation of the epidemic, international oil prices dived from high levels, and polyester The price of filament yarn has plummeted. In just a few months, the average price of various specifications of polyester yarn has dropped by about 3,000 yuan/ton. Around April 20, it was basically the lowest point of this round of decline, which was also the price of polyester yarn. lowest point in recent years.
The second stage: from late April to mid-June, as the downstream gradually resumes work and production, the market demand for polyester yarn increases. With the international Driven by the rebound in oil prices, the price of polyester filament has rebounded in shock, with the overall rebound range being around 1,000 yuan/ton in two months.
The trouble of inventory has reduced the operating rate of looms, and the demand for polyester filament has further decreased. Affected by this, the price of polyester filament has begun to fluctuate and fall, with an average decline of more than 700 yuan/ton.
In the past two weeks, polyester factories have been affected by Affected by the news of production cuts, polyester filament yarns have been stable for a certain period of time, and polyester filament prices even rose to a certain extent last week. However, because the intensity of production cuts did not meet market expectations, the rising trend was quickly suppressed, and the falling market reappeared. Therefore, it can be basically judged that the current polyester filament will still be in the third stage of decline.
Obviously the inventory is high, but the production capacity is increasing
“Breaking through the Sky” inventory
According to China Silk Duwang data monitoring shows that the overall inventory of the polyester market is now concentrated at 29-39 days; in terms of specific products, POY inventory is at 9-15 days, FDY inventory is at around 20-27 days, and DTY inventory is at 29-39 days About days.
Today’s polyester inventory is infinitely close to the year’s highest point of polyester inventory in mid-April, and it is also the highest point of polyester filament inventory in recent years.
Faced with inventories that will “break through the sky” again, the current answers given by polyester companies are still relatively small production cuts and “price reduction promotions”. conventional means.
Accompanied by high inventories are low profits for polyester yarns. After mid-June, as the price of polyester filament continued to fall, the profit of polyester filament also began to plummet. Especially after July, the profit of polyester filament returned to a loss predicament from the original profit state.
The polyester giant’s production plan remains unchanged
More importantly, 2020 is a year of rapid growth in polyester filament production capacity. The start-up of the polyester device requires several years of preliminary construction and preparation. However, once the device is completed, the start-up is “on the line” and has to be hair”.
What’s more important is that for major polyester manufacturers that have the ability to expand production capacity, they don’t even care about short-term losses.
In addition, some major manufacturers have already made a lot of money due to the cheap oil prices in the first half of the year because they have opened up the entire industrial chain. For example, the recent financial report issued by Rongsheng Petrochemical shows that in the first half of 2020, its net profit increased by 196%-221% year-on-year, while the net profit of Hengyi Petrochemical, another leading polyester company, also increased by 82% in the first quarter. The last time we saw Such an exaggerated profit increase occurred in 2018 when PTA prices exploded.
Therefore, there is a high probability that the expected polyester production capacity in the second half of the year will still be launched as scheduled, bringing new pressure to the polyester market.
The gray cloth market has “price but no market” ”
For weaving companies, polyester prices actually have little impact. Not saying anything at the momentFor high-end products that are produced by relatively few people, it has become a common phenomenon in the conventional gray fabric market such as pongee, polyester taffeta, and imitation silk that they are priced but not available.
Weaving companies can only receive some orders sporadically, and production and sales are simply uneven. Once a large amount of cloth is produced, it is destined to become inventory.
Because there is no repayment, there is only money going out but no money coming in. Some weaving companies have problems with their capital chains. At this time, if they want to sell cloth, they can only lose money.” “Sell goods, dump goods”, but even so, it may not be able to sell.
It can be said that the price of cloth is now cheap enough. As long as weaving companies can maintain their capital, or even say not to lose too much money, in order to reduce inventory, they will basically Is willing to sell. However, if the epidemic is not controlled and terminal demand does not increase, there is still no way.
Whether the “floor price” will be break in?
In early April, the price of polyester yarn dropped to the lowest point in recent years. Some weaving companies chose to stock up. Of course, these stockpiles have arrived. It is basically used now, and weaving companies have basically stocked up on this part. However, in addition to weaving companies, there are also some traders who have also stocked up a lot of raw materials in the market. The price of polyester filament is now close to the lowest point of the year. If the price of polyester continues to fall, it is very likely to fall below the lowest price in April. How will these traders choose by then? Will new companies choose to stock up? This should be an issue that the market will pay more attention to next.
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