On August 5, the price of polyester filament ushered in a long-awaited general rise, with the average increase of each product reaching 50-100 yuan/ton. Here Previously, polyester filament prices had experienced a week of sustained slight increases.
On August 6, polyester filament continued to rise steadily, and the quotations of polyester filament from some polyester factories rose again.
Spurred by the rise in polyester prices, The production and sales of polyester factories have also picked up. On August 5, a rare production and sales even exceeded 100.
Polyester prices have appeared since last week The overall increase is not large, basically around 100-200 yuan/ton. What is the logic of this round of rising polyester filament yarns? What are the positive supports for upstream and downstream? Can this upward trend continue?
In terms of upstream, oil price is indeed a more important factor reason.
On Wednesday (August 5), international oil prices hit a new high in the past two weeks, continuing the upward trend of the previous three trading days. As of the close of the day, the price of light crude oil futures for September delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange rose by 0.49 US dollars to close at 42.19 US dollars per barrel, an increase of 1.18%. The price of London Brent crude oil futures for delivery in October rose by 0.74 US dollars to close at 45.17 US dollars per barrel, an increase of 1.67%.
From the perspective of institutional analysis, the main logic behind this round of rising oil prices is the sharp decrease in U.S. crude oil inventories. Low inventories are indeed a very good support for rising prices. But on the one hand, this is the result of a significant production cut by U.S. oil companies, but on the other hand, there has been news that Saudi Arabia has increased production, and the rise in oil prices may become unsustainable.
Driven by oil prices, PTA prices have also stabilized This week, PTA futures experienced a “three consecutive positives” phenomenon. As of 15:00 on August 6, the closing price of the main 2009 contract of PTA futures was 3634 points, an increase of 28 points or 0.78% from the previous trading day.
However, on August 3, Hengli’s new 2.5 million-ton PTA plant was successfully put into operation. Under the pressure of high inventory, the oversupply of PTA has become increasingly obvious, which may suppress PTA prices in the future.
Therefore, although there is support upstream, this support may not last too long.
On the downstream side, in the past two weeks, the market has Some products have indeed begun to sell out.
According to a salesperson at a dyeing factory with hundreds of dye vats, the daily incoming volume of gray fabrics has increased from 300,000 meters per day to 600,000 meters per day. / day, and the current delivery time of the dyeing factory has also increased by 2-3 days compared with last month.
In addition, a considerable number of textile companies have expressed that in the near future The order-taking situation has improved compared with July.
It is understood that the orders received in the market now are generally based on autumn and winter fabrics, basically to stock up in advance for this year’s autumn and winter. From the perspective of stocking time, the market started slightly earlier this year than in previous years, perhaps because both the price of gray fabrics and the cost of post-printing and dyeing finishing are relatively cheap at this stage.
Driven by the shipment of some fabrics in the market, the operating rate of looms has been slightly adjusted recently, basically reaching the same level as last year. This has also changed from the recent The production and sales of polyester can be seen. In June, polyester production and sales were hovering around 40%, but since late July, the overall production and sales in the market have become about 60%.
However, we also have to see that the market has recently Although the number of goods sold has increased, it only affects a few products such as T8, washed velvet, and imitation memory. Products such as pongee, polyester taffeta, and imitation silk that occupy the majority of the market have been affected due to the large amount of inventory accumulated in the early stage. The actual volume of shipments is not ideal.
Therefore, from both upstream and downstream perspectives, there are not many positive factors for the price increase of polyester filament at this stage, and these positive factors are unsustainable. Special��. Therefore, the editor interprets this rise more as a normal correction of polyester raw material prices that have been too low for a long time. The price may continue to rise slowly in the future, but in the absence of other positive stimulation, a sharp rise is unlikely.
What are the next ingredients?
The first is of course the epidemic. According to the most optimistic estimates, the earliest time the new coronavirus epidemic was brought under control internationally was in the fourth quarter of this year, which is only more than a month ago. Of course, judging from the current situation, confirmed cases around the world are still growing rapidly, and there are no signs of being brought under control yet.
However, no one can predict the changes in the epidemic. In the future, the epidemic situation in some overseas countries and regions may be controlled first, and it is still unclear whether some markets will be the first to recover.
The other is the rapidly changing international relations. Since Trump came to power in 2016, he has been “making trouble” non-stop. After the outbreak of the epidemic in 2020, due to a series of “smart extermination” operations, the number of infections in the United States is the highest in the world, and Trump also has the highest number of infections in the world for this reason. Support ratings plummeted. In order to be re-elected, he started to operate more crazily than before. Recently, the international version of TikTok has caused a stir. After Pompeo tasted the sweetness, he threatened to remove more Chinese applications. Will this turmoil affect the textile industry? Foreign trade is also still unknown.
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