Recently, there has been news of an improvement in the textile market: one moment, “star fabrics” such as T8, which are in short supply, appear, and another moment, imitation memory, four-way elastic The situation of receiving orders for such fabrics improved, and soon there was news that the operating rate of dyeing plants suddenly increased…
Driving by the good news about the downstream weaving market Next, polyester filament yarn prices also experienced a sustained rise.
From the day when work resumed in March this year Almost half a year has passed since the wavelet market, and the market has not been better during this period. The number of orders received is less than one-third of previous years, and foreign orders have been almost “annihilated.” Now that more than half a year has passed, the market should have improved. ——Trader Manager Yang
Manager Yang’s ideas do represent some textile people. The recent market situation has given them hope, and they feel that after half a year of downturn, they , the market will continue to improve in the future, and the “Golden Nine and Silver Ten” may be expected. Can the facts come true?
Textile people hit the “time gap” ”
It is understood that recent orders, whether for domestic trade or export, are mostly based on autumn and winter fabrics. As we all know, September and October are the traditional peak seasons for the textile market, while June, July and August are the traditional off-seasons.
What happened this year is that as soon as August entered, orders in the market began to move. Faced with this situation, in addition to the above-mentioned idea that the market has turned around, some textile people have another view.
This group of textile people believe that the current short-term recovery is equivalent to overdrafting the future market. Because the prices of raw materials, gray fabrics and dyeing fees are now at historically low levels, as long as the market improves slightly in the future, price increases are almost certain. Therefore, a large number of textile workers choose to advance the stocking time and create a “time difference” in order to reduce production costs.
Inventory is the biggest obstacle to market recovery
However, the biggest factor affecting the improvement of the market and the increase in the price of gray fabrics is inventory. In this wave of market conditions, we have hardly seen the most commonly used pongee, polyester taffeta, and imitation silk in the market. Is there no demand? No, it’s just that the inventory on the market in the early stage is too large.
With a large amount of inventory, it is difficult for prices to rise. Spot goods can be purchased on the market at any time, so there is no need to go to weaving companies to place orders.
After understanding, we also found that although some products did set off a temporary craze, most weaving companies still have uneven production and sales. Under the pressure of high inventory, It is still not uncommon for production to be reduced or even stopped.
Production and sales of polyester factories in the past two weeks Inventory changes also corroborate these changes. While polyester filament prices continue to rise, production and sales have not shown a very significant improvement.
Affected by this, polyester factories have Silk stocks are still growing slowly. Judging from the statistics of China Silk City Network, the overall inventory of the polyester market is now concentrated at 33-39 days; in terms of specific products, POY inventory is around 11-17 days, FDY inventory is around 22-31 days, and DTY inventory is around 22-31 days. to about 30-39 days.
In addition, the editor also learned that during the epidemic During this period, many weaving companies opened their own fabric spot supermarkets, which digested a large wave of inventory in the market, but at the same time, it also reduced part of future demand.
So we can conclude that the current short-term improvement in the market is actually partially overdrawing the future market, but due to the epidemic, everyone has become cautious. , so the amount of advance stocking is not large, so there are still big variables in the future market.
Factors affecting future market changes
Recovery speed of foreign trade market
From April to July, textile and apparel exports achieved growth for four consecutive months. As the global epidemic gradually eases and the demand for anti-epidemic materials declines, the growth rate of textile exports in July slowed down compared with the previous period. The purchase demand for clothing in major markets has rebounded, and clothing exports have improved, with the decline significantly narrowing compared with the previous period.
Specifically, the recovery in the Middle East and ASEAN countries is more obvious. Japanese and Korean countries have been performing better, while orders in European and American countries have been relatively slow to pick up due to epidemic control reasons. Some. Which direction the market will develop in the future mainly depends on the recovery speed of the foreign trade market.
Can the global epidemic be controlled
As of 15:00 on August 13, Beijing time, the cumulative number of confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia worldwide has exceeded 20.72 million, and the number of newly confirmed cases the previous day exceeded 260,000.
Under such circumstances, foreign countries choose to stop production Or whether to resume work is an uncertain question. Moreover, whether production is suspended or resumed, economic growth will inevitably be affected and residents’ income will decline. When residents’ incomes decline, buying two fewer pieces of clothing to reduce expenses becomes a reasonable choice.
Vaccines may be the “final word”
Judging from the current performance of various countries, relying on foreign countries The expectation that the epidemic will be controlled by oneself and the economy will eventually return to normal seems unrealistic. But the good news is that there is good news about the development of vaccines. Russian President Vladimir Putin announced on the 11th local time that the world’s first new coronavirus vaccine had been registered.
Countries such as China, the United States, and the United Kingdom are not slow in developing vaccines. If a truly effective vaccine can be successfully developed, market confidence will quickly recover, and this goal is not far away now.
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