Some time ago, polyester filament prices have been in a moderate rising mode, but in the past two days, they have begun to slowly fall again. As of now, the price of polyester filament FDY products is around 5,750 yuan/ton, the price of POY products is around 5,255 yuan/ton, and the price of DTY products is around 6,700 yuan/ton.
At the same time, polyester profits, which had improved, have also begun to As a result, the profits and losses of each product expanded further. As of the 18th, the profit loss of polyester filament FDY products has reached 150 yuan/ton, POY has lost 245 yuan/ton, and DTY has lost 500 yuan/ton.
However, from the boot rate On the other hand, the recent operating rate of polyester manufacturers is still at a high level, maintained at around 91.3%, while the operating rate of weaving companies is only around 64%. When comparing the operating rates of upstream and downstream, contradictions appear.
For polyester manufacturers, downstream weaving companies are the most direct way to digest their inventories, but the market of weaving manufacturers still has not improved significantly, and gray fabrics The inventory is too high, causing the operating rate to further decline, and the demand for polyester yarn has not substantially improved. At the same time, the inventory of polyester manufacturers is not at a low level, but has begun to enter the accumulation stage.
However, polyester manufacturers still maintain a high operating rate despite high inventory, low prices, negative profits, and low demand. Why?
The arrow is on the string, and polyester faucet production capacity is concentrated
We all know that production capacity deployment plans generally take several years to plan. Even if there is an epidemic this year, production capacity deployment is already on the line and has to be launched, which will undoubtedly increase the start-up rate of polyester manufacturers. In the first half of the year alone, 5 new direct-spinning polyester filament devices were put into production in China, with a total production capacity of 1.15 million tons/year. Compared with 550,000 tons/year in the same period last year, the production progress was significantly accelerated; and from the perspective of the group to which the production equipment belongs , the equipment put into production in the first half of the year all belong to the mainstream domestic manufacturers. Hengyi, Xinfengming, Hengli, and Shenghong have successively put into production, continuing to expand the production capacity concentration of the direct spinning polyester filament industry.
In the second half of the year, the domestic direct-spinning polyester filament industry still has 7 sets of new equipment planned to be put into production, all of which are the expansion of production capacity of mainstream manufacturers, with a total production capacity of about 240 10,000 tons/year. Under optimistic expectations, it is expected that by the end of 2020, domestic direct spinning polyester filament production capacity will exceed 34 million tons/year. An increase of more than 10% compared with the end of 2019. Even if the polyester equipment undergoes maintenance, the intensity is far less than the production capacity.
Using low-priced crude oil, the cost of polyester yarn has dropped
Recently, some media said that at least 80 ships have been waiting in line at Yingkou, Rizhao, Qingdao and other ports for more than a month. As the world’s largest crude oil consumer, China has purchased a large amount of crude oil this year, so much so that oil tankers are blocked at the port and queues are waiting to be unloaded. ! Analysts and port managers say the congestion could last until the end of the month. The reason for this phenomenon is that domestic refiners and oil-related companies purchased cheap oil in April and May, and the arrival of crude oil was delayed due to the epidemic.
Then we might as well think that polyester An important reason why manufacturers maintain high operating conditions is that the crude oil used in the current production of polyester filament yarns is the cheap crude oil purchased before, so the cost of polyester yarns has dropped. Even though polyester yarns are currently in a loss-making situation, according to the cheap crude oil Based on price calculation, the profit from polyester yarn may not be so much lost, and may even still be profitable. This has also caused polyester manufacturers to still choose to start operations at a high rate despite many negative factors. After all, the cost is too low.
The launch of the new crown vaccine has further accelerated, and the polyester boss is optimistic about the market outlook
Recently, there has been more and more news about the new coronavirus vaccine.
On the 11th, the Russian Ministry of Health stated that Russia has registered the world’s first vaccine to prevent the new coronavirus, “SputnikV”. Its clinical trials were successfully completed from June to July this year. On August 15, the Russian Ministry of Health announced that it had begun vaccine production.
Sinopharm Group Chairman Liu Jingzhen said that the domestically produced COVID-19 inactivated vaccine is expected to be launched at the end of December, with annual output expected to exceed 200 million doses.
In addition, the new crown vaccine patent application jointly filed by the team of Academician Chen Wei of the Academy of Military Medical Sciences and CanSino Biologics has been granted patent rights. It is my country’s first new coronavirus vaccine patent.
No matter this yearWhether it is polyester, weaving, or clothing companies, the biggest driver of the serious market decline is the outbreak of the new coronavirus epidemic, which has led to serious losses in both domestic and foreign trade. When the domestic epidemic is under control, the foreign epidemic is still spreading, and the global economy is in decline. Consumption levels are low. Now that the vaccine is expected to be launched, it will boost market confidence. Once it is launched and residents are vaccinated, global economic production will gradually resume, consumption power will increase, and the demand for textile and clothing products will increase. This will feed back to polyester yarn, destocking, Price increases and profits are expected to be realized.
Furthermore, the current polyester market production capacity is highly concentrated, and the right to speak is concentrated in the hands of leading companies such as Hengli, Xinfengming, Tongkun, and Shenghong. Here, the polyester boss is optimistic about the market outlook, and the operating rate will naturally be difficult to decline.
If we look at the market outlook from the perspective of the polyester market’s operating rate, it seems to be promising. However, there are still many negative factors, especially the imbalance between supply and demand, which is difficult to change in a short period of time. The next trend of the polyester market still depends on the epidemic situation, changes in demand, and consideration of various factors.
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