In the past two days, Sino-US relations have made headlines again!
According to reports from British Reuters, American Bloomberg and other media, Trump on August 18 He said he was the one who canceled trade talks with China last weekend.
Trump said in Yuma, Arizona: “I canceled the meeting with China. I don’t want to talk to China now.” When asked if he would When it comes to withdrawing from a trade deal with China, Trump said he would consider, “We’ll see what happens.”
On the 20th, at the regular online press conference held by the Ministry of Commerce on the 20th, Ministry of Commerce spokesperson Gao Feng said that the two sides have agreed to hold a phone call in the near future!
As soon as the news came out, the circle of friends exploded again: “What does this mean?”, “It’s too difficult to figure out over and over again”, “It’s fatal”, “Foreign trade business is even more difficult to do”…
During the visit, “uncertainty in Sino-US trade” became the Many textile people feel pain, and because of this, most textile people are not optimistic about the market in September and October! “Actually, many textiles in our market are ultimately exported to European and American customers. Now that Sino-US relations are like this, it is difficult for foreign trade business to get better. There are still so many on the market, and the pressure is great!” said Mr. Shen, a trader.
U.S. orders have decreased, but the foreign trade market is slowly recovering
Previously, Trump said that the Sino-US economic and trade negotiations were canceled, which was originally scheduled for August. On March 15, the negotiation to determine the status of the first phase of contract performance was held.
At first glance, this is indeed bad news, but after more than two years of trade friction, Sino-US trade volume has fallen to third place, and is now China’s largest trading partner It is the Association of Southeast Asia, followed by the European Union. It can be said that many textile bosses have become accustomed to this repeated news.
In recent years, the share of my country’s textiles and apparel in traditional export markets such as Europe, the United States, and Japan It is being filled by competitors such as ASEAN, India and Bangladesh, and the share of orders from the United States is still decreasing.
A clothing factory manager also said that there are too few orders from the United States this year and the loss of workers is worse than in previous years. The current tension between China and the United States has also made it difficult to place follow-up orders. We can only wait for the U.S. election in November to see if there is new hope.
Another clothing factory in Shenzhen also had a backlog of clothes in a warehouse this year because European and American customers canceled orders. The boss said that he lost all the money he made in previous years.
As an intermediate link in the textile and apparel industry, fabrics are deeply affected by the prosperity of the downstream apparel industry. . After all, my country’s overseas trade in textiles and clothing accounts for about 50% of the total. Nowadays, the international epidemic situation is relatively severe, and there are great uncertainties in the future development of Sino-US trade. Therefore, textile companies are still facing greater operating pressure.
However, in August, some trading companies reported that the order-taking situation had improved, and the frequency of buyers placing orders increased. The orders placed are mainly for autumn and winter fabrics. Due to the seasonal demand for autumn and winter fabrics, export orders have increased in some regions. “At present, the foreign trade market is also beginning to improve after gradually adapting to changes in the international situation. Recently, I heard from friends that batch orders will be placed in countries such as South America and Brazil. However, due to the poor sustainability of orders, I feel that the market comes and goes in a hurry. It’s easy to be digested by the market!” said Mr. Xu, a textile factory owner.
The existing inventory will not be exhausted until next year!
“How many new clothes have you bought this year?” During the epidemic, many well-known clothing brands have been in trouble.
The well-known underwear brand Victoria’s Secret UK entered bankruptcy liquidation, Brooks Brothers, the oldest clothing brand in the United States, filed for bankruptcy, and fast fashion giants such as H&M, Zara, and GAP ushered in store closures. Textile giant Weiqiao Textile recently released an interim results announcement stating that the company’s cotton yarn, gray fabric, and denim sales revenue fell by 29.2%, 24.5%, and 49.7% respectively to 1.395 billion yuan, 1.991 billion yuan, and 206 million yuan, and the market value shrank by nearly 76%.
Faced with such a market environment, life as a fabric merchant in the upper reaches of clothing is not easy. In fact, most textile bosses don’t think well of this year’s “Golden Nine and Silver Ten”. The main reason isYes – excessive social inventory.
A weaving factory owner joked: “Nowadays, if you ask around outside, if someone says they only have a few months’ inventory, that’s pretty good. Most factories have There is a lot of inventory in it.”
According to the monitoring data of sample enterprises of China Silk City Network, the market inventory of gray fabrics has once again entered the accumulation stage after a slight decline at the end of July. Although due to recent The market has gradually improved, slowing down the increase in corporate inventories. However, industry inventories still remain at a high of 45-46 days, and judging from the current transaction situation, it is difficult for gray fabric inventories to enter a downward turning point in the short term.
“This year’s market feeling It’s hard to get better. Everyone’s inventories are too big. I’m not pessimistic, but I think these inventories will have to wait until next year to be consumed.” Mr. Chen, who has been in the textile gray fabric business for more than 10 years, said, “Recently, the factory has Production and sales are almost at 80%, and we are still in the inventory stage.”
It is currently August In the second half of the year, as usual, the market has also begun to enter the period of alternating between low and peak seasons. At this time, the market polarization will be more obvious. Marketable products are more actively sampled and sold, while unsalable varieties are still “no one cares about”. In addition, this year’s market is booming. Due to the environment, it is also difficult for the market to break out in September.
Of course, some bosses still have some expectations for the market in September. On the one hand, the market has been suppressed for a long time, and there is still a strong demand for autumn and winter fabrics from garment factories and traders. Just as A textile boss who makes brand clothing fabrics said: This year, only 50% of the orders for all brands have been placed, and the remaining 50% will be placed as quick response or e-commerce models, so there may be another small peak next month!
Today, the textile industry is standing at a crossroads. Whether the market will continue to improve or stagnate cannot be predicted. After all, the overseas epidemic has not been effectively controlled, and Sino-US trade is too big. There are variables, but no matter what the market situation is in September, I believe that most textile bosses will still choose to “suffer”. Only by living can there be hope for improvement!
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