Looking at textile people’s Moments recently, I found that they were flooded with information about price increases.
Sometimes the price of dyes starts to increase, sometimes the dyeing fees increase, sometimes the price of cotton increases, and sometimes the price of gray fabrics increases… in short It gives people the illusion that everything is increasing in price.
Indeed, according to experience, September is here, demand Now, the market is about to get better. Textile companies have indeed received orders for some fabrics, especially fabrics such as T8, cool silk cotton, cupro, imitation memory, and nylon. News of orders received frequently comes, including even There are many large orders worth millions of meters. But has the market really improved?
Crude oil and polyester yarn prices fell
International oil prices fell
International oil prices fell significantly last week (August 31 to September 4). Oil prices in the New York market experienced the largest weekly decline since June, and also fell. Breaking the psychological barrier of $40. Market participants pointed out that $40 is a major psychological level, falling below this price and the fact that it is about to enter the off-season, and creates conditions where “it is impossible to be bullish on oil prices.”
Crude oil, as the most raw material for polyester products, will affect the price of polyester filament to a certain extent. The decline in crude oil prices in March and April and the rebound in crude oil prices in May It is also basically consistent with the price curve of polyester filament.
Once international oil prices start to fall again, the polyester rebound will lack an important driving force from fundamentals.
Polyester filament is warm
Compared with the recent rising prices of raw materials such as cotton, nylon, and spandex, the performance of polyester filament can only be described as lukewarm:
Usually the market is very poor, and then the inventory is high. Promotions started immediately, driving a wave of production and sales. However, the symptoms were treated but not the root cause, and production and sales quickly fell back after the promotions were over.
This situation is reflected in the price of polyester filament. In the past two weeks, the price of polyester filament has been mainly falling.
Polyester is the chemical fiber with the largest output, accounting for more than 80% of the production capacity, and chemical fiber accounts for more than 70% of the total fiber proportion. From this, it can be deduced that polyester accounts for more than The amount of fiber that makes up “half the country” overall.
If the situation of polyester filament does not improve, it is impossible to talk about an improvement in the textile market.
It’s not that it doesn’t rise, but that it can’t rise
This year during the epidemic After the incident, the price of polyester filament fell to the bottom, and profits plummeted. Since then, polyester factories have never calmed down in their desire to increase the price of polyester filament.
However, every time there is news from polyester factories that they will raise prices, or after polyester filament has been rising for a period of time, the price will usually drop again within a week or two. The biggest reason why it cannot rise is inventory.
In terms of polyester inventory, according to the statistics of China Silk Capital Network, the overall inventory of the polyester market is now concentrated at 33-44 days; in terms of specific products, POY inventory reaches 11-18 days, FDY inventory is around 22-35 days, while DTY inventory is around 30-44 days.
In terms of gray cloth inventory, the current average inventory of gray cloth in Jiangsu and Zhejiang exceeds 40 days, which has suffered Enormous pressure.
Under the pressure of such high inventory, polyester factories must consider this when adjusting prices “Sustainably selling silk” cannot be like the previous “I raise the price, you can do whatever you want”.
For textile companies, cloth is not easy to sell in the first place. If the price of polyester yarn rises to a certain level and the calculated cost exceeds the suspension of production, then it is really “stopping production”. Just stop”.
The market recovery is a “protracted battle”
The editor recently I heard news that the current improvement in the market for certain products is not entirely due to increased demand. There are also some traders hoarding goods. Since the inventory of conventional products is high and the production capacity is large, it takes time to digest them. Therefore, most of them focus on some products with relatively small inventory in the market.
Everyone knows that products with low inventory are easier to sell, but the reason why conventional products are conventional is because they consume a lot and have wide applicability. As long as they do not recover, It cannot be said that the market has really picked up.
The editor judges that the recovery of the textile market in the future may show a “point-to-point” situation: when the new crown epidemic is controlled and overseas demand recovers, some distinctive and technologically advanced products will High, inventory�� products will recover quickly, thus attracting a large number of weaving factories to shift production capacity to them; while some conventional products with huge inventories will be in a stage of slow inventory reduction for a long period of time.
By then, the price of raw materials will inevitably rise, but due to the pressure of inventory, the rate of increase in raw materials may be suppressed, which will be detrimental to some weaving companies with meager profits and in the destocking stage. It is an unbearable burden, and it is a major benefit to some companies with the technology to produce mid-to-high-end products. This will also further accelerate the two-level differentiation of the textile market and promote further reshuffle of the industry.
Of course, the above are all the editor’s guesses. It will take time to prove what the final result will be.
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