On the evening of September 8th, Beijing time, the decline of WTI crude oil once expanded to 8%, a new low since June; Brent oil and New York crude oil futures all fell. fell, and the main domestic crude oil futures contract fell by the limit. As of the close, the crude oil futures 2010 contract of the Shanghai Futures Exchange closed down 8.02% in night trading at 251.00 yuan/barrel. WTI October crude oil futures closed down $3.01, or 7.57%, at $36.76 per barrel.
Under the negative effects of the plunge in crude oil, the polyester raw material market also fell across the board on the 9th.
As of the close, the main 2010 contract of ethylene glycol futures closed at 3,984 yuan/ton, which was lower than the settlement price on the previous trading day. 65 yuan/ton, a decrease of 1.61%.
PTA Futures The main 2010 contract closed at 3,636 yuan/ton, a decrease of 102 yuan/ton or 2.73% compared with the settlement price on the previous trading day.
Crude oil, as the source product of bulk commodities, once it plummets or drops to the limit, it will inevitably be negative for chemical products. This time due to PTA The price of ethylene glycol futures itself is at a low level, so the decline is not as large as before, and the room for further decline is relatively small.
After experiencing a mild rise in the early stage, polyester filament has recently begun to enter price reduction mode. The decline in crude oil and polyester raw materials has contributed to the continued decline of polyester yarn, which has been falling in recent days. According to normal logic, we have officially entered the “Golden Nine”. Even if the price of polyester yarn does not rise, it should be more stable. However, due to the impact of the epidemic this year, the price of polyester yarn has been difficult to rise. Even if there is a slight increase, the price of polyester yarn will remain stable. It is difficult to achieve sustainability and motivation.
In the upstream and downstream “joint attack” “Under the situation, it still seems difficult to increase the price of polyester silk during the “Golden Nine”.
The inventory of polyester raw materials is high, making it difficult to form effective support
The price of polyester raw materials has effective cost support for the price of polyester filament, but at present, the prices of both PTA and ethylene glycol continue to be low. In addition to the impact of the falling crude oil market, the inventories of the two are even more flawed.
Up to now, PTA social inventory has been at a historical high, reaching around 2.86 million tons, while ethylene glycol is relatively better, and the recent inventory growth rate has been slow. , but it is still at a high level, with inventories at the main ports in East China rising to around 1.42 million tons. It is difficult for polyester raw material inventories to reach an inflection point, which has severely suppressed their prices.
The inventory of polyester yarn itself is high, and it is difficult to maintain stable production and sales
Always Since then, the production and sales of polyester filaments have been difficult to maintain. Occasionally, large discounts and promotions from polyester manufacturers can trigger a wave of buying enthusiasm from weaving manufacturers, but the sustainability is short-lived. After all, in this year’s market, weaving manufacturers are under great financial pressure and are not interested in purchasing polyester filaments. Be more cautious. In recent times, polyester production and sales have mostly remained around 60%. However, because polyester manufacturers still maintain an operating rate of nearly 92%, inventories have been rising.
From the statistics of China Silk City Network, the overall inventory of the polyester market is now concentrated at 33-44 days; in terms of specific products, POY inventory is up to 11 -18 days, FDY inventory is around 22-35 days, while DTY inventory is around 30-44 days.
The recovery of the foreign trade market is hindered, and weaving Enterprise inventories are still at high levels
On the 7th, the General Administration of Customs released data. From January to August 2020, the cumulative exports of textiles and clothing were US$187.407 billion. An increase of 8.11% (the national export of goods trade decreased by 2.3%), of which textile exports were US$104.798 billion, an increase of 33.43%, and the export volume reached the highest level in the same period in history; clothing exports were US$82.609 billion, a decrease of 12.86%, and the export volume was the highest in the same period in the past ten years. lowest level.
Textile exports have grown, largely because masks and other anti-epidemic materials are still the main driver of exports. Looking at the breakdown, the fabric and clothing markets have improved. Still not obvious. Trader Mr. Shi said: “At present, our company’s foreign trade market has not recovered. This year we mainly focus on domestic sales, and the order volume has decreased by at least 2/3 compared with the same period in previous years. Foreign trade orders have not been moved, and there are only a few in the market.” Partial productThe delivery of goods from �’s supplier is slightly better, but overall it is still not good. ”
Judging from the cancellation of autumn orders and frequent bankruptcies of most well-known brand clothing companies this year, life is not easy for brand companies, let alone other small and medium-sized enterprises. Clothing companies. Currently, the demand for fabrics by clothing companies is very limited, especially autumn clothing, which can be replaced by spring clothing. Under the situation of high financial pressure, clothing companies mostly focus on digesting inventory. Therefore, clothing companies have little demand for gray fabrics. , fabrics have decreased, and it is difficult for weaving enterprises to reduce their inventories. At present, the inventory of gray fabrics in Shengze area remains around 45 days, making it difficult to destock.
From the perspective of crude oil, polyester raw materials, and downstream demand, the room for price increases of polyester filament has been restrained. This year’s polyester yarn appears to be more fragile. The serious reduction in downstream demand alone has made it breathless. Now the upstream has given it another blow. Although the price reduction is not large, it also confirms from the side that the current polyester price is already at a leading level, and there is no more. There is room for decline.
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