In September, the textile market began to loosen up. Some gray fabrics and fabrics were sold well, and the delivery time of some products began to be extended. The market seemed to be Signs of market warming have resumed.
During the traditional “Golden Nine” period, weaving manufacturers began to gradually resume production and increase production capacity. Manufacturers that had previously been on holiday or taking turns also began to slowly resume normal production. , the recruitment phenomenon in the market is also gradually increasing. Weaving manufacturers have become more motivated to produce. So far, according to sample companies tested by China Silk City Network, the loom operating rate in Shengze has risen to around 70%.
At the same time, the upstream industry chain is also the same Start production at full capacity, hoping to take advantage of the trend to increase losses at any time when the market is good. In terms of polyester filament, according to statistics, the current average operating rate of polyester manufacturers is around 92.1%, of which the operating rate of polyester filament is around 81.6%, which is significantly higher than the previous period;
In terms of polyester raw materials, due to the frequent maintenance of PTA equipment in the recent stage, the average operating rate of PTA is higher than that in the previous period. It has dropped to about 76.6%, but is still at a relatively high level; the average operating rate of MEG is about 62%, which has been significantly improved compared with the previous period.
Polyester raw materials, polyester yarn, and weaving manufacturers have begun to continuously increase their operating rates. On the one hand, it is due to practical reasons. Due to the impact of the epidemic, all walks of life have been short of funds in the first half of this year. The market was sluggish and even suffered heavy losses. Whether it was polyester raw materials, polyester filaments or gray fabrics, they had no choice but to lower their operating rates in the first half of the year to control production capacity and ease financial pressure. However, it has now entered September. If productivity is not improved, then It is difficult to take the opportunity to improve this year.
On the other hand, there are psychological expectations. Due to the sharp drop in terminal demand in the first half of the year, weaving orders were not received, and feedback was fed back to the upstream. It was difficult to balance production and sales. Now the weaving market is showing signs of improvement, and the domestic epidemic is well controlled. , some foreign trade orders have been placed, so all links have expectations for the later market conditions.
Indeed, after experiencing an epidemic, the economic structure has changed and the end consumption demand model has also changed, but the basic rigid needs still exist. In the words of a cloth boss, “The first half of the year has been miserable. Now that all countries have experience and skills in epidemic prevention and control, no matter how bad the market is in the second half of the year, it will always be better than the first half.” Therefore, it is understandable that in this period During this period, each link begins to gradually increase the load.
However, while stepping up production, negative factors from all parties must also be considered.
Industry inventory
Whether it is textile No matter which part of the industry, there will be no shortage of inventory this year. In terms of weaving, sample companies monitored by China Silk City Network show that the current inventory of gray fabrics in Shengze is around 45 days. Although it has dropped slightly from the previous period, it is still at a high level.
In terms of polyester, according to the statistics of China Silk Capital Network, the overall inventory of the polyester market is now concentrated in 34-44 days; in terms of specific products, among them POY inventory lasts until 12-18 days, FDY inventory lasts around 23-35 days, and DTY inventory lasts around 31-44 days.
In terms of polyester raw materials, nowadays, PTA social tradable inventory has been at a high level and has been growing rapidly recently. As of now, PTA social inventory is around 3.15 million tons; ethylene glycol inventory is also not low. The current inventory at the main port in East China is around 1.39 million tons.
Overseas epidemic
A sudden epidemic has caused countries around the world to suffer had a major impact. For China, the epidemic has been controlled so far, but for other countries around the world, some countries have suffered a secondary impact from the epidemic. Especially in the United States and India, the epidemic is more serious. The number of confirmed cases in the United States has exceeded 6.67 million. India has seen the largest increase in a single day for two consecutive days, with as many as 97,000 confirmed cases in a single day.
Under the impact of the epidemic, the GDP of various countries around the world has declined.��Among them, the actual year-on-year GDP decline of 13 countries exceeded 10%; India, Spain, and the United Kingdom even shrank by more than 20%. In the United States, GDP fell by 9.1% year-on-year in the second quarter, or an annualized decline of 31.7%, the lowest since 1947.
It is said that the textile market is “three-thirds dependent on domestic trade and seventy-seven percent dependent on foreign trade.” Under the situation of the epidemic and economic downturn, foreign customers’ procurement of textiles Naturally not as good as in previous years.
In September, the market seems to have released signals that the market will improve, and the operating rates of various links have been continuously increased. However, behind the superficial prosperity, we are still paying attention to various negative factors, not only It is due to inventory, epidemic situation, and macro-political factors, etc. We cannot blindly produce.
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