After polyester yarn prices rose for two consecutive days on the 23rd and 24th, the price of polyester filament yarn increased again on the 28th!
The polyester yarn quotation of a FDY factory in Shaoxing was partially raised by 50 yuan;
A major polyester yarn manufacturer in Shengze, Jiangsu Up 50-100;
FDY, a major mainstream manufacturer in Shaoxing, partially rose 50-150;
DTY, a major mainstream manufacturer in Zhejiang, rose 50-100 individually;
……
In early September, the price of polyester yarn rose. However, in the middle of the month, due to the negative factors of the sharp drop in crude oil prices, the price of polyester raw materials fell across the board, driving the price of polyester yarn to decline. part of the previous rise. In mid-to-late September, polyester filament yarn prices started a slow upward trend. In recent days, due to serious losses in polyester filament, factories have gradually increased their willingness to limit production and protect prices. Coupled with the replenishment node at the end of the month, polyester filament prices have steadily increased.
As of now, the price of polyester filament FDY150D is concentrated at around 5,450 yuan/ton, the quotation of POY150D is concentrated at around 5,080 yuan/ton, and the quotation of DTY150D is concentrated at around 6,475 yuan/ton. Around tons.
Pulse rise in production and sales
The continued rise in polyester yarn prices has brought about a pulse-like increase in production and sales. On the 23rd and 24th, stimulated by rising polyester prices and the approaching downstream weaving replenishment node, production and sales exceeded 100 for two consecutive days. Subsequently, production and sales fell slightly. Previously, due to the continued low price of polyester filament, the poor order situation of weaving manufacturers and the increasing financial pressure, polyester filament was mostly bought and used. Therefore, the price of polyester yarn is now rising again, and some downstream manufacturers still have the need to replenish their positions. Therefore, on the 28th, polyester yarn production and sales rose to around 90%, and the best can reach 120%.
With the price increase of polyester yarn and the improvement of production and sales, Behind the scenes, the later trend of polyester yarn is actually a combination of bad and bad news.
Polyester yarn load is expected to decline, which will support the price
After the start of this year, affected by the global pandemic, the situation in all aspects of the polyester industry chain was not ideal, especially at the weaving end, where the performance was even more outstanding, with gray fabric inventory reaching a new high. As downstream weaving production and sales are difficult to stabilize, the inventory of polyester manufacturers continues to rise, and the inventory of various polyester filament products is difficult to decrease for the time being.
However, when the inventory of polyester manufacturers is high, the load of polyester manufacturers has always been high. In the past half month, the operating rate of polyester manufacturers has begun to decline slowly. Currently, the load of polyester manufacturers has dropped to around 91%. In terms of polyester filament, the operating rate has also declined slightly, to around 80.3%.
From the statistical data of China Silk City Network , now the overall polyester market inventory is concentrated at 35-44 days; in terms of specific products, POY inventory is around 13-17 days, FDY inventory is around 24-35 days, and DTY inventory is around 32-44 days. The inventory of polyester yarns is high, and weaving manufacturers only purchase polyester yarns during major sales or when they are in urgent need, so the future of polyester yarns is worrying. There are now expectations of lower polyester yarn loads, which has a positive boost for its inventory, and feeds back to the price level, forming an effective support.
Weaving inventories decline slowly, and the trend of clothing companies closing stores continues
In the past two days, “Zara’s parent company lost 1.5 billion in the first half of the year, and its market value evaporated by more than 200 billion” has become a hot search. The financial report released by Inditex Group, the parent company of global fashion giant Zara, showed a net loss of 195 million euros (approximately RMB 1.5 billion) in the first half of this year. At the same time, Inditex Group will also join the wave of store closures. It revealed in its first quarter financial report, It plans to close 1,000 to 1,200 stores.
Not only Zara, but also the “black swan” The retail industry has been shrouded. Since the spread of the epidemic, thousands of companies have gone bankrupt and liquidated.
TailoredBrands: TailoredBrands plans to close up to 500 stores and lay off approximately 20% of its workforce before the end of the second fiscal quarter;
Canada Goose: 125 employees have been laid off, accounting for approximately 2.5% of its global workforce;
H&M Group: 450 employees and 800 consultants have been laid off. As of the end of March, 3,778 stores were temporarily closed;
American clothing giant PVH Group: plans to lay off 450 office employees in North America, equivalent to 12% of its total white-collar employees in North America, and close 162 Home retail stores…
In addition, in the UK, in addition to Victoria’s Secret, there are also established department store retailer Debenhams, well-known British brand KathKidston and online men’s clothing retailer TMLewin They have all announced closures in recent months.
Various incidents indicate that clothing companies are still in dire straits.��At the same time, even though the epidemic has been basically controlled in most countries around the world, some countries are still facing the risk of a second rebound of the epidemic, and their demand for clothing consumption has dropped significantly. According to the latest survey, about two-thirds of Americans say they have reduced their consumption during the epidemic. Since February, the number of deposits in Americans’ checking accounts has increased by $1.3 trillion, a 56% increase. Affected by the epidemic blockade and other factors, many Americans have reduced their consumption on dining out, clothing and travel.
Terminal consumption has declined, and for weaving manufacturers, shipments cannot keep up with production. Since September, although some manufacturers have said that orders have improved compared to the previous period, and the loom startup rate has also increased compared with the previous period, from the perspective of gray fabric inventory, although there has been a decrease, the magnitude is not significant. The current gray fabric inventory in Shengze area remains the same. It is around 44 days. The high inventories in the downstream are difficult to alleviate for the time being and the demand for terminal clothing consumption is reduced, which is a major negative for the upstream polyester filament.
According to the current form of weaving and clothing, and Judging from the regular operation of polyester yarn this year, this wave of price increases is likely to be unsustainable, but it can stimulate the purchasing enthusiasm of weaving manufacturers to a certain extent to alleviate temporary inventory. Whether it is polyester, weaving or clothing, they are all “grasshoppers on a rope”. To a large extent, both prosper and lose.
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