On October 12, with the approval of the State Council and the approval of the China Securities Regulatory Commission, short fiber futures were officially listed for trading on the Zhengzhou Commercial Exchange.
On the day of listing, short fiber futures rose straight up after opening, with an increase of 8.0%, reported at 5832 yuan/ton, directly reaching the daily limit.
Short fiber futures will hit the daily limit when they are launched, and it is only in October A microcosm of the hot textile market, in addition to polyester staple fiber, polyester filament, nylon, spandex, viscose staple fiber, cotton, and cotton yarn have all increased to varying degrees.
Especially for cotton yarn products that can replace polyester staple fiber to a certain extent, the price increase from the end of September to now has exceeded 1,000 yuan, which is shocking. tongue.
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But there is no reason for such a “crazy” scene in the raw material market.
“Double cycle” engine starts
During the “Eleventh Golden Week”, the situation of “highway traffic jams and people-watching in scenic spots” that occurs every National Day holiday has appeared again. It can be clearly seen that the domestic consumer market has basically Returned to normal levels.
As early as July and August, Boss Bu generally said that after foreign trade was restricted this year, more focus would be shifted to the country, “Double Eleven”, ” Double Twelve” and regular autumn and winter clothing are already a hot spot in the textile market, and orders are mostly placed during this period, and merchants begin to stock up.
In addition to domestic orders, the recent return of foreign trade orders has also been obvious. Before the National Day, there was market news that a large number of orders that originally needed to be completed in India were returned to India. Some textile companies gave up the National Day holiday and began to rush for export orders.
It is not without reason that foreign trade orders return to China. Compared with China, the textile industries in countries such as Southeast Asia and India basically do not have a complete industrial chain, so they often only undertake certain steps in the entire manufacturing process. However, under the epidemic, the normal social order in some countries has been disrupted to a certain extent. On the one hand, the risks have increased, and on the other hand, the costs have also increased. Therefore, even if the price in China is relatively high, the quality is reliable and the risk is low, and orders have returned. No wonder.
Domestic trade and foreign trade markets are both important parts of the textile market. In this year’s global epidemic situation, we have proposed the “double cycle of domestic trade and foreign trade” “Driven by the grand strategy, now that the dual-cycle engine is running, it has naturally driven a wave of shipments, and it is not surprising that the market has improved.
The price of raw materials is “too good”
While the market is improving, raw material prices are still low. Compared with the normal prices in previous years, the current price of raw materials is really “too good”.
Take polyester staple fiber as an example. Polyester staple fiber is mainly used in three major fields: textile yarn, accounting for 77%, and end products are clothing, Home textiles, decorative fabrics, etc.; nonwovens, accounting for 17%, and end products are wet wipes, masks, etc.; filling, accounting for 6%, and end products are winter clothes, pillows, toys, etc.
Therefore, the demand for textile terminals will directly affect the price of polyester staple fiber. Affected by the new crown epidemic this year, like other textile raw materials, the price of polyester staple fiber There was a big drop at the beginning of the year.
The picture below shows the price changes of direct-spun polyester staple fiber in the past three years. It can be clearly seen that after entering 2020, the price of polyester staple fiber Start going straight lower. In 2018, polyester staple fiber reached a peak of 11,470 yuan/ton, which is more than twice the current price of polyester staple fiber. Even in 2019, when the market was not good, the price of polyester staple fiber could still be maintained at 7,000 yuan/ton. Around tons. When the futures are about to be delivered in May 2021, the price of polyester short-term products will obviously far exceed the opening price of the futures of 5,400 yuan/ton, so it is not surprising that the price limit will rise.
Weaving companies: buy, buy, buy!
The price is so cheap and the order situation is so good, weaving companies naturally start to “buy, buy, buy.”
Judging from the operating rate, the average operating rate of water-jet looms in Jiangsu and Zhejiang has risen to 80-90%, which is basically the same as the same period in previous years.
From the perspective of polyester production and sales, according to data monitoring from China Silk City Network, for three consecutive days after the National Day holiday, the polyester factory’s polyester The average production and sales of silk exceed 100.
Although the recent market conditions Hot, but at the same time we must also see that the improvement in the market is very seasonal. Fabrics such as nylon and polyester taffeta that can be used for autumn and winter clothing have received great attention in the market. Welcome, but the market feedback for fabrics with strong spring and summer attributes like imitation silk is relatively average.
The bad news is that the current market cannot drive all products to sell. , some conventional products are still plagued by high inventory; the good news is that such a market is not a “one-and-done sale”, but has a certain seasonality, which also shows that the current hot market will have continuity in the future.
Judging from the current situation, weaving companies are “buying, buying, buying”, and the raw material market may continue to “rise, rise, rise” for some time.
Postscript
When the market hit the bottom in April, the textile market began to slowly pick up. In fact, everyone knows that the increase in raw material prices is one of the consequences after the textile market recovers to a certain extent. It is an inevitable result, but it is difficult to predict the exact time. Now, with the improvement of domestic and foreign trade, and with the east wind of “Golden Nine and Silver Ten”, the market finally appears like what it should be in the peak season. The daily limit of polyester staple fiber futures is just a microcosm. After being suppressed for a whole year, the trend of rising raw material prices is far from over.
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