During the National Day this year, most areas in northern my country experienced a “rare” severe cooling, as if winter had entered overnight. The sudden cooling has quickly boosted the sales of winter clothing fabrics, especially down jacket fabrics. Bosideng, a long-established and leading down jacket company, performed extremely well during the National Day holiday.
Taobao data shows that from October 1 to 6, the sales of Bosideng brand flagship store increased by 574% year-on-year to 19.1 million yuan, and the number of sales increased by 300% year-on-year to 18,000 pieces. , the average sales unit price increased from 613 yuan in the same period last year to 1,034 yuan in 2020. The early rise in volume and price of down jackets tells the entire textile and apparel market that the huge demand for winter clothing can make a difference.
So after the National Day, the entire textile market was shaken by the news. Trucks loading goods from gray fabric factories had to queue up, and trucks entering warehouses from dyeing factories also had to queue up. There were not enough trucks in the market. Immediately afterwards, the warehouses of some weaving factories became empty and their stocks were gone, and some dyeing factories began to run out of stock. Is it true that just a piece of “cold winter” news can stir up the textile market that has been silent for more than half a year? It’s obviously impossible.
Finished product market stocking and winter clothing fabric orders “crash”
Everyone who is familiar with the fabric market knows that around October and November in the second half of the year, the finished product spot market will usher in a relatively concentrated year-end stocking. This is the more common “market order” in the market. During this period, the order volume is large, the types are limited, and the duration is short.
This is the time now, and the orders are coming more obviously than in any previous year. The main reason for this situation is that the epidemic abroad is severe and a large number of overseas clothing companies have closed down. This has led to a significant decrease in clothing and fabric trade over the past six months compared with previous years. Now that their inventory has bottomed out, it is time to replenish supplies.
The other is the domestic finished fabric market. Also due to the epidemic, the number of orders in the first half of the year was extremely limited, causing many domestic textile and garment companies to miss the spring and summer market and have high inventories. The lack of confidence in the future market has led to insufficient enthusiasm for stocking in the spot market. Now the backlog of replenishment demand has exploded, and various orders have been put into battle.
Furthermore, the current orders for winter clothing fabrics have overwhelmed the market and reached the highest peak this year. It is obviously not comprehensive that the current textile market is all attributed to the “cold winter” economy, but the market’s hype based on the expectation of “cold winter” is a bit excessive.
It is normal for the temperature to drop now, but a cold winter is still unknown
Recently, snowfall and cooling have occurred in many places in northern my country Does it have to be cold winter? In fact, in early October, in northern my country, especially Inner Mongolia and Northeast China, it is normal for temperatures to drop to freezing point and snowfall. In other words, after entering October this year, although the temperature in most parts of the north and central and eastern regions is lower than normal, this season is about to get colder. Breaking the freezing point, first frost, snowfall, etc. are also on schedule. It is not caused by the “La Niña” phenomenon.
And many experts believe that the “La Nina” event this winter is only predicted to happen, and it is still unknown whether it will actually happen. Even if a “La Niña” event occurs, it will not necessarily lead to a drop in temperature, because in the context of global warming, the cooling it causes is not enough to offset the warming caused by human activities. To take a step back, even if it is a cold winter this year, will it really drive the sales of winter clothes and cold-proof fabrics? It’s really hard to say!
Everyone in the fabric market knows that the winter of 2016-2017 is predicted to be a cold winter. So at the end of 2016, the market was flooded with all kinds of winter clothing fabrics, and all textile bosses were preparing for the coming cold winter. As it turned out, it was indeed a cold winter that year, but the winter clothing fabrics on the market did not have a hot sales scene.
Because the Spring Festival was in January that year, and the period before the Spring Festival was not cold, but the period after the New Year was cold. But the habit of most consumers is to buy winter clothes before the new year and prepare spring clothes after the new year. So no matter how cold it is after the new year, the sales of winter clothing on the market cannot be compared with the cold weather before the year.
Of course, many traders feel that it does not matter whether it is really a cold winter this year, as long as they can successfully obtain orders in the near future. However, if terminal clothing shipments are not smooth, there will inevitably be delays and arrears in payment, which may ultimately “lose both sides.” Moreover, the inventory of the textile industry chain is nothing more than transferring from the raw materials and fabrics side to the clothing side. The order shortage of upstream raw materials and fabrics may be exacerbated in the coming year. In general, in the face of the sudden improvement in the market, textile people still need to look at it calmly and rationally, and must not blindly follow the crowd. After all, the end of the year is approaching, and there are still many places where money is needed.
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