After the National Day holiday, the editor returned to work after a long vacation, and suddenly found that the market conditions had become unrecognizable. Before the holiday, it was still a lifeless scene, but after the holiday it became a lively scene. .
Raw materials are skyrocketing, dyeing factories are bursting out, and freight is tight… Textile people are busy and happy. It is really not easy to see such a situation in 2020 when the epidemic is raging.
Demand or hype? Is this a question
Requirements?
The current market outbreak is actually not without foreshadowing. Strict domestic anti-epidemic measures have controlled the domestic epidemic to a very small range, and domestic demand for textiles has basically returned to the level of the epidemic. The previous normal level;
In terms of foreign trade, it can be seen from the previous news about the return of orders from India that some countries in Southeast Asia and India have been unable to complete the international division of labor in textiles due to the impact of the epidemic. It is impossible to deliver goods on time with quality and quantity. Although foreign trade demand has shrunk, some rigid needs are still there after all, so some orders naturally flow to China.
However, this return did not only start in October. As early as the first half of the year, when the international epidemic just began to break out, the Southeast Asian textile industry had already suffered a devastating blow, but due to ” The overall number of orders in the market has increased during the “Golden Nine and Silver Ten” periods, and this situation has come into public view.
However, when the hot market lasted for more than half a month, something different appeared on the market. sound.
Hype?
Mr. Yang, a fabric merchant who has been working in the textile industry for more than 20 years, said that the current market may have a very heavy hype component, and terminal demand It simply cannot be like this, so the current hot situation is unsustainable and will fade away soon. Therefore, whether buying raw materials or taking orders, Mr. Yang is very cautious in his operations.
After experiencing overcapacity in 2019 and the new crown epidemic in 2020, textile people are generally accustomed to “take one step and look at three steps”. Now they are in the strongest market of the year. There are many textile people who hold similar views to Mr. Yang, and this can also be seen from the production and sales of polyester.
According to the data monitoring of China Silk City Network, after entering late October, except for October 21, the average production and sales of polyester filament of polyester factories in Jiangsu and Zhejiang areas continued to exceed 100 in the previous week. The momentum has dropped to about 70%. On the one hand, this is because the replenishment of weaving companies has basically ended, and on the other hand, it is also because current cloth bosses have become more cautious about the purchase of raw materials.
Why is it called hype?
The epidemic is raging, and the price of cloth has doubled
Before the market becomes hot, various finished gray cloth products are sold News of the goods can be seen everywhere, making the price of gray fabrics at a low price lower than the market price or even lower than the cost price. Take gallbladder fabric, which is very popular recently, as an example. The lowest selling price of 380T polyester yarn has been as low as 1.3 yuan/meter. After October, as the market became popular, the price began to rise sharply. At this stage, it has risen to close to 2.4 yuan/meter. Yuan/meter, the price has almost doubled.
Judging from the global epidemic situation, as of October 24, the cumulative number of confirmed cases of new coronary pneumonia worldwide has exceeded 42.4 million. Many European and American countries continue to close cities, and the demand is still not there. full recovery.
Although demand will drive up prices, it is difficult for demand that has not fully recovered to double the price of gray fabrics. Many traders in the market also stock up based on the mentality of buying up and not down. goods. Therefore, rather than saying that the reason for the current hot market is the recovery of demand, it is more appropriate to say that it is the transfer of inventory.
Retain foreign orders? It is impossible and unnecessary
There is another hot topic of speculation recently, which is the flow of foreign orders to China. There is a voice in the market saying that as long as these orders are retained, If we don’t let it flow back, the market will continue to be hot, but this is impossible.
Although the global textile industry is constantly moving from China to Southeast Asian countries and India, because the local area has no other advantages except labor costs, most of the current production is Some lower-end products.
From this logic, most of the products included in the orders flowing into China from foreign markets this time have been basically eliminated by us, with low technical content and high labor costs. More sensitive.
In normal times, domestic textile companies also look down on the profits from this part of the order.�It’s just that because of the shrinking global demand due to the epidemic, these orders have become “life-saving straw” that consumes inventory and production capacity, so they have become popular.
So once the epidemic situation improves, these orders will inevitably flow back again. There is no way and no need to stay in China.
Postscript
For textile people, last month they were still thinking about how to survive. , the market situation suddenly turned like this this month, which really caught people off guard. However, whether it is a reduction in inventory or an increase in orders, it is a good thing at this stage.
Therefore, seize the present and face the future with caution. In any case, the most difficult time is over. </p
