Introduction
On Monday (November 9), thanks to the lack of success in the US election With the certainty of implementation and the progress of Pfizer’s vaccine, the global market is boiling, and the outlook for fuel demand has improved. International oil prices once rose by more than 10%, then narrowed slightly in late trading. As of the close, U.S. oil rose by more than 8%.
On Tuesday (November 10), driven by the sharp increase in international oil prices, the resonance effect of the polyester industry chain has also begun. Many factories have begun to tentatively increase prices, with some specifications increasing by 50-100. Yuan/ton, production and sales have also rebounded significantly, with individual manufacturers’ production and sales as high as 600%, and the average production and sales are also 200-300%.
On Wednesday (November 11), due to the unexpected decline in API stocks and Saudi Arabia and Iraq Confirming adherence to the OPEC+ oil production reduction agreement, international oil prices continue to rise. Polyester manufacturers have also followed suit, and most manufacturers have raised their quotations or reduced early discounts.
A POY manufacturer in Xiaoshan area raised its quotation by 100 yuan/ton;
The discount for polyester yarn from a major factory in Taicang has been reduced by 100 yuan/ton;
The FDY portion of a major factory in Shaoxing has increased by 50-100 yuan/ton
……
The polyester market once again ushered in a “carnival” after more than half a month. “This wave of polyester filament price increases is mainly following international oil prices.” A market source said.
Indeed, the early stage affected the textile industry There are two main points of concern: one is who will win in the U.S. election, which will bring a different pattern to the future Sino-U.S. trade; the other is that the counterattack of the epidemic in Europe will largely lead to the cancellation of orders again. , loss. Now, two good news broke out one after another in one day. No wonder the market, which has been silent for a long time, will boil! Teng! rise! Come!
Supplement? Don’t want to make up for it? Textile boss thinks so!
Obviously, for this round of market conditions, both texturing factories and weaving factories have a certain amount of replenishment, but compared with the previous round of market conditions, the intensity is slightly lower. It is inferior and lacks the motivation to continue to rise. Although there are several textile bosses around the editor who have entered the market to replenish their stocks, they have different views on this market situation!
From the perspective of production and sales data, on November 11, the production and sales of polyester filament in Jiangsu and Zhejiang areas fell back. The average production and sales of mainstream manufacturers were around 80%-100%. Compared with the previous day, there was a decline. It can be seen that the downstream Manufacturing companies are not doing enough to chase the rise.
Continue to wait and see and purchase as needed
Mr. Wang, who owns 300 looms and produces imitation silk series, said: We have not purchased again in this round of market conditions, and have been purchasing raw materials based on orders. Recently, we have very few goods on the market. The factory only relies on orders to maintain production, and the inventory of gray fabrics has barely increased.
Inventory is low, appropriate replenishment
Manager Shen of a company with more than 400 water-jet looms said: Look at the raw materials this week The price was about to rise, so I bought half a month’s worth of supplies on Tuesday. The raw material inventory in the factory was running low, so I took advantage of this opportunity to purchase.
The person in charge of another textile factory that makes Oxford cloth also said that there is currently very little original inventory left in the factory, and the orders on hand can last until the end of November, so they have recently replenished half a month’s supply. I also have a poor grasp of the market outlook and dare not operate at will.
During the visit, nearly half of the textile bosses expressed caution about the stocking up. It can be seen that the current market situation is not the same as last time, stimulating most downstream production companies to replenish their stocks, and many textile bosses still maintain a wait-and-see attitude.
On the one hand, it is because the crazy market in the early stage has passed. At present, orders for autumn and winter cold-proof clothing fabrics are slowly being placed. Although there is a Double Ten However, the order volume is generally not large, and the overall demand in the domestic trade market is average; on the other hand, in the foreign trade market, under the influence of the new wave of epidemics, end customers are slow to place orders, especially in previous years, which should have started in the spring of next year. In summer clothing fabric procurement, the order volume this year is still poor, and market confidence is lacking. Under the influence of these negative attitudes, textile bosses are more cautious in purchasing raw materials.
Rising? Not rising? The market says so!
A big reason for the rise of this round of market is that the price of crude oil, the most upstream raw material, has risen sharply, and polyester raw materials have followed suit slightly. Based on the cost aspect, With the support of polyester filament, the slight rise in polyester filament in the short term is still not a big problem.
Today, polyester filament production capacity is relatively concentrated. Stimulated by good news, large manufacturers are generally willing to increase prices. After all, although the current polyester price isThe price has increased by 100-300 yuan/ton compared with the lowest period, and is still at a cyclical bottom.
In addition, a few months have passed since the large-scale centralized replenishment in early October. The raw material reserves of downstream production enterprises are not high. There is a demand for stocking in the market, but it is just one short. catalyst. Therefore, after the raw material end releases a rising signal, some manufacturers will stock up, which can take as little as a week and as long as a month.
In addition, as news of the vaccine spread, the WHO also stated that due to the extraordinary work currently being carried out around the world, the direction and situation of the epidemic may be fundamentally changed in March next year, and a vaccine is expected to be launched. For textile bosses who have been troubled by the epidemic for a long time, this undoubtedly sees hope for next year. Perhaps the market will pick up in the first half of next year.
“If the vaccine can be released smoothly, it will undoubtedly be a great benefit to the global economy. Due to the impact of the epidemic this year, our orders have shrunk by nearly 40%, although 10% Since last month, orders have increased slightly, but they are not enough to make up for last year’s volume. Only when the biggest black swan is gone can we do business with peace of mind.” said Mr. Zhang, a foreign trade boss.
It can be seen that as long as the epidemic is under control, the prosperity of the textile and garment industry can be restored, and then the market prices of upstream raw materials can be driven from the bottom up. This is also a key factor in promoting the continued rise in the price of polyester products. However, the current good news about the epidemic only boosts confidence, and no orders have been implemented. The subsequent market sales will largely depend on the double 11 replenishment orders and the double 12 orders.
The editor believes:
In any case, the current tone of a slight increase in polyester filament prices in the short term can be determined. For some Manufacturers with a small inventory of raw materials can consider appropriate replenishment, but as there are still many uncertainties in the market, it is not easy to be overly optimistic about the stocking of raw materials. After all, the epidemic has not yet been truly controlled, whether it is domestic demand or the “cake” of the foreign trade market. It hasn’t gotten bigger!
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