For most textile people, 2020 is definitely a difficult year! From the domestic lockdown at the beginning of the year that delayed the start of construction, to the subsequent spread of the epidemic around the world, it has caused huge losses to the global economy.
When the epidemic first spread around the world, textile people still hoped that foreign countries could control the epidemic through their own efforts like China. However, it was not until November that Europe began to lock down cities for the second time. Foreign trade orders were cancelled, and fabrics turned into inventory piling up in warehouses. Only then did everyone truly realize that vaccines are the only way out for global control of the epidemic.
The good news is that the vaccine people are waiting for is finally coming!
On December 2, local time, the British medical and health regulatory agency officially announced that the Pfizer vaccine has received emergency use authorization, becoming the first country in the world to start nationwide vaccination. The British government said: “The vaccine will be available across the UK starting next week.”
AFP reported that Vladimir Putin asked health officials to start a large-scale coronavirus disease 2019 campaign next week (COVID-19) vaccination, and stated that Russia has produced nearly 2 million doses of the “Sputnik V” vaccine.
Canadian Health Minister Patty Hajdu said: “The news of the approval of the Pfizer vaccine in the UK is encouraging. The review of the Pfizer vaccine being carried out by Health Canada is expected to be completed soon! We will pass the approval of the Pfizer vaccine and the provinces Cooperate to ensure that all Canadians are vaccinated!”
According to CNN, French Prime Minister Jean Castex said at a press conference on Thursday that France’s new crown vaccination will be completed in “a few weeks.” Starting from “within”, people can choose freely.
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As the world’s largest consumer market, although China’s textile exports to European and American markets are gradually being overtaken by emerging markets such as Southeast Asia, on the other hand, Southeast Asian countries also import yarns and fabrics from my country to their own countries for reprocessing to a large extent, and their final export destinations are still European and American countries.
Therefore, while the vaccine news is fermenting on a large scale, the polyester filament market has ushered in a long-lost boom, and weaving companies have Start stocking up on ingredients.
On December 4, according to data monitoring from China Silk City Network, the polyester filament market in Jiangsu and Zhejiang regions is booming. The average production and sales of mainstream manufacturers are 200%-300%, and the production and sales of some factories can reach 500%.
After the outbreak of polyester production and sales on December 4, some polyester factories began to increase prices, with an increase of 50-100 yuan/ton. Up and down, it is not ruled out that polyester prices will continue to rise in the future.
The outbreak of the polyester market is just a microcosm. As the new crown vaccine begins to be widely promoted in European and American countries in the next few weeks, the textile market may see a new turn at the end of the year.
The probability of order recovery is increasing next spring and summer
The promotion and effectiveness of vaccines will take time. Even if vaccinations begin next week in the UK, Russia and other countries, they are limited by vaccine production capacity and other factors, it is optimistically estimated that it will take several months for its final effect to control the epidemic, so this year’s winter market may be missed. But on the other hand, spring and summer fabrics can catch up with the time when the epidemic is under control, and there may be a turnaround.
The editor judges that starting from next week, the UK, Russia and other countries will begin vaccinations, and various economic indicators may show a very obvious upward trend, followed by the restoration of market confidence in the future. When market confidence recovers, new orders may come. Textile companies can contact foreign trade customers in advance to take advantage of them as soon as possible.
Prices of raw materials and fabrics are rising
When market confidence is restored, the prices of raw materials and fabrics are also likely to rise.
Due to the high inventory of various gray fabrics and fabrics on the market this year, fabric prices have been at a low level, and the price of polyester filament is also very low.
In October, due to the improvement in market conditions, both polyester and fabric prices increased significantly. A textile boss who produces down jacket linings said that at that time, conventional polyester taffeta liner increased by almost 1 yuan/meter. However, after entering November, as the market enthusiasm declined, the price dropped again.
But no matter what, the current prices of raw materials and fabrics are still low compared to previous years, and there is a lot of room for increase. Therefore, when terminal orders really come in large areas, the increase will be High probability event.
It may bring a new wave of market conditions
More importantly, Boss Bu feels confident.
At the end of the year in previous years, cloth bosses are stepping up stocking up to prepare for the market in the spring of the next year. However, due to the impact of the epidemic this year, textile people have great doubts about next year’s market. Therefore, whether they are stocking up or stocking up on raw materials, they are not confident. They are afraid that they will not be able to sell the goods. Some textile companies have even taken early holidays. plan.
But when it comes to vaccines,After the news comes, the probability that the market will improve next year is greatly increased. At this time, if you stock up on raw materials or make some orders for next year in advance, your confidence will be greatly increased, and the increased confidence may bring about a new wave of market conditions.
However, we must also see that exchange rates and freight rates have recently become a very troublesome issue for foreign trade companies: the RMB exchange rate has returned to the 6.5 era, and foreign trade freight rates have doubled. Because of the need to digest inventory, many early orders received low profit margins. Now that the exchange rate has changed and shipping costs have increased, after recent shipments, the profits have turned out to be negative.
If foreign vaccines are really effective, it will take a certain amount of time for the economy to recover. Therefore, in a short period of time, the increase in domestic exports of goods may be much greater than imports, which may make the already booming economy Shipping costs for the state have increased again. Textile companies must also take this risk into consideration when accepting orders. Never accept an order only to lose money in the end.
The dawn of epidemic control is right in front of us,
I hope that those who are eagerly waiting in the dark night can wait for the dawn of dawn. !
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