Polyester filament has risen sharply for three consecutive years!
On the 11th, international oil prices rose sharply overnight. Brent broke through the US$50 mark again after more than 9 months. The price of polyester filament increased by 50-100 yuan/ton;
On the 14th, driven by the sharp rise in the main futures of PTA and MEG, the price of polyester filament rose again;
On the 15th , polyester raw materials rose strongly, with good cost support, and polyester filament generally rose by 50-150 tons/ton.
(Recent Moments of a salesperson from a mainstream chemical fiber factory)
As international oil prices gradually rise, the price of polyester raw materials is also pulled upward. In the early stage, with the support of good news such as the recovery of the domestic economy and the start of vaccination in many countries, commodity prices were also rising one after another. This wave of rising momentum has finally reached the chemical fiber market.
At the beginning of the month, after the Brent oil price reached 50 US dollars, PTA and ethylene glycol finally waited until the “spring”, and the prices also increased significantly, thus driving up the price of polyester filament. Upregulated.
The rise is not accidental, and the profits of the industry chain are at a low level
Polyester filament yarn has performed strongly recently, which is largely supported by the cost side and has bucked the trend. As early as November, due to rising inventories and frequent promotions, polyester filament yarns experienced cash flow losses in most varieties. Therefore, the manufacturers themselves did not have a strong intention to drop prices again in December. In addition, PTA’s own supply and demand, product linkage, and macroeconomics were also affected by many factors. Stimulated by positive factors, polyester filament yarn has released a rising signal.
From the perspective of industry chain profits, since this year, from PX, PTA/ethylene glycol When it comes to polyester filament, the profit level of the entire industry chain has dropped significantly, but the profits are mainly concentrated in the PTA industry. PX and polyester filament have performed poorly. Therefore, as the upstream international oil price reaches a high level, the price of polyester raw materials has risen strongly. , polyester filament manufacturers have relatively concentrated production capacity, and mainstream manufacturers cannot allow their products to remain in the era of losses or low profits. Therefore, as long as the cost side is strong in the near future, polyester yarn will also rise happily. With the recent increase in silk prices, the cash flow of polyester filament yarns has also improved.
The maintenance operations of major manufacturers have slowed down, and PTA is still relatively volatile in the short term
Based on the past “routines” of polyester manufacturers , as long as the market remains weak for a long time, manufacturers will inevitably introduce “device maintenance” plans. Since the beginning of this year, PTA prices have also been at historically low levels, and the contradiction between supply and demand has become acute. In order to alleviate the inventory pressure of more than 3 million tons, news about the maintenance of PTA equipment has also been released:
South China One A 4.5 million-ton unit is scheduled to shut down for maintenance from the 17th of this month to the 23rd, which is expected to last about 25 days;
A 1.1 million-ton PTA unit in South China has been shut down for maintenance since last weekend and is tentatively scheduled to remain in operation until the end of December;
… …
However, with the recent strong return of the PTA market, some maintenance and burden reduction plans have been delayed or canceled. As of last weekend, the average operating rate of PTA was 83.6%, which was down from the previous period. 0.20%. In the short term, the loose supply and demand situation of PTA is difficult to improve, and on the cost side, with the support of crude oil, the price trend is strong and volatile.
The silk price has been “activated”, will the downstream buy it?
With the increase in polyester raw materials, the price of polyester filament has been “activated”, but can this market last?
Judging from the most intuitive production and sales data, polyester filament did usher in moderate downstream replenishment last week, with production and sales reaching 200-500% at the highest level. This week, in raw materials Driven by the continued rise, the performance was also better than the same period last month.
“Last week, the factory replenished raw materials for more than half a month. Now the raw materials in the factory can It will be used until the end of December, and there should be another wave before the holidays.” Mr. Shen, who owns nearly 500 looms, said.
“Recently, the raw material factory said that the price of silk will rise, so we replenished some supplies. Now the factory can use more than a month’s supply, but the raw material price has increased too much recently. Our profits have been invisibly compressed again.” said another person in charge of another company with more than 300 looms producing pongee.
Judging from the current weaving market research, as the temperature drops, market goods have ushered in a wave of market prices. The market is dominated by T400, four-way stretch, and high-elastic pongee. In the autumn and winter clothing fabric market, goods are in good condition, and the trading atmosphere has obviously heated up.
More than that, as the end of the year approaches, downstream customers still have strong demand for fabrics, and orders for delivery before the year are also being placed one after another. Although the overall market atmosphere cannot be compared with previous years. , but there are still certain transaction operations.
According to the results of a previous market survey by China Silk City Network, nearly 50% of the companies participating in the survey said that the orders on hand can be executed until late December, and about 30% said that the orders can be completed by January. Half a month, based on this, manufacturers who have orders on hand are still replenishing raw materials.
However, the contradiction of overcapacity in the entire industry chain continues to ferment this year. In addition, Funds are tight at the end of the year, and the recent frequent rises in raw material prices have undoubtedly diluted the remaining profit margins of weaving manufacturers. The editor reminds all textile bosses to purchase carefully depending on the order on hand and the financial situation.
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