2020 is coming to an end. As the holiday time is getting closer, due to payment reasons, except for some orders with payment for delivery, most domestic trade orders are gradually coming to an end.
In contrast, because the Spring Festival is not celebrated abroad, foreign trade orders have become the mainstream in the market recently.
If domestic trade orders determine the development of the textile market If there is a lower limit, then foreign trade orders will determine the upper limit of market prosperity. In October this year, it was precisely because foreign orders were transferred to China that it created a rare “peak season” in 2020. After mid-November, because vaccines officially began to be used around the world, everyone saw hope that the new crown epidemic could be controlled. , there was another wave of stocking in the market, and foreign trade orders began to pick up to a certain extent.
In 2020, when the epidemic is raging, it is naturally a good thing to have an order to do, but after taking the order, it becomes extremely difficult to complete it.
The price is difficult: you will be deducted if the price is lowered
<p align Mr. Wang, the person in charge of a simulated silk fabric manufacturer, said that the export market of simulated silk this year has not been good, resulting in a large amount of inventory on the market and a serious oversupply. Therefore, traders often push prices very low, with almost no profit. Not only that, while keeping prices down, there will also be all kinds of nitpicking. In previous years, some small mistakes that were acceptable and unavoidable in the production process will become reasons for deducting money this year, which further reduces the already small profits. .
Mr. Wang’s experience is not an isolated case, but a common phenomenon every year when the market is not good. In this year’s epidemic environment, the poor sales of imitation silk have been even more severe. “Eat to death.”
Rising raw materials: not losing money has become the biggest luxury
While profits were squeezed to the extreme, raw material prices began to rise on a large scale. First came nylon, spandex, and finally polyester filament. The price of gray fabrics also increased to varying degrees driven by raw materials.
Trader Manager Yang complained that there was no profit from taking orders now, and the price of raw materials has risen again, making the cost more expensive. Several orders are even at a loss. Now It is the greatest luxury to be able to finish a few orders in hand while maintaining capital.
Freight: Containers need to be “lotted” to try for luck
After the goods are made, it is troublesome to transport them out.
The resurgence of the epidemic abroad has greatly affected local production, and the demand for Chinese manufacturing has only increased. Coupled with the lack of overseas manpower and the inability to unload cargo, a large number of containers have been piled up in European and American ports. Containers “go and never come back”, which also makes many cloth bosses watch a large number of orders and produced products, but they just can’t be shipped out. This situation has lasted for half a year. For this reason, the advance booking time for exporters has been continuously extended, from one week in advance to one month in advance. Sometimes they even need to lottery to try their luck.
As the end of the year approaches, the situation of “it’s hard to find a box” has not improved, and has even intensified. Boss Youbu jokingly said in the circle of friends that his favorite call now is “The cabinet has arrived.” “.
Although low profits, rising raw materials, and difficult transportation have made orders “tasteless to eat and a pity to throw away”, many textile workers are trying to reduce inventory. Under such circumstances, I will still bite the bullet and take the order. However, the resurgence of overseas epidemics and the discovery of mutated viruses may cause a “draining blow” to market demand.
Is the vaccine still effective as the virus mutates? ?
News shows that in the past 14 days, people infected with the mutated new coronavirus have been found in nearly 20 countries. The Japanese government announced that starting from December 28, it will suspend the entry of new tourists worldwide.
The market performance in the past period, whether it is an increase in raw material prices or an improvement in foreign trade orders, the basic logic is based on the fact that vaccines can control the epidemic. However, the virus is mutating faster and faster now, and it is unknown whether the vaccine can have a good effect on the mutated virus.
Fauci, the top infectious disease expert in the United States and director of the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases, said in an interview on Thursday that current polls show that 60% of Americans are willing to get vaccinated. However, the proportion of immune people must reach 80% to 85% to form true herd immunity. Even if there are no surprises in the distribution and effectiveness of the vaccine, it will take at least the third quarter of next year for the United States to achieve herd immunity.
Once the vaccine is ineffective against the mutated virus, the textile foreign trade market may suffer a devastating blow, and the market may once again change back to what it was like in the first half of 2020. For textile companies, it is really not easy to survive another “2020”.
After January, weaving companies will start the last round of stocking up at the end of the year. It can be foreseen that raw material prices may continue to rise by then. Because of the mentality of “buying up, not buying down”, the market performance may still be good. Although profits from foreign trade orders have been severely squeezed, it is still better than nothing.
On the other hand, the mutated new coronavirus is spreading again around the world, casting a shadow on the prospects of vaccines. Textile companies need to do a good job at the end of the year. The market will still be poor in the first half of next year. Be mentally prepared and leave a way out for yourself.
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