On the last trading day of 2020, the offshore RMB exchange rate against the US dollar successively rose above the three levels of 6.51, 6.50, and 6.49, with the highest appreciation reaching 6.4895, setting a new high since June 2018.
On the first trading day of 2021, the RMB exchange rate had a “good start”, and the onshore RMB pair The U.S. dollar exchange rate and the offshore RMB exchange rate against the U.S. dollar both rose above the 6.5 mark and rose to the 6.4 era. Not only did they both hit new highs in the past two and a half years, they also exceeded the January upper limit previously predicted by the agency.
According to statistical data, throughout 2020, the central parity rate of RMB against the US dollar has appreciated cumulatively by 4513 basis points, the appreciation rate reached 6.47% (6.9617 reported on December 31, 2019), which was the second annual appreciation after 2017.
Profits disappeared for no reason
Since the second half of 2020, the RMB has started to In the “up, up, up” model, the RMB exchange rate against the U.S. dollar returned to 7 yuan in the middle of the year. After that, the trend was strong and continued to appreciate for more than 5 months. Entering mid-November, the RMB continued to appreciate strongly, breaking through the 6.5 mark.
The continued appreciation of the RMB is not good news for textile foreign trade bosses. Because many foreign trade companies generally use USD accounting and RMB settlement.
When the RMB exchange rate appreciated from 7 to 6.5, the original exchange rate of 200,000 US dollars in RMB shrank from 1.4 million in the previous period to 1.3 million, and the middle 100,000 yuan was lost for no reason. Therefore, even if the domestic and foreign trade boss receives an order during this period, the exchange rate loss is likely to erode the original order profit.
No wonder during that period, many textile bosses said they did not dare to take orders. Will not quote. “Due to the impact of the epidemic this year, many orders from Southeast Asia have disappeared. In order to retain customers, the profit point we quoted for other orders is not high. Generally, I will add 0.5 to the exchange rate to quote. This operation has been safer in the past. , to avoid the risk of intermediate appreciation. However, the RMB has appreciated wildly this year, and we will no longer quote prices for recent orders.” said Mr. Shen, a foreign trade boss who makes polyester taffeta and Oxford fabrics.
Well-known banks predict: RMB appreciation will exceed 6 in 2021
2020 is recognized worldwide In this magical year, under the influence of the super black swan of the “COVID-19 epidemic”, all walks of life have been affected to varying degrees. China was the first and most effective to control the epidemic. Import and export trade has resumed in an orderly manner, and the RMB has appreciated. form effective support.
Draged by the continued aggravation of the epidemic, the U.S. economy is recovering slowly. The widening differences in economic fundamentals between China and the United States also support the strengthening of the RMB. Judging from the current epidemic situation, continued cold temperatures will further aggravate the spread of the epidemic. , there is still great resistance to the short-term recovery of the U.S. economy, so there is still room for further appreciation of the RMB against the U.S. dollar.
Standard Chartered Bank predicted the “eight black swan” events in 2021 in the early stage, calling them “unlikely to occur, and once they occur, it will subvert the financial market.” One of the impacts That is, “the exchange rate of RMB against the US dollar rises to 6.” It can be seen that professionals still hold expectations for the appreciation of the RMB in the later period.
Bottom-Bounce! The foreign trade life in 2021 will be a mixture of sorrow and joy
Since this year, foreign trade textile workers have endured more. The market once bottomed out in the second quarter, and overseas orders have been facing difficulties due to the epidemic. The dilemma of being “cancelled and delayed”. However, with the recovery of domestic industry, overseas production is facing stagnation. In the fourth quarter, foreign trade also accepted many orders transferred from India and Southeast Asia, and the market was once hot.
A trader previously said: “Our order volume this year is actually about the same as last year. Last year, many orders were not placed with us and were transferred to Southeast Asia. But this year, China was the first to control the epidemic and has controlled the epidemic. After comprehensive consideration, they transferred this part of the order back.”
In late December, the speed of foreign trade orders has slowed down. On the one hand, it is because the overseas epidemic continues to ferment. In the early stage, due to the vaccine brought The positive effects of the epidemic have been diluted. Although it is said that overseas cross-border e-commerce is performing strongly, it is not enough to make up for the physical consumer market, so the speed of placing some orders has slowed down. On the other hand, the skyrocketing sea freight and the difficulty in finding containers have also made it more difficult for companies to receive orders. big.
More than �A textile boss complained to the editor that due to the doubling of sea freight, the original “sweet and sour” order has become “wasted work and no money.” “A small cabinet used to cost 900 US dollars, but now it costs 3,500 US dollars. It’s too deceiving.” said foreign trade salesman Xiao Huang.
The source of all these negative factors points directly to the epidemic. Now that New Year’s Day has passed, the situation in European and American countries that are on vacation is worrying, especially the increasing number of confirmed cases of new coronavirus variants, which has made the market, which was originally confident about economic recovery in the first half of the year, full of uncertainties.
Currently, many textile foreign trade bosses say that foreign trade orders before the Spring Festival this year have shrunk significantly compared with previous years. Now they are afraid to accept some large orders and mid-term orders for fear of RMB rise, freight costs, and raw materials. , market vitality is average.
However, in the new year, even if the foreign trade market will encounter a lot of resistance, China’s strong manufacturing production capacity is there, and orders from many countries with severe epidemics will still be transferred. Coupled with RCEP , China-EU agreement and other favorable policy orientations, the foreign trade market in 2021 will embark on a bright road.
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