On March 9, as international oil prices soared, polyester filament prices rose again:
A large factory in Tongxiang raised its polyester yarn quotation by 50 yuan today;
Another large factory in Tongxiang raised its quotation by 50 yuan; The factory’s polyester yarn quotation increased by 50 yuan;
A major major factory in Shengze raised the price of some types of polyester yarn by 50-100 yuan today;
A major factory in Xiaoshan raised the price of polyester yarn by 50-100 yuan today. 100 yuan
……
The upstream is still “rising” “Rise and rise”, the downstream no longer “buy, buy, buy”
However, what is different from the beginning of the new year is that although the price of raw materials continues to “rise and rise”, the cloth boss This time, there is no more “buy, buy, buy”.
Mr. Huang, the person in charge of a weaving company, said: “After experiencing the ups and downs of raw material prices in 2020, our company is extremely sensitive to raw material price fluctuations. Now the higher the raw material prices rise, the more important it is for us. It means that the greater the risk, the less we dare to buy. Unless we receive an order, we will just buy and use as we go.”
The wave of price increases at the beginning of the year was mainly due to two reasons. Caused by: First, although there was a certain increase in raw materials before the year, the overall price was still at a low level; second, driven by upstream raw materials, downstream polyester factories followed the trend.
Based on their experience in previous years, downstream traders do recognize this logic. They feel that raw materials will continue to rise in the future, so they scan the market in large quantities and weaving companies remove them. Inventory, we start to purchase raw materials, work overtime for production, and when the sales of raw materials are good, we start to continue to increase prices, which creates a cycle.
But this cycle is missing a very important link, that is, terminal demand. Whether it is a weaving company or a trader, the money on hand is limited. If you want to continue the cycle, you will eventually have to sell the goods. But based on what the editor has learned from the market, The current fabric market has not yet fully started.
There are also bosses who have questions. It is obviously March. Where is the “Golden Three” promised, in fact During the peak season of “Gold, Three, Silver and Four”, there was not always a steady stream of orders. In the early stage, the main focus was on accumulating conventional products. However, this step was advanced this year, and the market seemed a little deserted.
When all the good news is exhausted, it is bad news
There is a saying in the stock and futures markets that “when the good news is exhausted, it is bad news” “Bad”, the situation is similar for current polyester raw materials.
First of all, when there is not much improvement in the downstream, the rise of polyester yarn still needs to be driven by the upstream, but the crude oil futures at the source have recently risen to 70 US dollars. Even under optimistic estimates that the global COVID-19 epidemic will be controlled, major institutions’ expectations for the highest point of crude oil futures in 2021 are only US$75. Therefore, the potential for international oil prices to continue to rise is already very small.
Secondly, weaving companies feel that the current raw material prices are expensive, but in order not to lose money, they can only increase the price of the gray fabrics they produce. However, as soon as the price of gray fabrics increases, traders’ buying enthusiasm drops. , it is difficult for traders to accept such high-priced gray fabrics when terminal orders have not been placed.
Finally, although the business of weaving companies was generally good some time ago and the inventory was cleared a lot, these cloths did not flow to the final consumers, but were hoarded in the trade. In the hands of traders, because they buy them early and in large quantities, the gray cloth in the hands of traders is generally cheaper than the newly produced cloth by weaving companies. As the price of raw materials continues to rise, the price difference in the middle is getting wider and wider. Here, Before some cloth is consumed in large quantities, it will be difficult for the actual transaction price of gray cloth on the market to really rise, and it will be difficult for high-priced raw materials to be accepted.
Of course, it is difficult to say that it is difficult to solve this problem. It is also very simple to say that it means that the cloth in the hands of traders must be transferred downstream, to clothing companies, and to consumers. However, this requires real fabric orders and the gradual progress of the market.
In the short term, polyester yarn prices lack the motivation to continue to rise. However, on the other hand, upstream raw materials are currently mainly stable, and there is little possibility of a sharp decline. </p
