Recently, various hot events have emerged in the market. The global epidemic has rebounded again due to the sudden attack of the new Omicron virus strain. Many routes have been closed and shipping costs have increased. Polyester manufacturers have reduced production and guaranteed prices due to market fluctuations… Near the end of the year, these The news is “even worse” for textile workers. It was previously said that there might be a wave of orders at the end of the year, but with these unexpected events, the already dull market became even more bleak.
The rebound in crude oil is short-lived, but PTA continues to fall
The resurgence of the epidemic is a “death blow” to crude oil. Coupled with the release of strategic reserves by many major consuming countries, crude oil staggered down by nearly 13% last Friday. However, since this week, crude oil has rebounded, with an increase of more than 6%. It is expected to show a volatile trend in the short term. If it falls back and breaks the low again, it will continue the weak downward trend. As a raw material for polyester, PTA has fallen sharply after the early oil price plunge. Although oil prices rebounded this week, it is like a “flash in the pan”. The demand-side inventory continues to accumulate and processing profits are compressed. There are many planned maintenance devices in the early stage of December. The production and sales of polyester factories downstream of superimposed PTA are average. Moreover, the December contract of Hengli Petrochemical will be reduced by another 30% on the original basis, with a total reduction of 60% and a supply of 40%! The overall supply and demand structure shows a weak trend. Even if crude oil rebounds, PTA prices can only run weak overall.
Cost collapse, polyester prices have shrunk
The collapse of costs has forced polyester manufacturers to prepare to jointly reduce production! As for polyester yarn, there was partial discount promotion yesterday, with production and sales accounting for only 62.4%. The promotion continues today, with a maximum promotion of 400 yuan/ton! The current price of polyester filament POY 150D is 7,250 yuan/ton, the price of polyester filament FDY 150D has dropped to 7,450 yuan/ton, and the price of polyester filament DTY 150D has dropped to 8,880 yuan/ton. Nowadays, the upstream cost support of polyester yarn is no longer supported, and the trend uncertainty is high. The downstream pessimism and caution coexist. Moreover, the sales promotion in the past few days has already replenished the position. Now the market is “empty”, and the improvement in production and sales this time is limited. It is expected that polyester filament prices will still decline in the short term.
“Omicron” attacks many countries, shipping freight rates rise
The new strain of Omicron has the ability to infect more quickly than Delta. Cases have appeared in many foreign countries, and some countries have even closed entry. For textile companies, the biggest problem is the large-scale suspension of flights. It is very difficult to do foreign trade business this year. Many foreign trade companies have started domestic sales this year. In the preliminary survey, some companies said that container cabinets are very tight. Now he was even more caught off guard. Drewry’s World Container Index Composite showed rates from Shanghai-Rotterdam rose 1%, or $75, to $13,475 per 40-foot box. Likewise, the Shanghai-New York spot rate rose 1% to $13,230 per feu. The Baltic Dry Bulk Index can also show that shipping growth has continued to rise since this week. Nowadays, due to the suspension of flights, whether it is Southeast Asia or the US route, people can’t help but feel “overwhelmed”. Shipping costs in many Southeast Asian countries have increased, and “it’s hard to find a container” will still happen.
The end of the year is approaching, but there are endless worries. Some bosses have already started to give factories a holiday in advance. The situation in the upstream is not very clear yet. Bosses who rely on stocking up at the end of the year must keep their eyes open and be cautious. The most important thing is to reconcile accounts and collect payments in a timely manner, so that the money is firmly in hand.
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