Introduction
Crude oil prices have returned strongly to the upward path, returning to $72 in just a few daysUSD /Bucket, ending12Month9DayWTIThe crude oil price is72.67 USD/barrels, which was previously said to be greatly affected by the cost endPTA has also taken a turn for the worse in recent days, rising by 205 yuan in three days /Tons, ending12months span>8The daily quotation is4600yuan /tons.
Not only are the benefits on the cost side emerging, polyester production and sales are also increasing on12month7 The volume was increased, with production and sales reaching 246.8% on that day. Although production and sales fell back the next day, this was also due to the completion of downstream replenishment.
So the price of chemical products in the current market has almost increased, so will the next price increase be our polyester filament?
Cost recovery supports reproduction
Crude oil is still rising from today (12month9) , it is mainly affected by the weakening of the Omicron virus, the virus tends to develop with low toxicity, and the panic factor gradually weakens, and now WTI crude oil has also returned72.36USD/ barrel, Brent crude oil immediately returned to 75USD/ barrels are about to return to their peak of 80. The current trend of shock is relatively strong.
Driven by the relative strength of crude oil, PTA and MEG also stopped falling quickly. As crude oil began to rise, bulk chemical commodities all rose, giving polyester yarn a certain cost support. Among them, as of 12month8, PTA Quotation4600yuan/ton, MEGQuotation 4890yuan/tons.
Epidemiccontrolbringsfrequentbenefits
The impact of the epidemic has lasted for two years. In people’s minds, it has always been an insurmountable hurdle. People in the market often worry about whether their orders will be canceled or reduced due to the epidemic. This kind of worry , it will be verified every time a new virus appears or a regional epidemic breaks out.
As mentioned above, the current weakening of the impact of Omicron is essentially due to Pfizer saying that the company’s third dose of vaccine can act on the Omicron virus. Not only that, there is also news in China Specific drugs have been developed for the new coronavirus epidemic, which may be able to alleviate the current situation and allow the market toregain confidence.
Production capacity increases, demand is weak
But there are two flowers blooming, one on each side. Although there are frequent good news for polyester, and it goes beyond the above two points, including the previous ones11 span>Self-disciplined production reductions began at the end of the month, but not long after the production reduction, new production news has emerged, which will be 2021The production will be put into operation from the end of 2022 to 2022. The total number of polyester filaments will be approximately 250250 span>Accounting for 28% of the total planned production quantity.
Currently, the production capacity of polyester filament yarns is already in excess. If next year’s production plan is implemented, the gradually increasing inventory due to sluggish production and sales will become higher and higher without relief.
Not to mention the downstream market that is already planning to start the Spring Festival holiday early. The downstream demand for polyester yarn has become a rigid purchase. Due to too many uncertain factors such as the epidemic, large-scale replenishment at the end of the year seems to no longer occur. I still remember that when we conducted market research last month, the textile boss predicted that the market would be good at the end of the year, but now the domestic epidemic situation has also increased, and various places have begun emergency prevention and control. Can this wave of market conditions come as promised? However, there is no need to worry too much. The reason for the decrease in monthly orders in December is also due to the upcoming Spring Festival and uncertain delivery times, which cannot be generalized.
Although polyester cost support is gradually returning, the balance between supply and demand is still missing. This is also the biggest obstacle to polyester factories on the road to raising prices, and the control of the epidemic will revive the market. The most direct factor of confidence, no matter how you say it, with the support of many favorable factors at this stage, the price of polyester yarn is likely to rebound slightly in the short term, but the price of polyester yarn in the future will still be determined by the activity of the market.
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