China’s official manufacturing PMI fell to 49 in July, falling below the boom-bust level; Caixin China’s manufacturing PMI in July recorded 50.4, down 1.3 percentage points from June, indicating a decline in manufacturing prosperity. Continued pressure on employment and insufficient demand remain the main difficulties facing the current economic recovery. (Note: PMI index refers to the Purchasing Managers Index, which is an index compiled through monthly surveys of purchasing managers and can reflect the changing trends of the economy.)
Escaping July and entering August, we are one step closer to the traditional peak season in the second half of the year. Can textile people start stocking up to prepare for the peak season?
Crude oil suffered setback at August opening
On the first trading day of August, international oil prices plummeted. The main contract of WTI crude oil futures fell by more than 6% during the session, and the main contract of Brent crude oil futures fell by more than 4% during the session, once falling below the integer mark of US$100/barrel. As of the close of the day, the main contract of WTI crude oil futures closed at US$93.89/barrel, a decrease of 4.80%; the main contract of Brent crude oil futures closed at US$100.03/barrel, a decrease of 3.79%.
According to foreign media reports, under pressure from the international community to curb rising oil prices, Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports surged to the highest level since April 2020. Tanker tracking data collected by the agency show that Saudi Arabia’s maritime transport volume reached about 7.5 million barrels per day last month, and the revised figure for June was 6.6 million barrels per day.
The sharp rise and fall of crude oil prices in the past two months has become the norm. It is nothing new. The National Textile Congress can look at this matter with a normal mind. Polyester prices will fluctuate with the cost sides of crude oil and PTA, but in fact these fluctuations fluctuate. It won’t be very big. Now that OPEC has a new secretary-general, the new official has three priorities. These three pillars will definitely directly affect the downstream. And now that OPEC production has increased, crude oil prices will definitely go down in the short term in the first half of the month. a few days.
Polyester prices are dynamic and stable
Let’s first compare the price of polyester yarn on March 1 this year with the current price to see what changes have occurred in the past half year. The first is the price of polyester yarn on March 1: 150D FDY: 8,400 yuan/ton, 150D POY: 8,000 yuan/ton Ton, 150D DTY: 9,600 yuan/ton; yesterday, August 1, the prices of polyester yarn with the same specifications were 8,450 yuan/ton, 7,950 yuan/ton, and 9,100 yuan/ton respectively. It can be seen that except for DTY, which has a price difference of 500 yuan/ton, FDY and POY have only increased by 50 yuan/ton in the past six months.
When looking at the polyester price chart, we can see that in the past half a year, we have only seen the bottom once, but everyone should have an illusion that at the end of every month, it seems that they have bottomed out. This feeling comes from the polyester factory. There will be two promotions at the end of each month to make you feel like you are making a lot of money. But fortunately, textile people have already gained experience in purchasing raw materials. Most of them purchase raw materials based on immediate needs, and there is rarely a purchase method for stockpiling. The stability of raw materials is the biggest good news for weaving companies. Only with stable costs can we ensure that our profits will not suffer too much. No matter whether it is quotation or procurement, we no longer have to compete with polyester factories.
Polyester production and sales fluctuate in pulses
The cautious procurement methods of weaving companies have also resulted in insufficient production and sales of polyester factories. In July, polyester yarn prices first declined and then increased. In the first half of the month, polyester yarn prices continued to fall due to insufficient support from the cost side. In the second half of the month, with the support of the cost side, polyester yarn prices continued to decline. It began to fluctuate and rise. At the same time, weaving companies judged that the price of polyester yarn had reached the bottom and could be purchased. Polyester production and sales surged on the 3rd.
If you think about it carefully, this situation may look familiar. As mentioned above, crude oil fell sharply on the first trading day of August. What about June? Crude oil prices surged in the first half of the month and plummeted in the second half of the month. We might as well boldly speculate that if the demand side does not improve, the cost side will see the same phenomenon – a sharp rise and fall due to the pull of various factors.
Conclusion
Time has entered August, and most textile bosses must be looking forward to the traditional peak season in September. According to the rules of previous years, the market situation in September will be a little bit different in late August, so the editor also I dare not say what the market will be like this month, but it is certain that in the first ten days of August, the price of polyester yarn will still be affected by the cost side, but considering that the polyester factory has cleared the inventory last month For a large part, polyester yarn prices are expected to remain volatile in the short term.
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