This month has just begun and polyester yarn has already begun to increase in volume. The polyester factory has announced that it is recommended to purchase for urgent needs. On Friday last week (September 2), polyester manufacturers offered discounts on polyester prices, but after production and sales increased, the discounts were immediately canceled, and today (September 5), many polyester manufacturers raised polyester prices. 100.
This makes people imagine that “Red September” is coming?
Polyester factory load increases
After entering September, the polyester load, which had previously remained at around 65%, rose to 70.85% last weekend, an increase of 6.81% from before. This represents a significant increase in supply, the impact of external factors and the substantial destocking boosted the mentality of the industry. , some early production reductions and maintenance equipment increase the load.
After the load increases, the biggest challenge for polyester factories is whether Jinjiu can bring about the desired effect. From the current point of view, the volume of autumn and winter fabrics has indeed increased compared with before, and the most important point is that, The operating rate of downstream weaving has increased significantly. Weaving companies that were on high-temperature holidays or reduced production have restarted. Therefore, the increase in supply will not affect the oversupply of polyester yarn in the short term.
Polyester stocks dropped significantly
Under the influence of several consecutive high production and sales, the dilemma of high inventory in polyester factories has finally been alleviated. According to statistics from Silkdu.com, the overall inventory of the polyester market is now concentrated in 23-27 days; in terms of specific products, POY The inventory is around 23-27 days, the FDY inventory is around 17-26 days, and the DTY inventory is around 21-26 days. It is obvious that there is no longer as high an inventory as the previous average inventory of about a month.
The decline in polyester inventories is also a good confirmation that polyester factory oversupply will not occur in the short term. Therefore, the supply and demand of polyester yarn in September are in a relatively balanced state, and polyester inventories have also declined as well. In terms of weaving, due to the placement of autumn and winter orders, while the start-up rate has increased, the inventory of gray fabrics has decreased, and the market has recovered. Some companies responded: “The fabrics produced now are all shipped on the same day.”
Although polyester yarn is now at a very good price point from the perspective of supply and demand, the news is still too scarce.
It is difficult to support polyester yarn at the cost end
Judging from last week, it is estimated that crude oil prices fell by nearly 10% last week. Fortunately, in terms of PTA, due to the tight supply of PX and the continued insufficient supply of PTA, the price of PTA has been relatively strong, supporting the stability of polyester prices. , and today (September 5) the OPEC+ alliance is expected to discuss production cuts at the meeting, which has led to a slight rebound in crude oil prices, but the weak global economic performance has restrained the gains.
With the relative lack of news at this stage, the upside potential for crude oil may be limited. In the long term, crude oil prices may not be strong, polyester filament will lose cost support, prices are unlikely to rise, and will continue to fluctuate. Although the operating rate of the downstream has increased, it is still mainly for rigid needs. From the perspective of production and sales, the pulse-type production and sales market that originally once every two weeks may become once a month.
Therefore, judging from the current information, the future of polyester yarn is not very clear. Although the inventory has declined and the overall demand has increased, it has not yet reached the peak season expectations. Therefore, the trend of polyester yarn in the short term still needs to be observed on the cost side. , it is expected that polyester prices will show a volatile and warm trend during the week.
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