The recent US 8CPI data has caused a chain reaction in the market, with US stocks falling the most in two years. span>A shares also fell2%.
The U.S. CPI data for August was 8.3%, which was achieved despite the decline in crude oil prices. According to what the Chairman of the Federal Reserve said some time ago, the Federal Reserve will adopt “hawkish” measures in the future. If inflation continues, it will continue to raise interest rates. The Federal Reserve’s interest rate hike is like a “star attraction” to absorb global capital. Other major currencies, including the euro, Japanese yen, pound, and renminbi, have experienced significant depreciation.
There are predictions that even if the Federal Reserve no longer raises interest rates, most governments around the world will go bankrupt by the end of 2023 at current interest rates.
At the same time, another change occurred in the Russia-Ukraine war. Judging from the limited information obtained on the Internet, Ukraine seemed to have launched a counterattack, while Russia was strategically shrinking for some reasons. The final result was that Russia withdrew. It originally occupied part of the territory, but the loss of troops was not large. In retaliation, Russia began to destroy civilian facilities in Ukraine and dragged the war into a protracted war.
Whether it is the Russia-Ukraine war or the high CPI in the United States, it is bad news for the world economy, but it is not entirely the case for Chinese textile people.
Some are happy and some are sad
September is the peak season for the market. Orders for autumn and winter fabrics and clothing are basically placed in September every year. However, the market in September this year seems a bit deserted.
Due to the pessimistic judgment on the market in the next few years, both clothing brands and retail giants have tightened their money and focused on ensuring cash flow. Therefore, it is impossible to stock up on goods as generously as in previous years. Even when prices can be lowered, Try your best to lower the price.
Of course, there are many companies that are good at accepting orders. This year’s foreign trade has become the most powerful engine for domestic economic development, which is also determined by the general environment.
On the one hand, due to excessive money printing, inflation in European and American countries is very serious; on the other hand, due to the new crown epidemic, European and American countries have experienced serious labor shortages. WHO statistics show that the number of people suffering from the sequelae of the new crown in Europe is as high as1700Ten thousand people, labor costs have surged. Over time, the productivity of goods decreased, but the price increased.
Everyone is saving money. The prices of goods in Europe and the United States have increased, and the cost-effectiveness advantage of China has been reflected. Even if there is still a gap in quality, in the current economy, as long as it can be used, what else is needed? bike.
Therefore, under the “star-attracting method” of the United States, money has flowed from Europe, Japan and other countries to the United States, but many industries have been taken over by China. Even Japan and Germany, the traditional manufacturing giants, have experienced deficits, which has created some high-end industries. When it comes to the issuance of high-quality foreign trade orders, the top domestic textile companies are reluctant to receive orders, and dyeing factories that produce high-end products need to queue up.
We can even see that my country’s automobile exports in the first half of 2022 were 1.2 million vehicles, and automobile exports have always been As a symbol of a high-end industrial country, this is completely inconsistent with the traditional understanding of China’s manufacturing industry in the past.
Cruel capacity clearance
After the continuous “explosion of production capacity” starting in 2016, weaving production capacity has become excessive and has reached the stage of capacity clearance. The process of clearing production capacity is inherently cruel. The fittest survive and backward production capacity is eliminated. This is a general law of economic development. The epidemic that began in 2020 has intensified the production capacity clearing. The cruelty of the Qing Dynasty.
Especially this year, although many companies have continued to receive orders, many companies cannot operate at all. The average operating rate of looms is less than 7%, and the operating rate of printing and dyeing companies is insufficient /span>6 It’s not like the traditional peak season at all.
But the fact is that with higher and higher wages and increasing environmental protection concerns,In the face of an increasingly volume market, companies that use obviously outdated old machines to produce polyester taffeta, pongee, and imitation silk with no guaranteed quality have no room to survive.
Delicious cake
Due to the epidemic and the United States’ “star-attracting method”, the production costs of traditional developed countries are getting higher and higher. Coupled with the resource crisis caused by the Russia-Ukraine war, the normal production of some chemical companies has been affected. At this time, China, the only country capable of meeting this demand, became the hot potato. After so many years of development, China does not lack technology, but lacks markets and opportunities. In the past, these opportunities were tightly held by developed countries through various restrictions. Without orders and the stock funds required for their own research and development, most companies would be discouraged. But now they are also crossing the river and cannot protect themselves, so now they can It is said to be the best opportunity for domestic manufacturing to occupy the world’s high-end market.
However, not all companies are qualified to occupy these markets. Only companies whose technical level can approach or even catch up with developed countries are qualified to share this big cake. But there are many more companies, due to lack of “good teeth”, that can only compete with domestic companies of the same quality, Vietnam, and Myanmar. The difficulty of surviving until the end is “hell-level”.
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