According to the Russian TASS news agency, on the morning of September21 local time, Russian President Vladimir Putin delivered a public televised speech to the nation. , announced that partial mobilization will be carried out in the Russian Federation from now on. After the mobilization order was issued, crude oil, PTA and ethylene glycol futures indexes began to rise.
A polyester factory said that it may increase the price of polyester yarn the next day.
However, the situation took a turn that night. On September 21local time, the Federal Reserve announced an interest rate hike75 basis points. In the subsequent press conference, Fed Chairman Powell said that in order to bring the inflation rate back 2%and hold it steady, will work to raise interest rates and keep them high until inflation comes down.
As soon as the Fed’s “hawkish” remarks came out, the market began to take a sharp turn again.
As of the close of the day, the price of light crude oil futures for delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange 11 fell1 US dollars to close At 82.94US dollars per barrel, a decrease of 1.19%; 11The price of London Brent crude oil futures for monthly delivery fell0.79 US dollars per barrel, closing at 89.83USD, down 0.87%.
The series of things that happened on September 21 are a microcosm of the international situation in recent times. The Fed’s interest rate hikes and the Russia-Ukraine war have caused The influence pulls back and forth, affecting the fluctuation of bulk commodities. Textile people have seen the prices of raw materials rise and fall as a result.
But whether it is the Federal Reserve raising interest rates or the Russia-Ukraine war, there is the same “big enemy” behind it, and yes, it is the European countries.
European energy security is threatened
For a country, energy and resource security are an important part of national security and a top priority in the game of great powers. That is why the Middle East, which is rich in oil and gas resources, has been in chaos for many years. Europe relies heavily on imports of oil and natural gas from Russia, especially the Nord Stream 1 natural gas pipeline, which is the “blood vessel” of Europe. In order to ensure energy security, the EU and Russia also cooperated to build the Nord Stream 2 pipeline, which was about to be opened. The Russia-Ukraine war started, and international energy prices soared. , European crude oil and natural gas are even more priceless. There is no way, who makes Russian oil and natural gas not free and undemocratic! (The United States, China, India: You are right, just sell it to us)
The Fed’s interest rate hikes will cause a siphon effect on the US dollar and lower the exchange rates of other currencies against the US dollar. Therefore, we have seen a historic scene where the euro is cheaper than the US dollar. However, the mainstream of international energy prices are still priced in US dollars, which is equivalent to a disguised form. This has further pushed up energy prices.
So we see that Germany, as a major manufacturing country, AugustPPI soared to an astonishing level year-on-year span>45.8%, this data can be roughly understood as the increase in raw material prices.
Europe is deindustrializing, China is making progress
Due to its first-mover advantage, Europe has controlled a large number of high-end manufacturing industries for a long time. When it comes to the textile industry, everyone will think that China is the strongest, but the most advanced technology and the cake with the highest added value have always been in the hands of European and American countries. The same is true for the upstream chemical industry in the textile industry.
The person in charge of a company that develops high-end textile materials said that when the overseas epidemic just started in 2020, they wanted to produce a high-end protective clothing, but this technology was only available in Europe at the time. There were only a few factories, but Europe was closed at that time and the factories couldn’t open. In the end, we didn’t take an order with a very high price.�.
However, due to lack of energy and soaring energy prices recently, the production capacity of many chemical plants has been limited. Although large plants can still sustain it, some smaller companies simply cannot survive. Europe even began to seek deindustrialization.
News on September 19, the German BASF Group decided to invest 10 billion billion, Build a world-class integrated chemical industry base in Zhanjiang, Guangdong, China. This project has been discussed one after another for several years and has made little progress. However, after the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian war, progress suddenly accelerated.
Recently, PTA has such high profits but its operating rate has dropped, mainly because foreign PX production capacity is limited and they want to start production. There aren’t that many ingredients left.
We can even see that China’s export volume in the first half of 2022 is 120 million vehicles, The total number of China’s exports in 2000 was only 1.7 million vehicles.
Electric blankets, down jackets, whatever keeps you warm is sold
Two days ago, I saw a very interesting piece of news published by CCTV News. It mainly talked about the substantial increase in exports of heating equipment such as heat pumps, electric water heaters, heaters, and electric blankets to Europe, and there was an “explosion” among manufacturers. “single” phenomenon.
The high temperature this summer has been unusually high. If past experience is followed, this winter may be unusually cold. This is not good news for energy-scarce Europe, but it may not be so for Chinese textile workers.
Without Russian oil and gas, Europeans will inevitably need to purchase a large number of goods to survive this winter. In addition to some heating equipment, winter clothing is also indispensable, especially clothing with outstanding thermal insulation effects such as down jackets. It is the key export product in autumn and winter, and it may be even better this year.
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