Starting from the National Day, due to the sharp increase in crude oil prices, the rising channel of polyester filament has been directly opened. So far, polyester filament has “rised for five consecutive years”. As of now, the overall quotation of enterprises is 150-300 yuan/ton compared with before the holiday. Unequal increases. When polyester yarn started to rise, the purchasing enthusiasm of downstream companies was also mobilized to cover positions appropriately.
Strong cost support
As OPEC+ insists on the most significant production cuts since the COVID-19 epidemic in 2020 to support oil prices, international crude oil has risen for the fifth consecutive time during the holidays, and the increase before and after the holidays can reach more than 10%. Crude oil, which had previously seemed weak, is looming. Price sprint to $100/barrel. Affected by this, the polyester industry chain is red. As of yesterday’s price statistics, the price of PX (Taiwan) increased by 70 US dollars/ton, or 6%, compared with before the holiday; PTA’s internal price increased by 170 yuan/ton, or 3%; MEG’s internal price increased by 170 yuan/ton, or 3%. 200 yuan/ton, an increase of 5%.
Therefore, driven by such a strong price, the price of polyester yarn has also been pushed up. Specifically: 150D FDY is at 8,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 300 yuan/ton from before the holiday, an increase of 4%, 150D POY is at 8,700 yuan/ton, an increase of 4%. 81,500 yuan/ton, an increase of 270 yuan/ton, or 3%, from before the holiday. 150D DTY was at 9,450 yuan/ton, an increase of 150 yuan/ton, or 2%, from before the holiday. Can the price increase for so many days stimulate downstream sentiment?
Production and sales can only be average
After the increase in polyester yarn, the production and sales data of polyester factories got rid of the previous sluggish state. After the price of No. 5 polyester yarn began to increase, the production and sales of polyester began to pick up. The production and sales data of some polyester factories can exceed 100, but even higher However, the data did not appear, so averaged over the entire price increase process, the company’s production and sales data are still difficult to balance, and the inventory is still increased compared with before the holiday.
Therefore, in terms of inventory, according to the statistics of Silkdu.com, the overall inventory of the polyester market is now concentrated at 23-27 days; in terms of specific products, POY inventory is around 24-27 days, FDY inventory is around 17-27 days, and DTY inventory is about 22-27 days. Again, price increases for one or two days can indeed mobilize downstream buying sentiment, but over time, it will only cause downstream resistance. Superimposed on the promotion period at the end of September, most weaving companies that just need to purchase raw materials will Companies have replenished goods in time, so the surge in production and sales has been hampered.
Downstream production enthusiasm is still not high
Another reason why production and sales can only be flat is because the enthusiasm for downstream production is still not very high. With the current market situation still not turning around, end consumer demand has not picked up significantly. The market lacks the support of large orders, and inventory is high. , weaving factories did not dare to increase the load rashly, so the actual increase was not obvious. According to data monitoring from Silkdu.com, the current operating rate of weaving enterprises in Shengze is 69.3%, which is the same as last week.
Therefore, from the comparison of upstream prices, polyester production and sales, and downstream start-up, in fact, the current logic of the market is very clear. The upstream has passed the upstream, and the downstream has passed the downstream. Everyone is thinking of ways to “save their lives”. The increase in raw material prices is Because its cost side has been rising and prices have been rising this year, it has been jumping in and out near the profit and loss line. And because the downstream enthusiasm is not high, polyester production and sales have been lukewarm, focusing on just-need purchases. Every month, the production and sales tasks are basically completed. .
From this point of view, in the short term, polyester prices will continue to rise under the influence of the upstream. However, as everyone knows, there have been endless messages recently that hope to suppress crude oil prices, and considering that downstream acceptance of price increases is limited, , so there may still be a downward trend in the second half of October.
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