Now that it’s the end of the month again, I have to chat about whether this year’s monthly month-end sale will appear in the ever-busy month of December.
Polyester factories drastically destock
As we all know, the inventory of polyester factories was ridiculously high some time ago, with almost more than a month of inventory. The reason is also very simple. No one is buying. The market of weaving companies has been relatively cold before December, and only rigid purchase of raw materials is enough. In the normal production of the factory, buying too many raw materials will only increase the financial pressure on oneself. The more no one buys, the humbler the “seller” will be. He has stepped on the purchasing node of the weaving enterprise and must promote sales at the end of the month. Naturally, the textile boss will not buy it unless there is a promotion.
However, with the recovery of logistics, coupled with the cold weather and the increase in upstream raw materials, the demand for replenishment of winter cold-proof fabrics in domestic trade has increased. The previously rigidly purchased raw materials were not enough to cope with the market conditions brought about by December. In just two weeks, the demand for cold-proof fabrics has increased. The ester factory sold goods for ten days. According to statistics from Silkdu.com, the overall inventory of the polyester market is now concentrated in 18-30 days. In terms of specific products, POY inventory is 20-30 days and FDY inventory is 18 days. -28 days is around, while DTY inventory is around 16-29 days.
Year-end maintenance coming
Due to the special nature of bulk chemicals, polyester factories cannot be like downstream weaving factories, printing and dyeing factories, which all shut down for the holidays during the Spring Festival. As a continuous production factory, workers will still have to celebrate the Spring Festival. Generally, in this kind of At that time, there were eight production lines in a workshop, and there might only be two craftsmen watching over them, and the number of workers on the lines would also decrease, from about 10 people per shift to about 5 people.
When there are not enough manpower, polyester factories usually choose to carry out maintenance at the end of the year. Firstly, they adjust the equipment and secondly, they save manpower. Therefore, it can be clearly seen that the polyester load has dropped sharply recently and has not increased. The current load of the polyester factory The average was 62.7%, down 1.2% from last week. Even if the market improves, it has not stopped the pace of reducing the workload of polyester factories. It is just a difference between taking bigger steps and taking smaller steps.
To sum up, the current polyester factory is simply in the right place at the right time and with the right people. Since its own supply, inventory and demand recovery all indicate that the price of polyester yarn will rise smoothly, not to mention the recent PTA The terminal aspect is also relatively strong. However, the editor believes that the price increase may not occur this year, and if it does occur, it will have to be delayed until next year.
We can see that the polyester production and sales that have been soaring in the past two weeks have finally been discouraged in the past two days. There are only two reasons for the decline: one is that the weaving companies have bought everything they should buy, and the other is that prices are rising every day. Who has seen it? There will be resistance.
First of all, let’s look at the first point. Weaving companies have bought everything they should buy. The most fundamental reason for this round of polyester production and sales explosion is the recovery of the market. As mentioned above, within two weeks, weaving companies directly provided polyester The factory has used up more than 10 days of inventory, so why are they buying so aggressively? Are you stocking up on goods for the end of the year? In fact, the reason is very simple. Because the previous procurement strategy was to purchase according to the existing orders on hand, there was a sudden explosion of orders, and the preparations were not sufficient. The raw materials purchased rigidly before were not enough. Now that everyone has purchased the raw materials, production and sales will naturally decline.
The second point is more direct. No one wants to buy expensive things. Looking at the price rising by 50 or 100 every day, although the increase is indeed quite cautious in one day, but as time goes by, when you look back and add it up, what a guy! The price of more than 500 yuan has increased. This is simply a gentle blow. Therefore, the textile boss will naturally be resistant to the increase in the price of polyester. Unless it is really not enough, he will definitely want to wait for the price to slow down before buying. Input the raw materials.
Therefore, the editor believes that polyester prices will remain stable from the end of December, and if production and sales still do not improve around the beginning of January, polyester factories may start the last wave of promotions before the market closes, reaching 2019. The purpose of the warehouse is that after all, the holiday will start from 20 days. By then, the polyester factory will still be producing, but the buyers will be having the reunion dinner at home!
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